STATE DUMA VOTES UNANIMOUSLY TO SUSPEND CFE TREATY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 005339 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2017 TAGS: MARR MCAP PGOV PREL SUBJECT: STATE DUMA VOTES UNANIMOUSLY TO SUSPEND CFE TREATY Classified By: Acting DCM Alice G. Wells. Reasons 1.4 (c) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: On November 7 the State Duma unanimously approved a draft law to suspend participation in the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty. The law will come into effect on December 12, pending approval by the Federation Council and President Putin's signature. Objections to the CFE Treaty raised in the Duma were familiar ones: opposition to flank regimes, complaints that no NATO countries have ratified the CFE Treaty, and the failure of NATO members to move towards Adapted CFE (A/CFE) ratification. Following the draft law's passage, military officials indicated that Russia may alter its force posture, should Russia suspend participation in the CFE Treaty. End Summary. -------------- The Vote And Its Implications -------------- ¶2. (U) By a vote of 418-0, the Russian State Duma approved on November 7 a draft law to suspend participation in the CFE Treaty. Rather than conduct three readings as is standard practice, the draft law was passed after the first review. The law will come into effect on December 12, if it is approved by the Federation Council (as seems likely) and signed by President Putin. The Federation Council has not yet scheduled a vote on the CFE Treaty. Passage of the draft law would allow, but not require, President Putin to suspend Russian participation of the CFE Treaty. -------------- The Duma Debates -------------- ¶3. (U) During the November 7 debates, Russian Armed Forces Chief of Staff Yuriy Baluyevskiy argued that "Russia cannot be blamed for the dismantling of the CFE treaty, if such a thing happens." He stressed that no NATO country has ratified the treaty, and whereas the Soviet Union withdrew its forces from Eastern Europe, NATO had expanded into the region. While admitting that the CFE Treaty was signed to promote peace and stability in Europe, he argued that the treaty's flank limitations hurt Russia by preventing it from stationing troops in certain areas of the Russian Federation. He also lamented that NATO had conducted 46 "intrusive" inspections of Russian forces. ¶4. (U) Statements made by Duma members varied. Independent Deputy Viktor Alksnis argued that if NATO countries ratified the A/CFE Treaty, then Russia should as well. Others, such as nationalist deputy Sergey Baburin, questioned the need for the CFE Treaty at all, arguing that Russia needs a new treaty "for the twenty-first century." LDPR leader Zhirinovskiy put on his trademark political performance, arguing that Russia had been "childishly, idiotically stupid" by ratifying a treaty shunned by others. (As he left the chamber, Zhirinovskiy was trailed by half the press corps, and continued his performance in front of TV cameras positioned in the hallway.) -------------- Russia To Change Its Force Posture? -------------- ¶5. (C) In conversations after the vote, First Deputy Defense Minister Colonel General Aleksandr Kolmakov said Russia might increase its military presence in western Russia if GOR suspends participation in the CFE Treaty, but said no decision had been made. Vladimir Yevseev, Senior Associate of the Institute for World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO),was among several analysts who asserted that Russia would be hard-pressed to transfer troops without building more bases or expanding existing ones. This would be a highly provocative action, and not one Russia is likely to take. He went on to say that many Russians view China, and not NATO, as Russia's main enemy. Thus, he doubted that suspension of CFE would significantly change Russia's force posture on the flank. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) The Duma's decision was not a surprise and puts in motion the legislative machinery required to effect Russia's threat to suspend participation in the treaty on December 12. MOSCOW 00005339 002 OF 002 Whether Russia takes that step will be decided by the Kremlin, and not the Duma. BURNS