RUSSIA - KPRF THREATENS TO PROTEST ELECTION FRAUD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 005582 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/2017 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR RS SUBJECT: RUSSIA - KPRF THREATENS TO PROTEST ELECTION FRAUD REF: A. MOSCOW 04347 ¶B. MOSCOW 04966 Classified By: Pol M/C Alice Wells. Reason: 1.4 (d). ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. The Communists are taking the offensive to protect their interests in Sunday's Duma election, establishing their own parallel monitoring program and threatening "mass action" if the administration falsifies the results. Party leaders announced on November 28 that the party will mobilize up to 300,000 poll monitors on December ¶2. If they find widespread tampering, the leadership is prepared to send up to one million supporters to protest. Some analysts see KPRF's announcement as a last electioneering push to further attract the "protest" vote. Others expect a wave of protests and scandal, particularly related to government use of "administrative resources" at the federal and regional level, and see the Communists' threat as the start of that process, or at least a warning to the government to avoid the worst excesses. END SUMMARY. Feeling Their Oats -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The KPRF leadership has high expectations for the elections to the Duma on December 2, with party head Gennadiy Zyuganov predicting that his party will be the only one to share power with United Russia. Polling from mid-November shows the party enjoying the support of 10-14% of those who intend to vote, but Zyuganov's deputy, Ivan Melnikov, said in a November 28 press conference that "their" surveys show an even larger base of support than that portrayed by the "Kremlin sociologists." Those expectations are likely based on calculations that the KPRF will be the beneficiary of a large "protest" vote against United Russia. (There may be merit to this conviction; editorials in Russian papers are mooting the question as to whether "liberals" should vote for the communists as an opposition party or risk "wasting" their vote on Yabloko or Union of Right Forces, which have little chance of passing the 7 percent threshold to enter the Duma.) ¶3. (SBU) Confidence may be contributing to a more assertive stance vis-a-vis Putin, with Zyuganov, Melnikov and others directly criticizing the President. A turning point in the KPRF approach may have been Putin's November 21 speech to the faithful at Luzhniki, in which he associated the party with the failures of the 1990s. Melnikov responded to that speech by condemning the President's hubris, rejecting the idea that elections are to serve as a referendum on one man. He further criticized Putin for "throwing himself daily on the altar of propaganda" rather than looking after the interests of the country and promoting a productive election process. The KPRF newspaper, Sovetskaya Rossiya, further ridiculed Putin, suggesting that his presentation at Luzhniki was preparation for a career as a star in a variety show, able to "light up the stage." ¶4. (SBU) The Communists have also been vocal in their criticism of the way in which the administration has managed the campaign. Although the KPRF has not been the focal point of government criticism, they have complained of unfair practices, the seizure of campaign materials, and other "administrative" measures. At the press conference, Zyuganov expressed particular concern about the explosion of "absentee ballots" that regional administrators are issuing to voters, as a tool to control the votes of government workers, students, and others. (Less significant, he also quibbled about having Putin's picture hanging in schools that serve as polling stations.) On Guard against Fraud -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The KPRF has warned regional and federal authorities that it will hold them accountable for conducting a fair election on December 2. To that end, Melnikov stated that the party has formed a special "operational group" composed of former officials in the prosecutor's office, the courts, the "KGB," and Interior Ministry to prepare legal materials against any violations of election laws. Moreover, the party plans to follow past practices by sending more than 300,000 election observers to polling places across the country, where they are to monitor the voting process (bringing cameras to document any problems) and to conduct exit polls. ¶6. (SBU) Statements made at the November 28 press conference suggest that the party plans to work within the system to deal with violations -- taking their criticisms to the courts. But Melnikov underscored the party's plans for public meetings and "pickets" in the days following the election to protest expected fraudulent practice. He further noted that the party was ready to mobilize more than a MOSCOW 00005582 002 OF 002 million supporters "if circumstance require it" to protest the election results. ¶7. (C) Russian political observers have largely dismissed the KPRF's strong anti-fraud position as electioneering, noting that the methods that the administration is using to shape the vote are unlikely to be detected by vote monitors on Sunday. Pro-Putin Vitaliy Ivanov of the Center for Current Political Affairs told Embassy that the administration has "nothing to fear" from the KPRF's threats, but admitted that it must take them into account. Ivanov linked Zyuganov's determination to expose any falsification in this election to his experience in 1996 -- an election that the KPRF sees as "stolen" from them by the Yeltsin team. Ultimately, Ivanov expects Zyuganov, the consummate "system" man, to come to some compromise with the administration. ¶8. (C) Alexander Kynev of the more liberal Fund for Development of Information Policies told Embassy that he expects a range of scandal and criticism of the regime for its handling of the election. In that context, the KPRF activities are likely to fit within a larger framework of protest and legal actions against the use of administrative resources and vote rigging. Comment -------------- ¶9. (SBU) It is difficult to see the KPRF, which has long fulminated against the "Orange Revolution" bogeyman, as leading a grassroots protest movement against the administration, even in the face of widespread election fraud. As Vitaliy Ivanov notes, the KPRF has much more to expect from cooperation with United Russia in the next Duma than from any legal or social campaign. However, if the KPRF does make a political spectacle over the conduct of the elections, their actions could raise questions about the legitimacy of the process and create some difficult for the Kremlin's agenda of establishing a clear mandate for Putin. BURNS