BAVARIA'S STOIBER - BEYOND REDEMPTION?

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MUNICH 000015 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV GM SUBJECT: BAVARIA'S STOIBER - BEYOND REDEMPTION? SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION. REF: 05 Munich 739 -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (U) The political year in Bavaria began with further erosion of Bavarian Minister-President and CSU Party Chairman Edmund Stoiber's popularity - and questions about his future. Stoiber's current woes include allegations that he ordered inquiries into the private life of a CSU politician critical of him, leading to the resignation of his chief of staff. Just as it appeared Stoiber had deflected any lasting damage, he managed to upset the CSU faithful during the CSU Bundestag Deputies' annual "Wildbad Kreuth" meeting by declaring that he not only intended to run again in 2008, but remain as Bavarian Minister-President through 2013. Stoiber's apparent hubris rekindled the anger that followed his unexpected return to Munich from Berlin in fall 2005 -- and has created a buzz within the CSU and Bavarian State Chancellery that Stoiber's days may be numbered despite the lack of a clear heir apparent. End summary. -------------- The "Pauli Affair" -------------- ¶2. (U) Stoiber's latest round of troubles started with the accusation in late 2006 by Stoiber-critic Gabriele Pauli, the Christian Social Union (CSU) District Councilor (administrator) of the city of Fuerth, that Stoiber had ordered inquiries into her private life. Pauli, following Stoiber's surprise defection from the grand coalition government and return to Bavaria in late 2005, had openly expressed her opposition to Stoiber's candidacy for re-election in 2008, even running for a time a web-site critical of him. Pauli's latest accusations led to the departure of Stoiber's Chief of Staff, Michael Hoehenberger, who resigned after admitting he called one of Pauli's friends asking about her personal life, while insisting he acted without Stoiber's knowledge. In a move to put the "Pauli Affair" to rest, Stoiber belatedly agreed to meet personally with Pauli to patch things up - a meeting set to take place January 18. -------------- WILDBAD KREUTH 2007 -------------- ¶3. (U) With the Pauli Affair receding into the background, CSU party leaders kicked-off their annual strategy retreat at the alpine resort known as "Wildbad Kreuth" on January 8 with ringing endorsements of Stoiber: "Stoiber is the uncontested CSU party chairman" (national CSU Caucus Chairman Peter Ramsauer); and "will be Bavarian Minister-President well beyond 2008" (CSU Landtag caucus chairman Joachim Herrmann). While these comments, designed to show the CSU's solidarity behind the boss, elicited little reaction, Stoiber's declaration at a press conference on January 10 set off a media fire-storm: Stoiber said he not only intended to run in 2008, but remain in power through the end of another term - September ¶2013. ¶4. (U) While many in Bavaria had resigned themselves to Stoiber running again in 2008, the conventional wisdom was that he would groom a successor in the meantime to whom he would turn over the reins of power mid-term [following a vote by the Bavarian State Parliament (Landtag)] - perhaps as early as 2010. His stated plan to hold on to power through 2013 was interpreted widely as essentially a declaration that he intends to be Bavaria's Minister-President for life. This has undone much of the recovery that followed the upset over his return from Berlin in 2005 (when, in an effort to gain forgiveness, he told the CSU faithful that he had "suffered like a dog" -- reftel). The media have played up Stoiber's ambitions, even drawing parallels with the final days of Helmut Kohl's chancellorship. -------------- DEFENSE AND THE CSU -------------- ¶5. (U) While Stoiber's pronouncement dominated press play from Wildbad Kreuth, there was other news to emerge from the retreat. After federal Defense Minister Jung visited Kreuth January 10 to discuss the future of German military engagement abroad, the CSU presented a paper stating that crisis management in Europe should be Germany's first priority and that clearer criteria had to be defined for German military engagement. For the future, the CSU proposed two parliamentary votes on military engagement abroad: first, a general vote about whether to engage; and second, a vote on a detailed engagement plan. -------------- ARE STOIBER'S DAYS NUMBERED? -------------- MUNICH 00000015 002 OF 002 ¶6. (U) Wildbad Kreuth first appeared (at least publicly) like a Stoiber love-fest, with CSU Landtag Caucus Chairman Herrmann proposing that the entire caucus sign an appeal for a Stoiber candidacy in 2008, and five young CSU deputies climbing Germany's highest mountain to unfurl a Stoiber campaign poster. However, following Stoiber's statement, the wall of solidarity appears to be cracking. Respected Landtag President Alois Glueck has cautioned that elected officials remaining in office too long risk wearing-out their welcome, and that the future of the CSU's leadership would have to be reconsidered in due course. ¶7. (SBU) At Stoiber's New Years reception on January 11, State Chancellery officials told the Consul General that Stoiber was on thin political ice, and that Glueck, who had announced his retirement in 2008, was prepared to replace Stoiber in 2008, if not before, as a transitional candidate. If Stoiber does step aside, Glueck is as likely a candidate as any, given the lack of another obvious heir apparent. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Stoiber is his own worst enemy. His unwelcome return from Berlin in 2005, his initial unwillingness to meet with Gabriele Pauli, and now his brash statement of intent to overstay his political welcome have all conspired to bring his unfavorable rating among Bavarians to around 60 percent (this despite the CSU having the support of 54 percent of Bavarians polled). The latest gaffe may be Stoiber's undoing, although we anticipate he would remain in office through the conclusion of his present term ending in 2008. We also note, however, that Stoiber has a history of being the "Comeback Kid" of Bavarian politics, most recently following his tail-between-the-legs return from Berlin in 2005. Time and again he has managed to coax the party leadership to stick with him, even if reluctantly so. We expect he will play the "suffering dog" again next week when the CSU Landtag Caucus meets at Kreuth. If successful, he may prolong the Stoiber-era a little longer. ¶9. (U) This report has been coordinated with Embassy Berlin. ¶10. (U) Previous reporting from Munich is available on our SIPRNET website at www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/munich/ . NELSON