UNITED RUSSIA ACCEPTS MEDVEDEV AS CANDIDATE FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 005849 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2017 TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM RS SUBJECT: UNITED RUSSIA ACCEPTS MEDVEDEV AS CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT; PUTIN AS PRIME MINISTER Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns. Reason: 1.4 (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: The 511 delegates at the pro-Kremlin United Russia party's December 17 party congress performed to expectations, when they chose First Deputy Prime Minister Medvedev as their candidate for President. Putin confounded the expectations of some commentators by agreeing, after a week of silence, to become Prime Minister when Medvedev wins the presidential elections on March 2. United Russia's congress continued the leadership succession process with no discussion of Medvedev's candidacy, references to Putin as "national leader," and unanimity on every matter brought to vote except, interestingly, Medvedev's candidacy itself, where one convention delegation used the secret ballot to vote "no." On the organizational front, United Russia used the congress to attempt to join its party activities with its work in the Duma, and it re-shuffled some of the leadership positions to reflect in some cases the success of regional leaders in winning votes in the December 2 Duma elections. The party's renewed leadership was scheduled on December 18 to continue discussing Duma committee chairmanships and the presidential campaign. End summary. Elite in Attendance -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The high point of the first part of the October 1 -2 pro-Kremlin United Russia party's eighth convention was Putin's decision to head the party's Duma electoral list. The second part of the convention took place on December 17, steps from the Kremlin, and was attended by virtually all of the country's political elite. In addition to 511 party delegates, about two thousand guests attended the congress, among them Ukraine's Yanukovich and political leaders from Central Asia. All Kremlin-friendly political commentators were available for the cameras during the frequent intermissions, including Gleb Pavlovskiy, Aleskey Pushkov, Andrannik Migranyan, Vyacheslav Nikonov, Mikhail Leontiev, and Valeriy Fadeev. This time around, the party logo behind the dais made no reference to Plan Putin. It featured only the phrase "All-Russian Political Party United Russia - Eighth Congress." ¶3. (SBU) On the dais when the congress began were United Russia Chairman Gryzlov, Tatarstan President Shamiev, Moscow Mayor Luzhkov, and Minister for Emergency Situations Shoigu. After a fanfare, they were joined by Putin who, with candidate-nominee Dmitriy Medvedev in tow and to a standing but restrained ovation, walked from the back to the stage. Gryzlov opened what he termed the second half of the eighth congress by briefly reviewing United Russia's December 2 election success, which he attributed to "national leader Vladimir Putin." Putin Nominates Medvedev -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Putin followed with a very truncated version of his standard stump speech. After a thumbnail sketch of the chaos of the '90s, he described United Russia's Duma victory as a "convincing" one, in which an "absolute majority of Russian citizens" had supported the party, and signaled that the party is open to "dialogue with constructive opposition." With the Duma victory, Putin said, it was important to move forward, and for that reason he had insisted that the new Duma begin work on December 24. Among the outstanding issues to be addressed, Putin said, were inflation, which the government had not succeeded in controlling. As a result, he proposed that salaries of government employees be increased 14 percent as of February 1, instead of the 7 percent planned for September 1. Putin proposed as well a military pay increase of 18 percent in two stages beginning February 1, and a similar increase for pensioners and families. ¶5. (SBU) Putin used his speech to somewhat amplify earlier criticism of United Russia. The party, he said, "must change," it must rid itself of "people who do not belong." Turning his attention to Medvedev, Putin argued that the First Deputy Prime Minister had been endorsed by "parties of various ideologies," before describing their close personal relationship and noting how Medvedev had grown from being a lawyer into a "superb administrator." Putin "recommended" his nomination and, after what may have been intended to be a dramatic pause, told the audience to applause that he was ready to serve as Prime Minister if Medvedev wins, "without changing the responsibilities of the President or those of the Prime Minister." The latter phrase was no doubt inserted in order to quiet rumors that Putin might use United Russia's constitutional majority to create a parliamentary system. Gryzlov Seconds and Medvedev Accepts -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Gryzlov seconded Putin's nomination, praising Putin along the way for his personal contribution to the success of United Russia, and reminding delegates in advance of the vote on Medvedev that they "must remember all that they owe" Putin. Gryzlov highlighted the need to continue the war on poverty and corruption. While not as critical as Putin, he agreed that the "party must change" and suggested that two United Russia initiatives, "a professional team for the country" and "a school of Russian politics," could foster that change. In an effort to make Medvedev seem like a consensus candidate, Gryzlov noted that United Russia had conducted "consultations with three other parties" before endorsing Medvedev. ¶7. (SBU) Medvedev's speech accepting Putin's nomination was very brief. Tellingly, Medvedev prominently tied his fate to Putin's, telling the delegates that he could envisage his candidacy only with Putin still in government, and that he had thought it "very important" that Putin would lead the government. "I am sincerely pleased," Medvedev finished,"that (Putin) has accepted my offer" to continue to work for the good of the country. ¶8. (SBU) Discussion of Medvedev's candidacy was sidelined by delegate Gennadiy Kotelnikov, who proposed that a vote be held immediately on the nomination. Kotelnikov's proposal carried and, in the secret ballot that followed, only one delegate voted against Medvedev. Medvedev, in his brief acceptance speech, thanked the party for its trust and urged delegates to use "this opportunity that is given countries only once every one hundred years" to "make Russia stronger and build an effective civil society for all its citizens." "Together we will be victorious," he concluded. Party Changes and The New Duma -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Putin did not re-appear after the vote for Medvedev. The rest of the congress was used to approve changes to the party's structure and leadership that, it was hoped, would allow it to play a more active role in drafting legislation, which in the last Duma often came out of the Presidential Administration, as well as to make the party better equipped to keep citizens in the regions informed of its legislative work. Among the notable personnel changes: those regional leaders who delivered the best results for United Russia were rewarded with places on the Higher Council. Among the beneficiaries were Chechnya's Kadyrov, Ingushetia's Zvyazikov, Penza Governor Bochkarev, Kabardino-Balkyria's Kanukov, Tuva's Kara-ool, North Ossetia's Mamurov, and Adyghea's Tkhakushinov, all of whom delivered from 72 to 99 percent of the vote to United Russia in the December 2 elections. ¶10. (SBU) On December 18, United Russia's new leadership was scheduled to hold its first meeting in advance of the December 24 inaugural Duma session, where it is expected that the Duma Speaker and Deputy Speaker assignments will be announced. The December 18 session is presumably devoted to a continuing discussion of Duma committee chairman and deputy chairman assignments, in addition to strategy for the presidential campaign, which will begin in earnest after the new year. ¶11. (C) Comment: The December 17 Congress had none of the drama of its October 1 - 2 predecessor, when Putin's appearance on the dais produced a ripple of excitement, and his announcement that he would head the party list, a spontaneous and enthusiastic standing ovation. Anxiety about a future without Putin has been succeeded this time around by certainty that Putin is here to stay. The frequent, cloying invocations of Putin by Gryzlov and Medvedev; the unanimous votes on nearly every question; the absence of even perfunctory, discussion; and the formality of the March election that will make Medvedev President are all disturbingly reminiscent of old ways of doing business here. BURNS