MOD SERDYUKOV VISITS CENTRAL ASIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 005518

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2017
TAGS: MARR MCAP PREL SENV
SUBJECT: MOD SERDYUKOV VISITS CENTRAL ASIA


Classified By: Political M/C Alice G. Wells. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Russian Minister of Defense Anatoly
Serdyukov's visits to Uzbekistan and Armenia October 29-30
were part of Russian efforts to strengthen ties with CIS
member states. (Note: Serdyukov also made an unofficial
trip to Kyrgyzstan. End Note.) Serdyukov and his Uzbek
counterpart signed a plan for military cooperation in 2008,
as well as a plan to allow spent stages of Russian rockets to
fall on Uzbek territory. In Armenia, Serdyukov inspected
arms shipments and discussed the transfer of Russian soldiers
from Georgia to Armenia. End Summary.

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Russia Plays the Military Card In Tashkent...
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2. (C) Discussing Minister Serdyukov's October 29-30 travel,
Vladimir Makarov of the MFA Third CIS Department told us
November 16 that Russia's major focus in its military
relations with Uzbekistan was to reestablish the military air
base in Novayi. Stronger military cooperation with
Uzbekistan would also mean greater influence in the country,
he stated. After the incident in Andijan in 2005, Makarov
said, the Karimov regime had sought closer military
cooperation with Russia to preserve its hold on power.


3. (C) Dmitriy Litovkin, a political analyst for Izvestia who
accompanied Serdyukov, also characterized the trip as part of
Russia's general policy to strengthen its relationship with
CIS states. Uzbekistan, he posited, which previously had not
shown much interest in being an active CIS member, had
stepped up its engagement with other CIS members. He agreed
with Makarov that since 2005, Uzbekistan has sought greater
cooperation with Russia, and has more actively participated
in CIS meetings and has signed CIS statements of cooperation
with other member states. "Russia has no problem tolerating
incidents such as Andijan," Litovkin added.


4. (C) Litovkin confirmed reports that Serdyukov and Uzbek
Defense Minister Ruslan Mirzayev signed bilateral military
plan for 2008, but was unable to characterize the scope of
the cooperation. Media reports also note that Serdyukov and
Mirzayev reached an agreement to allow spent stages of the
RS-20 ICBM that will take the Teos satellite into orbit in
December to fall on the sparsely-populated Yustyurt plateau
in northern Uzbekistan. Kazakhstan, which hosts the Baikonur
space center, has considered banning rocket launches because
of potential environmental hazards caused by the highly toxic
fuel, heptyl, used by the RS-20.

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...And Reaffirms Ties to Armenia
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5. (C) While MFA officials declined to provide a read-out on
Serdyukov's Yerevan leg, Litovkin -- who has criticized U.S.
policies in the past -- argued that Russia hoped to stop
Armenia's drift toward the West and to show Armenians that
they have closer ties with Russia than with the United
States. That the timing of Serdyukov's trip coincided with
the transfer of the last 150 Russian soldiers from Georgia
(notwithstanding the 500 Russian "peacekeepers" in South
Ossetia and 1,500 "peacekeepers" in Abkhazia) to Armenia was
no accident, he said. Serdyukov's talks on this, as well as
his inspection of recent arms shipments to Armenia, served as
a public reminder of the military cooperation between the two
countries. Many Armenians, Litovkin pointed out, still speak
Russian, and support hosting Russian military bases. The
more senior Russian officials who visit Armenia, the more
they are reminded of this, he argued.
BURNS