MUMBAI GOES TO THE POLLS ON FEBRUARY 1

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 MUMBAI 000038

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SUBJECT: MUMBAI GOES TO THE POLLS ON FEBRUARY 1


Summary
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1. (SBU) Residents of Mumbai and several other cities in
Maharashtra will go to the polls on Feb. 1 to elect the 277
members of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC),the
city's main municipal body. As in the past, the urban poor,
swayed by opportunistic politicians who deliver the pork shortly
before the election, will come out to vote, whereas higher
income groups will mostly avoid the polls, turned off by the
corruption and mismanagement that characterizes the BMC and many
of the city's leading politicians. Several urban groups and the
city's media are calling for the middle and upper income classes
to vote to change the political culture of the city, yet it
remains to be seen whether such voters will actually respond to
these initiatives. A shift in thinking about the city is
noticeable, however, as more of the city's middle and upper
classes become dissatisfied with a decrepit urban environment
that is not improving in tandem with the material improvements
of their personal lives. It is too early, however, for such a
trend to find its way into the election results, which remain
unpredictable. The BJP/Shiv Sena "saffron alliance" that has
controlled the BMC for the last 15 years is struggling to cope
with successive leadership crises. Many observers expected a
Congress/NCP alliance to easily come to power, yet bickering
between the two parties will likely divide their electoral base
and indirectly strengthen BJP/Shiv Sena. Communal and caste
parties hope to capitalize on the universal dissatisfaction
towards all established political parties, yet most observers do
not expect them to make much of an impact. The elections will
also test, for the first time, former Shiv Sena wunderkind Raj
Thackerey's ability to establish a foothold in the city's
politics. End summary.

Mumbai Votes On February 1
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2. (SBU) All 277 seats in the BMC are up for election on
February 1. Although authority to deliver municipal services in
Mumbai is divided among more than a dozen agencies, many of
which are controlled by the state and central governments, the
BMC is considered to be a crucially important entity, as it
controls one of the largest municipal budgets in the country.
In the sordid history of Mumbai's politics, many BMC members
have not viewed the BMC budget as a tool to service the city's
population, but rather as a vehicle for political patronage and
outright corruption. The BMC is the lead agency for delivering
the city's most basic services such as road maintenance, water
supply, and sewage removal, the purses of which offer many
opportunities for political patronage and graft. Although BMC
members receive only a modest honorarium, many past members have
grown wealthy in these positions, and thousands of candidates
are expected to compete. Political parties also view the city's
budget as a war chest to finance future state and national
elections.

A Political Shake-Up?
--------------


3. (SBU) Until recently, most analysts believed that Congress
and the National Congress Party (NCP),the so-called "secular
parties," had a good chance to win control of the BMC for the
first time in 15 years. Both sides of the governing BJP/Shiv
Sena "saffron alliance" are beset with leadership problems, and
the parties are considered to be weaker than they have been in
many years. Raj Thackeray, the nephew of Shiv Sena leader
Balsaheb Thackeray, has formed his own political party and will
likely act as a spoiler in the elections. (The difficulties
faced by the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance and the role of Raj
Thackeray will be addressed in septel.) Interlocutors agree
that Congress and the NCP will need to cooperate in order to
capitalize fully on the BJP/Sena weakness. That cooperation has
not been visible, however. Both NCP and Congress have bickered
over the number of candidates that each party should field. As
a result, the two sides recently announced that their
seat-sharing talks had failed, and each will contest the
elections independently. This failure to reach an agreement
will almost certainly split the secular vote and has provided a
major boost to the rival BJP-Sena alliance. While previously

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most observers were predicting a Congress-NCP victory, this
outcome is now much less certain. Whatever the outcome,
however, most observers think that NCP and Congress will
continue to cooperate at the state and national levels.


4. (SBU) Congress and NCP hope to capitalize on Mumbai voters'
clear and growing frustration with the BMC. In the last few
years Mumbai has experienced flooding, terrorist bombings,
increased traffic that has begun to paralyze commercial life in
the city, and a seeming lack of progress on many high-profile
infrastructure projects. The BMC's inadequate response to these
problems has led to increased allegations of corruption and
incompetence. Voters seem ready to assign blame to the
governing BJP/Sena coalition, but Congress and NCP will have to
fight off their own records of corruption and ineffectiveness at
the Maharashtra state level. Congress claims that winning
control of the BMC will allow it to obtain assistance from the
state and national legislatures that it already controls, as
well as coordinate more effectively between the many city and
state agencies that make up Mumbai's government. Most observers
agree that the stalemate between the Sena-controlled BMC and
Congress/NCP-controlled state government has contributed to the
lack of progress in upgrading the city's services.

A Third Front
--------------


5. (SBU) Many traditional supporters have their own gripes with
Congress and NCP. Dalit groups have expressed frustration with
rapes and killings that hit their own in rural India last
September. Muslims have expressed anger over the handling of
official inquiries into terrorist attacks and the lack of
progress in other high profile cases. Anant Gadgil from the
Congress Party told poloff that many Muslims had expressed
dismay about Congress' increasingly close relationship with the
U.S. Gadgil said he was concerned about Muslim voters' anger
over the Indian-US Nuclear agreement and the Saddam Hussein
execution. Bharatkumar Raut, editor of the Maharashtra Times,
dismissed these concerns, however, saying that Muslims' anger
with Congress stemmed from a perceived lack of support on
domestic issues like the reservation of parliament seats,
educational opportunities and government jobs for Muslims. Raut
told poloff that he feels the political mobilization of Dalits
and Muslims is a "silent revolution" that is not receiving the
coverage in the media that it deserves. He pointed to the
unexpectedly large rally in South Mumbai that occurred last
March in response to President Bush's India visit as an example
of the unnoticed strength of these groups.


6. (SBU) Although both Dalits and Muslims are traditional
supporters of Congress, many party leaders have expressed
nervousness that these groups will not support the party as
strongly this election. Several Muslim and Dalit political
parties have attempted to form a "Third Front" coalition that
consists of the (Dalit) Republican Party of India (RPI),the
(Muslim) Samajwadi Party, and 19 other parties. This coalition,
which calls itself the "Mumbai Vikas Secular Front" is
positioning itself to be an alternative to the other alliances,
but it too has become bogged down in squabbling over
seat-sharing, with even marginal parties demanding lots of
seats. Analysts say these broad coalitions have not been
durable in the past, but Raut suggests that even if the
coalition fails, the increased cooperation between disaffected
Muslims and Dalits could cause headaches for Congress.


7. (SBU) Poloff spoke with Ravi Bhilane, editor, and Anil Pawar,
executive director, at the Dalit newspaper "Mahanayak," and they
confirmed that there is deep dissatisfaction with Congress and
NCP among the Dalit population. They said that Dalits are
perpetually disappointed by these parties in terms of actually
fulfilling their campaign promises and said that leaders of
traditional Dalit parties like RPI are usually bought out by
Congress. Pawar said that the most authentic political party of
the Dalits is now the Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP),but that
few in the media recognize this, instead focusing on the actions
of RPI. They acknowledged that the BSP may not win any seats,
(which they blamed on careful redistricting designed to divide
the Dalit vote,) but suggested that it will nonetheless give the
Dalits a political voice and identity, which they described as

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vitally important to this population, even more than delivery of
basic services like water and sanitation.

Additional Challenges Facing Congress-NCP
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8. (SBU) Congress also has internal rivalries that may
complicate matters. Former Shiv Sena leader Narayan Rane was a
high-profile defector to Congress in 2005 and helped the party
make substantial gains in state by-elections. Some analysts
feel that a Congress victory in the BMC polls will consolidate
Rane's power and create a strong internal rival to Maharashtra
Chief Minister Vilasrao Deshmukh, who may be secretly hoping
against a Congress win for this reason. Rane will face his own
pressures from having to reward several former Sena members who
defected with him to Congress. The recent arrivals are viewed
suspiciously by many of the Congress rank-and-file, and the
resulting tension with local Congress boss Gurudas Kamat may
cause problems. Congress and NCP leaders are also nervous that
the BJP and Shiv Sena will instigate communal flare-ups as a way
to rally their base.

Are the Middle and Upper Classes Beginning to Care?
-------------- --------------


9. (SBU) About sixty percent of the city's population live
either in areas designated as slums, or on the street.
Traditionally, these groups have turned out to vote in Mumbai.
Middle and upper-middle class voters have shown little interest
in BMC affairs, not bothering to vote or even to learn the
identity of their representative. The urban poor have long
served politicians as "vote banks." Many of Mumbai's large
slums are actually highly organized urban organisms, with key
community leaders being able to sway large numbers of people.
Politicians discovered long ago that a few supporters in key
positions in the city's slums can organize large numbers of
voters and get out the vote. To secure the support of the urban
poor, politicians have delivered tangible services such as water
wells, toilets, or electrical power to slums shortly before
elections or have resorted to outright bribery, paying slum
dwellers directly to show up on election day.


10. (SBU) Such antics have alienated the better-off sections of
the city's population, who have watched in disgust as local
politics degenerated into a populist carnival for the poor,
organized by corrupt and often criminal politicians who do
little for the broader good of the city. This may be changing
now, however. Siddharth Bhatia, an editor at the Mumbai
newspaper DNA, told poloff that "the story" of the 2007
elections is the increased civic activism found among voters.
Many analysts say that because of rising incomes and the recent
high-profile disasters in the city, middle class voters are
taking a renewed interest in Mumbai's affairs. Several citizens
have started NGOs to improve the governance of the city. The
Association for Governance and Networking in India (AGNI) and
the Association for Democratic Reform (ADR) are working to boost
middle class voter turnout. In addition, AGNI is attempting to
publicize candidates' qualifications by creating a five star
rating system for corruption and good governance that they
intend to distribute through print and electronic media. The
Indian news network NDTV reports that as many as 20 percent of
this year's candidates have some form of criminal record. In
the last election the average margin of victory for the 277 BMC
wards was less than 1000 votes, and 10 wards were decided by
less than 100 votes. This suggests that efforts to publicize
the candidates' qualifications could affect the election's
outcome.

Comment
--------------


11. (SBU) None of our interlocutors expects that the outcome of
the BMC elections will have a noticeable impact on regional or
national politics in the near to mid-term. A Congress/NCP
victory, however, will accelerate the demise of the once-mighty
Shiv Sena party. It may also reveal just how much potential Raj
Thackerey has in the city's and the state's politics in the
future. Most importantly, however, it may signal the beginning
of a new political culture in the city if, in fact, the city's

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mid- and high-income groups begin to vote in higher numbers than
in the past. It may be too early for these groups to actually
express their frustration through the ballot box. A shift in
thinking about the city is noticeable, however, as more of the
city's middle and upper classes become dissatisfied with a
decrepit urban environment that is not improving in tandem with
the material improvements of their personal lives, but is
actually getting worse. End comment.
OWEN