RUSSIA - KPRF THREATENS TO PROTEST ELECTION FRAUD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 005582

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR RS
SUBJECT: RUSSIA - KPRF THREATENS TO PROTEST ELECTION FRAUD

REF: A. MOSCOW 04347


B. MOSCOW 04966

Classified By: Pol M/C Alice Wells. Reason: 1.4 (d).


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. The Communists are taking the offensive to
protect their interests in Sunday's Duma election,
establishing their own parallel monitoring program and
threatening "mass action" if the administration falsifies the
results. Party leaders announced on November 28 that the
party will mobilize up to 300,000 poll monitors on December

2. If they find widespread tampering, the leadership is
prepared to send up to one million supporters to protest.
Some analysts see KPRF's announcement as a last
electioneering push to further attract the "protest" vote.
Others expect a wave of protests and scandal, particularly
related to government use of "administrative resources" at
the federal and regional level, and see the Communists'
threat as the start of that process, or at least a warning to
the government to avoid the worst excesses. END SUMMARY.

Feeling Their Oats
--------------


2. (SBU) The KPRF leadership has high expectations for the
elections to the Duma on December 2, with party head Gennadiy
Zyuganov predicting that his party will be the only one to
share power with United Russia. Polling from mid-November
shows the party enjoying the support of 10-14% of those who
intend to vote, but Zyuganov's deputy, Ivan Melnikov, said in
a November 28 press conference that "their" surveys show an
even larger base of support than that portrayed by the
"Kremlin sociologists." Those expectations are likely based
on calculations that the KPRF will be the beneficiary of a
large "protest" vote against United Russia. (There may be
merit to this conviction; editorials in Russian papers are
mooting the question as to whether "liberals" should vote for
the communists as an opposition party or risk "wasting" their
vote on Yabloko or Union of Right Forces, which have little
chance of passing the 7 percent threshold to enter the Duma.)


3. (SBU) Confidence may be contributing to a more assertive
stance vis-a-vis Putin, with Zyuganov, Melnikov and others
directly criticizing the President. A turning point in the
KPRF approach may have been Putin's November 21 speech to the
faithful at Luzhniki, in which he associated the party with
the failures of the 1990s. Melnikov responded to that speech
by condemning the President's hubris, rejecting the idea that
elections are to serve as a referendum on one man. He
further criticized Putin for "throwing himself daily on the
altar of propaganda" rather than looking after the interests
of the country and promoting a productive election process.
The KPRF newspaper, Sovetskaya Rossiya, further ridiculed
Putin, suggesting that his presentation at Luzhniki was
preparation for a career as a star in a variety show, able to
"light up the stage."


4. (SBU) The Communists have also been vocal in their
criticism of the way in which the administration has managed
the campaign. Although the KPRF has not been the focal point
of government criticism, they have complained of unfair
practices, the seizure of campaign materials, and other
"administrative" measures. At the press conference, Zyuganov
expressed particular concern about the explosion of "absentee
ballots" that regional administrators are issuing to voters,
as a tool to control the votes of government workers,
students, and others. (Less significant, he also quibbled
about having Putin's picture hanging in schools that serve as
polling stations.)

On Guard against Fraud
--------------


5. (SBU) The KPRF has warned regional and federal authorities
that it will hold them accountable for conducting a fair
election on December 2. To that end, Melnikov stated that
the party has formed a special "operational group" composed
of former officials in the prosecutor's office, the courts,
the "KGB," and Interior Ministry to prepare legal materials
against any violations of election laws. Moreover, the party
plans to follow past practices by sending more than 300,000
election observers to polling places across the country,
where they are to monitor the voting process (bringing
cameras to document any problems) and to conduct exit polls.


6. (SBU) Statements made at the November 28 press conference
suggest that the party plans to work within the system to
deal with violations -- taking their criticisms to the
courts. But Melnikov underscored the party's plans for
public meetings and "pickets" in the days following the
election to protest expected fraudulent practice. He further
noted that the party was ready to mobilize more than a

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million supporters "if circumstance require it" to protest
the election results.


7. (C) Russian political observers have largely dismissed the
KPRF's strong anti-fraud position as electioneering, noting
that the methods that the administration is using to shape
the vote are unlikely to be detected by vote monitors on
Sunday. Pro-Putin Vitaliy Ivanov of the Center for Current
Political Affairs told EMBASSY that the administration has
"nothing to fear" from the KPRF's threats, but admitted that
it must take them into account. Ivanov linked Zyuganov's
determination to expose any falsification in this election to
his experience in 1996 -- an election that the KPRF sees as
"stolen" from them by the Yeltsin team. Ultimately, Ivanov
expects Zyuganov, the consummate "system" man, to come to
some compromise with the administration.


8. (C) Alexander Kynev of the more liberal Fund for
Development of Information Policies told EMBASSY that he
expects a range of scandal and criticism of the regime for
its handling of the election. In that context, the KPRF
activities are likely to fit within a larger framework of
protest and legal actions against the use of administrative
resources and vote rigging.

Comment
--------------


9. (SBU) It is difficult to see the KPRF, which has long
fulminated against the "Orange Revolution" bogeyman, as
leading a grassroots protest movement against the
administration, even in the face of widespread election
fraud. As Vitaliy Ivanov notes, the KPRF has much more to
expect from cooperation with United Russia in the next Duma
than from any legal or social campaign. However, if the KPRF
does make a political spectacle over the conduct of the
elections, their actions could raise questions about the
legitimacy of the process and create some difficult for the
Kremlin's agenda of establishing a clear mandate for Putin.
BURNS