BAVARIA'S NEXT MINISTER-PRESIDENT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MUNICH 000028 SIPDIS SENSTIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV GM SUBJECT: BAVARIA'S NEXT MINISTER-PRESIDENT SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION. REFS: (A) MUNICH 15, (B) MUNICH 21 -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Bavarian Interior Minister Guenther Beckstein is expected to be elected Bavarian Minister-President in early October 2007, succeeding Edmund Stoiber. Beckstein is the longest-serving and best-known of Germany's state interior ministers. His "law and order" approach has provided Bavaria a remarkably low crime rate, but led to criticism that he is anti-foreigner. Beckstein is not afraid to criticize U.S. policy, but has maintained a good working relationship with Consulate General Munich - a relationship we anticipate will continue during his Minister-Presidency. While Beckstein is largely untested outside of the Interior Ministry, we anticipate he will work constructively with the Merkel government to the extent that doing so does not conflict with Bavaria's perceived provincial interests. End Summary. -------------- NO LONGER A BRIDESMAID -------------- ¶2. (U) Following Bavarian Minister-President Stoiber's unexpected decision in November 2005 to not take a federal cabinet position, conventional wisdom was that Bavarian Interior Minister Dr. Guenter Beckstein, at 63, had missed his best, and perhaps final chance to lead Bavaria as Minister-President. The popular and respected Beckstein had played bridesmaid twice - when Stoiber ran for Federal Chancellor in 2002 and lost, and again in fall of 2005 when Stoiber returned to Bavaria. Only at the eleventh hour of Stoiber's most recent political crisis (Ref B),did Beckstein's name surface again - this time as the compromise candidate to take over the helm of Germany's largest and most independent state from the free-falling Stoiber. ¶3. (U) In an arrangement worked-out by the Christian Social Union (CSU) leadership, Beckstein is expected to be elected Minister-President by the State Parliament (Landtag) Caucus in October 2007. He would then face the full-electorate in fall 2008, giving him, if re-elected as expected, a five-year term as Minister-President. While it is unclear if Beckstein would seek to remain in office until 2013, or turn-over the reins of power mid-term, he will be viewed essentially as a transitional leader regardless, serving until the CSU is able to agree on its next generation of leadership. �00A; -------------- -------------- GERMANY'S LONGEST-SERVING STATE INTERIOR MINISTER -------------- -------------- ¶4. (U) Beckstein is the longest-serving and best-known of Germany's state interior ministers. In October 1988, during a cabinet reshuffle following the death of Minister-President Franz Josef Strauss, Beckstein entered the Bavarian Ministry of the Interior as a State Secretary, serving under then Interior Minister Edmund Stoiber. In the 1993 succession struggle between Stoiber and Theo Waigel for the Minister-President position, Beckstein supported Stoiber and challenged Waigel openly at a district convention. After his nomination as Minister-President, Stoiber chose Beckstein to be his successor as Interior Minister -- a position he has held ever since. ¶5. (U) Guenther Beckstein was born on November 23, 1943 in Hersbruck, near Nuremberg. He is married to a teacher who he says is his best advisor, and has three children. He studied law in Erlangen and Munich and began working as a lawyer in 1971. He entered the Bavarian Landtag in 1974. From 1980 to 1988, he was Chairman of the CSU Committee on Police Affairs. In 1987, he was defeated in a bid for Lord Mayor of Nuremberg. Beckstein is active in the Evangelical (Protestant) Church of his home community, and would be Catholic Bavaria's first non-Catholic Minister-President. -------------- LAW AND ORDER -------------- ¶6. (U) Beckstein has the reputation of being a hardliner Interior Minister and, according to "Spiegel" magazine, is "the toughest of the tough." A subscriber to the "broken-window theory" of proactive law enforcement, Beckstein is proud that Bavaria has the lowest crime rate of all German states. He opposed the Schengen agreement which provided for an abolition of border controls between EU states, on the grounds that it would complicate Bavarian efforts to keep tabs on criminals and other undesirables. Like many of his CSU colleagues, he supports electronic and other surveillance of individuals and groups considered a threat to public order, including Islamists and right-wing extremists, but also groups such MUNICH 00000028 002 OF 002 as the Church of Scientology (COS). In that regard, Beckstein has been critical of the State Department Human Rights Report, which criticizes Germany for alleged discrimination against the COS and its members. ¶7. (U) Beckstein's aggressive style has led critics to argue he is hostile to foreigners - a claim Beckstein vigorously denies - unless, that is, the foreigners fall on the wrong-side of the law. Indeed Beckstein has made a point of demonstrating his "social" side, including recruiting ethnic Turkish police officers and establishing good contacts in the Muslim community. In 2006 he joined a protest march against Iranian President Ahmadinejad. Beckstein was also bestowed with the "Jerusalem Award 2006" of the World Zionist Organization and the Zionist Organization of Germany for having "broadly contributed to Jews being able to live in security and peace in Germany." -------------- A NO-NONESENSE INTERLOCUTOR -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Conversations with Beckstein tend to be direct and productive. Beckstein is usually well prepared, listens carefully, and speaks his mind bluntly. With Beckstein at the helm of the State Chancellery, we expect a very different political style than that of his predecessor. Stoiber was often criticized in recent years for exerting an almost autocratic rule, with a lack of consultation of the Landtag and national CSU Caucuses. He enjoyed the respect and sometimes admiration of his compatriots, but never their love. In contrast to the workaholic and wonkish Stoiber, Beckstein embodies more the "landesvater" type of personality with a good sense of humor and active life outside politics. His carnival costumes (such as Bavarian Lion, Madame Pompadour or Albert Einstein) are legendary. ¶9. (SBU) Beckstein is not afraid to criticize the U.S. when he feels it appropriate. Last year, in an interview with "Focus" magazine he characterized the conditions of the U.S. Guantanamo Bay detention facility as "clearly illegal," and damaging to the U.S. reputation as a human rights leader. Beckstein has also made clear his opposition to Turkish EU accession - a view in step with the CSU rank-and-file. In conversations with us, he has expressed his hope that the U.S. would be more forthcoming in sharing intelligence and law enforcement information with Bavarian authorities. He enthusiastically agreed to Consulate Munich's suggestion to have Interior Ministry officials participate in the Consulate's emergency preparedness exercises, sending two experts to the most recent crisis management exercise. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Beckstein's lack of a track-record on issues outside the security realm makes it difficult at to assess his future agenda as Minister-President. There are few public Beckstein statements on economic and social issues, such as reform of the German health care system. "Die Welt" on January 19 noted that "excursions by Beckstein into other than domestic fields of politics are practically unheard of." ¶11. (SBU) We anticipate Beckstein's relationship with Chancellor Merkel will be a net improvement over the essentially poisoned personal and professional relationships Stoiber had with Merkel. Beckstein's pragmatic approach allowed him to build a close working relationship with former Social Democrat Federal Interior Minister Schily in the Schroeder government - we would expect this pragmatic approach to underpin his relations with the Merkel government as well. Having said that, Beckstein is true-CSU, and as Germany's only one-state party with an absolute hold on power in Bavaria, the CSU is all about "Bavaria-first." When Bavaria's perceived provincial interests collide with those of the federal government, as most recently with healthcare reform, Beckstein can be expected, like his predecessors, to show his allegiance to the "Freistaat Bayern" over Berlin. End Comment. ¶12. (U) This report has been coordinated with Embassy Berlin. ¶13. (U) Previous reporting from Munich is available on our SIPRNET website at www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/munich/ . NELSON