RUSSIAN GOALS FOR NATO-RUSSIA MINISTERIAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 005735 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/04/2017 TAGS: PREL NATO MARR RS SUBJECT: RUSSIAN GOALS FOR NATO-RUSSIA MINISTERIAL REF: MOSCOW 5505 Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns. Reason 1.4 (b) (d). ¶1. (C) Summary. Russia will use the December 7 NATO-Russia Council (NRC) Ministerial as an opportunity to reiterate its views on suspension of the CFE Treaty, opposition to U.S. plans to deploy a missile defense (MD) system in Poland and the Czech Republic, opposition to a Kosovo Unilateral Declaration of Independence (UDI),and Russian concerns about NATO enlargment to Georgia and Ukraine. FM Lavrov will express satisfaction at the practical cooperation and political dialogue in the NRC, and highlight cooperation on Afghanistan and counterterrorism, particularly Russia's training of Afghan police at the Moscow Domodedovo Center. On CFE, Russia's suspension of its participation in the Treaty will take effect December 12, although the MFA stresses that Russia does not see this as the end of efforts to resolve outstanding issues. On missile defense, the MFA stresses that if the U.S. and NATO merge the U.S. MD plans with NATO's TMD plans and Russia is excluded, it will have a negative effect on NATO-Russia cooperation. (CFE and MD analyses septel). On Kosovo, Russia has not changed its position regarding response to a UDI (Reftel). End summary. Russia Satisfied with NATO-Russia Council Cooperation -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) MFA Counselor for NATO issues Grigoriy Sumkin told us December 5 that FM Lavrov would express satisfaction with the work of the NRC, highlighting practical cooperation projects such as the counternarcotics trafficking (CN) pilot project on Afghanistan and Operation Active Endeavor, and political dialogue, such as the discussions on the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Praise for Cooperation on Afghanistan, Counterterrorism -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Sumkin said Lavrov would express Russia's interest in providing assistance to the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan and note Russia's interest in increasing NATO links with the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) to facilitate transit of assistance to Afghanistan (septel). There would be a photo presentation on Russia's Domodedovo Center training for Afghan CN forces. Sumkin told us Russia would like to see the CN project extended beyond its 2009 end date. ¶4. (C) Sumkin added that Russia was very satisfied with the Cooperative Airspace Initiative and hoped that the Baltic States would soon join the project. He said Lavrov would praise NRC counterterrorism cooperation, particularly in Operation Active Endeavor. Sumkin said Russia would likely send another ship to next year's Operation, but the decision had not yet been made. He added that Russia saw potential for greater counterterrorism cooperation in the framework of the NRC, particularly in the area of infrastructure, including energy flow infrastructure, security. He said Russia would like to "breathe more life" into the Threat Assessment Working Group and work on standardized procedures for potential emergency situations along the NATO-Russia border. But, CFE, MD, Kosovo Still Contentious -------------- ¶5. (C) Sumkin said Lavrov's remarks on CFE and Missile Defense would coincide with those he made at the OSCE Ministerial in Madrid November 30. On CFE, he stressed that while all practical application of the Treaty (notification, inspections, etc.) would cease on December 12, the GOR was still interested in continuing discussions with the U.S. On MD, Sumkin said CHOD Baluyevskiy's announcement of Russia's willingness to participate in NATO's TMD exercises at the end of January had been a very difficult decision for the GOR, and showed Russia's willingness to compromise. ¶6. (C) On Kosovo, Sumkin said Lavrov would reiterate Russia's opposition to a UDI, and, reiterating that December 10 was not the "end of history," would stress the need for the troika to continue working to reach a solution acceptable to both sides. Russia Opposed to NATO Enlargement to Ukraine, Georgia -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) Sumkin stressed that NATO enlargement to Ukraine and Georgia threatened Russian and the entire region's security, and could also negatively impact Russia's willingness to cooperate in the NRC. Recent events in Georgia and divisions in Ukraine emphasized the fragile nature of stability in those countries, and added to Russia's concerns regarding regional stability. The View from the NATO Information Office -------------- ¶8. (C) Isabelle Francois (protect),head of Moscow's NATO Information Office, agreed that the GOR is very satisfied with the NATO-Russia Workplan and cooperation in the NRC, especially on Afghanistan and CT issues. However, she stressed that CFE, Kosovo, and especially MD, would be the litmus test for NATO-Russia relations. Russia was truly interested in developing a cooperative security environment, with missile defense at its core, she believed, but Russia would prefer to do so multilaterally, and Russia would need to be seen as a "true partner." She believed the GOR harsh rhetoric on CFE and MD was not just internal politics in an election season, but was tapping into a deep level of frustration and anti-Western feeling. U.S. proposals on CFE and MD had positively changed the dynamic but were too little, too late to change Russia's course. She believed Russia would continue the tough rhetoric while keeping the door open to further negotiations on these difficult issues. BURNS