MUCH SPECULATION, LITTLE PUBLICALLY-AVAILABLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MOSCOW 000978

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/RUS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/07/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM SOCI PINR RS
SUBJECT: MUCH SPECULATION, LITTLE PUBLICALLY-AVAILABLE
EVIDENCE IN DEATH OF KOMMERSANT JOURNALIST


Classified By: Political M/C Alice G. Wells. Reason: 1.4 (d).

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) The March 2 death of veteran Kommersant military
correspondent Ivan Safronov has sent shock waves through
Moscow's journalistic community. Investigations by the
Prosecutor General's office and the Kommersant staff have to
date produced no serious evidence that would point to
suicide, forced suicide, murder, or accident as the cause.
Against the background of the murder in October 2006 of
investigative journalist Anna Politkovskaya, the radiation
poisoning of ex-FSB agent Aleksandr Litvinenko, and other,
contract-style killings of Russian journalists over the last
several years, some have been inclined to assume the worst in
this case. The response of the Kommersant editorial staff,
however, has been more measured. While reflexively rejecting
suicide as a possibility --they point to Safronov's excellent
work and family relationships and his relatively good
health-- the newspaper has been pursuing all other
possibilities. Colleagues aver that Safronov, a retired
military officer, maintained good relations with his former
colleagues, although they acknowledge that there were the
inevitable collisions with the notoriously secretive MOD.
Autopsy and toxicology tests, due to be released March 7, may
shed some initial light on the circumstances surrounding the
reporter's untimely end. End summary.

Circumstances of Death
--------------


2. (U) The March 2 death of Kommersant military correspondent
Ivan Safronov has left colleagues at the newspaper and law
enforcement officials struggling to produce an explanation
that matches the facts as they are presently known. Safronov
plunged to his death from the fifth floor of the building
where he lived in a third-floor apartment at about 3:00 P.M.
local time. Neighbors in the building report hearing no
noise in the stairwell in the minutes preceding his fall.
Colleagues and members of Safronov's family were reportedly
not aware of any extenuating circumstances --family, work,
health-- that could have served as a proximate cause for
suicide. To a person, they reject the suggestion that
Safronov, who they described as funny, irreverent,
full-of-life, could have taken his own life.

Uncharacteristically Subdued Before Death
--------------


3. (SBU) An investigation by Kommersant staff, undertaken
immediately after news of Safronov's death became known, has
to date produced no evidence to support any one version of
what may have happened. A March 6 Kommersant article
published a record of phone calls made and received by
Safronov March 1 - 2 and journalists interviewed his
interlocutors. A few noted that the journalist seemed
uncharacteristically subdued in the last days before his
death. Also interviewed were colleagues who attended the
February 17 - 20 Abu Dhabi airshow with Safronov. They
reported that Safronov had complained of an ulcer, and had
stopped joining them for evening meals because of the
discomfort it was causing him. Safronov's doctor told
Kommersant that the journalist was being successfully treated
for the ulcer at the time he died.


4. (SBU) The Prosecutor General's office has opened an
investigation into Safronov's death under a criminal code
article covering forced suicide. Investigators to date have
established that the external injuries on the corpse are
consistent with those sustained during a fall. The results of
the autopsy and toxicology tests are to be released March 7.

Friction with Authorities in Past
--------------


5. (C) While all note that Safronov in the past had published
material that had made the authorities unhappy, and that his
death, as Kommersant Deputy Editor Ilya Bulavinov reported,
"could have been violent and connected with his professional
activities," they acknowledged that there is no reason, at
present, to assume foul play. (Safronov has had criminal
investigations for revealing state secrets opened against him
in the past, although none of them have resulted in charges
being filed. In the weeks before his death, according to
Kommersant, Safronov was reportedly writing an article about
the sale of Su-30 aircraft and S-300B (Zenit) air defense
missiles to Syria via Belarus. Kommersant reported

MOSCOW 00000978 002 OF 003


separately that Safronov had not submitted the article before
his death.)

Strong Family, Professional Ties
--------------


6. (C) In a March 6 conversation, Kommersant Deputy Editor
Azer Mursaliev was careful not to exclude the possibility of
foul play, but said he found the evidence offered to date
unconvincing. Safronov had been subdued but, Mursaliev
allowed, that happened to him from time to time. He note
that Safronov had strong family ties. His daughter was
expecting a child, and the journalist was looking forward to
becoming a grandfather. His son was soon to graduate from
school and enter an institute. Their relations were
excellent, as was Safronov's relationship with his wife. The
journalist was much loved at work, and had the complete
support of the newspaper's editorial staff.

Death an Accident?
--------------


7. (C) Mursaliev did not exclude the possibility that the
cause of Safronov's death had been an accident. He posited
that the journalist may have ascended to the fifth floor to
close a hallway window in the Khrushchev-era building and
fallen to his death in the process of attempting to
accomplish that task in the aging, poorly-maintained
building. There had been no evidence of a struggle on the
landing, Mursaliev said, and none of the building's occupants
had heard anything at the time that Safronov plunged to his
death. (Safronov, Mursaliev said, was a "big guy" and would
not have gone easily had he been attacked.) Safronov had
shown every sign of intending to return to his apartment. He
had purchased a bag of mandarins, which were left,
undisturbed, on the landing from which he fell, and he had
promised to return a phone call from a colleague after 3:00
P.M.


8. (C) Mursaliev said there were no security cameras at the
entrance to the building, as had been the case at the
apartment where murdered journalist Anna Politkovskaya lived.
He had been told that Safronov's footprints had been found
on the landing's windowsill and were being analyzed by
investigators.

Not Anti-Kremlin
--------------


9. (C) Mursaliev rejected allegations in some of the Western
media that Safronov was an opponent of the Russian
government. "He was simply a superb investigative reporter,"
he said. Although the journalist had problems with some in
the MOD, he maintained excellent working relations with many
in the active-duty military. His easy manner and military
background made it easy for him to find a common language
with military counterparts, Mursaliev said.

Foul Play?
--------------


10. (C) In a March 7 conversation a very emotional Natalya
Gevorkyan, who had worked for Kommersant until January 2007
and was close to Safronov, joined Mursaliev in excluding
suicide as a possibility. Unlike Mursaliev, Gevorkyan was
more inclined to see the death as the result of foul play,
although she was unable to supply a concrete motive. She
suggested, without proof, that "someone" had compiled a hit
list, that included Politikovskaya, Litvinenko, Safronov, and
perhaps others, or that Safronov had acquired information the
publication of which could pose problems for someone
influential. The Kommersant staff in the course of its own
investigation had made a thorough search of Safronov's
computer files and materials both at his home and office, and
had found nothing that aroused suspicion, she said. They
also, she added, had not found a draft of the Syria arms
transfer article allegedly promised to Kommerant by Safronov.


11. (C) Gevorkyan had joined much of the Kommersant staff,
many uniformed and non-uniformed military officers, and
friends in paying their paying their last respects to
Safronov at the morgue on March 7. She said that Safronov's
face showed no sign that he had been beaten. Near the coffin
were large wreaths from Boris Berezovskiy and the
Presidential Administration Press Service. The burial took
place at a cemetery on the outskirts of Moscow.

Good MOD Ties
--------------

MOSCOW 00000978 003 OF 003




12. (C) Center for Extreme Journalism Head Oleg Panfilov told
us March 6 that Safronov, whom he had known for two years,
was incapable of suicide, and he could find no convincing
explanation for the journalist's death. Panfilov had
witnessed at close hand Safronov's easy working relationship
with MOD contacts. Citing Litvinenko, he noted that those in
organizations like the military and the FSB tend to react
very strongly to any sign of betrayal by one of their own.
Panfilov had not seen or heard any sign that Safronov had
been excluded from the military fraternity before his death.
Embassy Cooperation with Safronov
--------------


13. (C) As military correspondent for Kommersant, Safronov
covered joint U.S.-Russian military exercises. He also
covered space launches and international air shows. Unlike
many military correspondents with good MOD contacts, Safronov
did not shy from contacts with the Embassy, and was frank
about his dissatisfaction with the MOD team assembled by
former Minister Sergey Ivanov. (In the wake of Safronov's
death, rumors have circulated that Safronov had compiled a
dossier of compromising materials on Ivanov.)


14. (C) The Embassy's cooperation with Safronov ended with
the 2005 Torgau exercises in Grafenwohr when, as a reporter
embedded in a Russian unit, he disclosed conflict between the
Russian and U.S. contingents over the conduct of the
exercise, which resulted in a decision by the exercise's
Russian and U.S. commanders to end his participation in the
exercise. When Emboffs last saw Safronov on December 6,
2006, he expressed his regret that we no longer closely
cooperated with him and seemed bitter and alienated.

Biographical Details
--------------


15. (U) Safronov was born in 1956. He graduated from the
Military Academy of Rocket Forces and served in the Far East,
after which he returned to Moscow, where he served in the Air
Space Forces' press division. After retiring from the
military, Safronov joined Kommersant, where he worked for the
last ten years of his life.

Comment
--------------


16. (C) As his colleagues at Kommersant note, Safronov was
not an uncompromising critic of the Kremlin like Anna
Politkovskaya or ex-FSB agenda Aleksandr Litvinenko. His
articles about defense matters were meticulously researched
and well-sourced, and he generally refrained from the
speculation and unsubstantiated allegations that mar the work
of others here. It should come as no surprise that
Safronov's colleagues across the board deny the possibility
of suicide, and it is the case that the current, difficult
circumstances in which journalists work have made many
reflexively inclined to assume the worst about the causes of
Safronov's death, but there is simply too little information
available at the present to draw conclusions that can
withstand scrutiny. Embassy will continue to attentively
follow the investigation.
BURNS