MOD SERDYUKOV VISITS CENTRAL ASIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 005518 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2017 TAGS: MARR MCAP PREL SENV SUBJECT: MOD SERDYUKOV VISITS CENTRAL ASIA Classified By: Political M/C Alice G. Wells. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Russian Minister of Defense Anatoly Serdyukov's visits to Uzbekistan and Armenia October 29-30 were part of Russian efforts to strengthen ties with CIS member states. (Note: Serdyukov also made an unofficial trip to Kyrgyzstan. End Note.) Serdyukov and his Uzbek counterpart signed a plan for military cooperation in 2008, as well as a plan to allow spent stages of Russian rockets to fall on Uzbek territory. In Armenia, Serdyukov inspected arms shipments and discussed the transfer of Russian soldiers from Georgia to Armenia. End Summary. -------------- Russia Plays the Military Card In Tashkent... -------------- ¶2. (C) Discussing Minister Serdyukov's October 29-30 travel, Vladimir Makarov of the MFA Third CIS Department told us November 16 that Russia's major focus in its military relations with Uzbekistan was to reestablish the military air base in Novayi. Stronger military cooperation with Uzbekistan would also mean greater influence in the country, he stated. After the incident in Andijan in 2005, Makarov said, the Karimov regime had sought closer military cooperation with Russia to preserve its hold on power. ¶3. (C) Dmitriy Litovkin, a political analyst for Izvestia who accompanied Serdyukov, also characterized the trip as part of Russia's general policy to strengthen its relationship with CIS states. Uzbekistan, he posited, which previously had not shown much interest in being an active CIS member, had stepped up its engagement with other CIS members. He agreed with Makarov that since 2005, Uzbekistan has sought greater cooperation with Russia, and has more actively participated in CIS meetings and has signed CIS statements of cooperation with other member states. "Russia has no problem tolerating incidents such as Andijan," Litovkin added. ¶4. (C) Litovkin confirmed reports that Serdyukov and Uzbek Defense Minister Ruslan Mirzayev signed bilateral military plan for 2008, but was unable to characterize the scope of the cooperation. Media reports also note that Serdyukov and Mirzayev reached an agreement to allow spent stages of the RS-20 ICBM that will take the Teos satellite into orbit in December to fall on the sparsely-populated Yustyurt plateau in northern Uzbekistan. Kazakhstan, which hosts the Baikonur space center, has considered banning rocket launches because of potential environmental hazards caused by the highly toxic fuel, heptyl, used by the RS-20. -------------- ...And Reaffirms Ties to Armenia -------------- ¶5. (C) While MFA officials declined to provide a read-out on Serdyukov's Yerevan leg, Litovkin -- who has criticized U.S. policies in the past -- argued that Russia hoped to stop Armenia's drift toward the West and to show Armenians that they have closer ties with Russia than with the United States. That the timing of Serdyukov's trip coincided with the transfer of the last 150 Russian soldiers from Georgia (notwithstanding the 500 Russian "peacekeepers" in South Ossetia and 1,500 "peacekeepers" in Abkhazia) to Armenia was no accident, he said. Serdyukov's talks on this, as well as his inspection of recent arms shipments to Armenia, served as a public reminder of the military cooperation between the two countries. Many Armenians, Litovkin pointed out, still speak Russian, and support hosting Russian military bases. The more senior Russian officials who visit Armenia, the more they are reminded of this, he argued. BURNS