RUSSIAN CONDEMNATION OF KOSOVO UDI WIDENS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 005763

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/06/2017
TAGS: PREL KV RS
SUBJECT: RUSSIAN CONDEMNATION OF KOSOVO UDI WIDENS


Classified By: Political M/C Alice G. Wells for reasons 1.4 (b/d).


1. (C) Summary. At a December 5 press conference, FM Lavrov
criticized "Western partners" for undermining the Troika's
efforts to find a negotiated solution by continuing to
support Kosovo's "inevitable" independence. Memorial, a
Russian human rights organization often critical of the GOR,
issued a statement supporting the GOR position. Arguing that
a Kosovo precedent was inevitable, Memorial warned of
consequences for the frozen conflicts. Ruling party member
of the Duma International Relations Committee Zatulin
dismissed press reports of Duma Speaker Gryzlov's promise to
review Abkhaz and South Ossetian requests for recognition as
"distorted," but underscored GOR and public anger over
American policy towards Kosovo. Experts tell us that
widespread support among ordinary Russians for Serbia's cause
does not yet exist in Russia, but warned that a UDI could
lead to protests. Zatulin and Memorial capture the broad
political support for Putin's insistence on a negotiated
solution. End Summary.

Lavrov Redraws Red-Line
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2. (SBU) At a December 5 press conference, FM Lavrov spoke
highly of Serbia's "flexibility" throughout the Troika
process, and blamed "Western partners" and their uncritical
support for Kosovo's "inevitable" independence for the
process's failure. While the Troika worked for a solution,
he said, these partners were publicly discussing a
"predetermined, contradictory" way forward. He emphasized
the GOR will base its decisions on established international
law and thatKosovo's final status could only be legitimate
through the UNSC.

Memorial Chimes In
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3. (SBU) On November 28, the human rights NGO Memorial,
which is usually critical of the GOR, issued a statement
concurring with the need for more negotiations and a longer
timeframe, in order to resolve Kosovo's final status. Noting
its experience in watching frozen conflicts flash back to
life, Memorial expressed serious concern that a unilateral
declaration of independence (UDI) for Kosovo would lead to
new bloodshed. It noted that arguments over Kosovo's unique
status were "absolutely unpersuasive" and a UDI would be
considered a major precedent, renewing the hopes of armed
opposition in other separatist conflicts and turning frozen
conflicts into hot wars. Memorial's statement said that a
long, step-by-step dialogue, searching for mutual compromise
could eventually bring peaceful coexistence to opposing
groups in tense, ethnically mixed areas.

Duma Deputy Warns of Precedent
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4. (C) In a December 6 meeting, newly re-elected Duma
International Relations Committee Deputy Konstantin Zatulin
warned that Russia's respect for Georgian territorial
integrity was negotiable in the event of a Kosovo UDI.
However, despite an impassioned treatise on Abkhazia's
legitimate claims to independence, Zatulin dismissed press
reports of Gryzlov's promise to consider Abkhaz and South
Ossetian requests for recognition as "distorted." The
question had been planted by a Georgian journalist, Zatulin
maintained, and Gryzlov's generic response had been twisted
into something more threatening. While Zatulin said he
supported Russian recognition, he stressed that there were no
Duma plans to undertake a legislative initiative.
Nonetheless, he warned that U.S. support for a UDI and for
Saakashvili had alienated the GOR and the Russian public.

Experts Divided on Popular Response
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5. (C) Dr. Aleksandr Nikitin, Director of the Center for
Euro-Atlantic Security, noted that to date there were no
popular movements among the Russian people on behalf of
Kosovo and no rallies around the cause of "Slavic
Brotherhood." For the Russian leadership, however, Kosovo
played into their need to show the public that they were
respected by and included in the international
decision-making process. Dr. Pavel Kandel of the Institute
of Europe partially agreed, adding that while ordinary
Russians did not yet have a personal interest in Kosovo's
final status, if the solution caused violence or clashes
against ethnic Serbs, the publicity of these events in Russia
could quickly energize large portions of the Russian
population.

Comment

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5. (C) Memorial, which does not hesitate to criticize the
Russian government, took an unusually supportive position of
the GOR's policy, reflecting the broad social and political
consensus in support of Putin's insistence on a negotiated
settlement in Kosovo. While Zatulin hails from the
nationalist wing of United Russia, he is a mainstream
politician, an advisor for Moscow Mayor Luzhkov on Abkhazia,
and a reminder of the forces at play who would urge a rash
Russian reaction to Kosovo's independence.
BURNS