MFA ON LEBANON AND THE MIDDLE EAST PEACE PROCESS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 005523 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/26/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL KWBG KPAL IS LE RS SUBJECT: MFA ON LEBANON AND THE MIDDLE EAST PEACE PROCESS REF: MOSCOW 5457 Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns for reasons 1.4 (b/d). ¶1. (C) Summary: According to the MFA, Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov told Lebanese parliamentary majority leader Saad Hariri during their November 20 meeting that the GOR would not support a specific candidate for the Lebanese presidency and hoped the country's political factions could agree upon a "consensus candidate." The MFA said the GOR sought to convince Syria to play a constructive role in Lebanon and to attend Annapolis, but Russian influence had limits. A sign from the U.S. that it would address the Israeli-Syrian dispute over the Golan Heights could lead Syria to be more helpful. The GOR did not expect a "breakthrough" at the Annapolis Conference, but thought that progress on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would strengthen PA President Abbas and moderates in Hamas. The GOR hoped to "maximize" the results at Annapolis by holding a meeting of Middle East experts in Moscow that would address a variety of regional issues. End summary. GOR Hopes for a "Consensus Candidate" in Lebanon -------------- --- ¶2. (C) MFA Deputy Director for the Middle East and North Africa Oleg Ozerov told us that during their November 20 meeting in Moscow, Putin and Lavrov offered Lebanese parliamentary majority leader Hariri their support for a resolution to Lebanon's current political turmoil but stressed that the GOR hoped to see the Lebanese factions agree upon a "consensus candidate" for President. The GOR would not support a specific candidate, nor back a particular faction in the Lebanese Parliament. Lavrov reiterated, both publicly and privately, the position that Lebanese politics should be free of foreign interference. ¶3. (C) Ozerov told us that Hariri said he was not sure a consensus candidate could be found and feared that a "political vacuum" would ensue after the term of President Lahoud ended November 23. Ozerov believed, however, that the Lebanese would not commit "political suicide" and the process of finding an acceptable candidate would continue as parliamentarians had not exhausted all possibilities. The Russian Ambassador in Lebanon, along with other international representatives, continued to meet with the various factions to convince them to overcome their mistrust of one another. Ozerov said the GOR wanted to avoid the "disintegration" of Lebanon. Should Lebanon fail to get its political house in order, it was in danger of becoming a factionalized non-state like Palestine. U.S. Should Address Syrian Concerns -------------- ¶4. (C) Ozerov echoed comments by DFM Saltanov to the Ambassador that the GOR worked "very hard" to convince Syria to be more helpful in Lebanon and the Middle East Peace Process (MEPP),including conveying Putin's strong pitch for Syrian attendance at Annapolis, but that Russian influence had limits. Ozerov reiterated Saltanov's view that the U.S. should declare its intention at Annapolis to work toward a settlement on the Golan Heights, which would motivate Assad to play a more constructive role in the region. A demonstration of U.S. seriousness to engage with Syria would also have a salutary effect on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by strengthening the position of Palestinian moderates against their more radical compatriots. ¶5. (C) Ozerov explained that the Russia, unlike the U.S., did not see Hamas as "homogeneous" but recognized moderate forces with which one could work. Ozerov complained that the current split between Fatah and Hamas and the continued isolation of Gaza only undermined the "constructive people" in Hamas. He believed that Syrian participation in Annapolis and some level of success at the conference for the Palestinians could lead to a "new political situation" that would strengthen the positions of PA President Abbas as well as the Hamas moderates. GOR Wants to Continue Annapolis Momentum -------------- ¶6. (C) Ozerov said Russia did not expect a "breakthrough" at Annapolis, but viewed the conference as a starting point from which to work toward final settlement on "all tracks" in the region, including Israeli disputes with Lebanon and Syria. In order to help "push this process forward," the GOR was considering proposing a follow-up meeting in Moscow (reftel). The Russians already had a "picture" of how the meeting would be organized, although much would depend upon the outcome at Annapolis. Ozerov said the GOR already discussed MOSCOW 00005523 002 OF 002 the possibility of bringing together Israeli and Syrian representatives in Moscow to discuss the Golan Heights. Both the Israeli and Syrian Ambassadors in Moscow have said publicly that their governments would consider a meeting on the issue in Moscow. ¶7. (C) Ozerov noted that Russia, U.S., EU, and Arab countries each had reasons for involvement in the MEPP. Regardless of the varying motivations and approaches, the Annapolis Conference provided an "intersection" of interests and unique opportunity for progress. BURNS