BOSNIA: MOSCOW EVALUATES THE SITUATION DIFFERENTLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 005224 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/29/2017 TAGS: PREL BK RU SUBJECT: BOSNIA: MOSCOW EVALUATES THE SITUATION DIFFERENTLY REF: SECSTATE 149183 Classified By: Minister-Counselor for Political Affairs Alice G. Wells ¶1. (C) We delivered reftel demarche on October 29 meeting to MFA Third European Department Counselor Ivan Gorbunov, who told us that the U.S. and GOR evaluated the situation differently in Bosnia, but had the same overall goal -- peace and stability for the region (septel reports on the Ambassador's discussion with Deputy Foreign Minister Titov). Gorbunov said the GOR was disappointed that when High Representative Lajcak was in Russia on October 5, he "did not even hint" to the GOR about the measures, which the GOR felt should have been presented to and agreed upon by the Steering Board first. ¶2. (C) Gorbunov told us the GOR was worried about European partners' "reservation" about replacing the Office of the High Representative with full-scale EU representation. The GOR believed that Bosnia should be integrated into the European community, and felt the best way for that to happen was the creation of an European Union Special Representative. He said that the GOR was concerned about perceived loss of EU enthusiasm, and worried that without the EU "carrot" dangling visibly nearby, competing factions would have less reason to cooperate. Conversely, he said the GOR believed that a strong statement from Brussels that the Bosnians themselves must find compromise would be more effective than the OHR imposing reforms on disgruntled parties. ¶3. (C) Overall, Gorbunov said the GOR did not believe that the Republika Srpska leadership would throw away the legal protection it obtained with the Dayton Accords, but was legitimately concerned that the international community was disrupting the delicate system that governs Bosnia. The GOR believed that the failure of police reform showed that no decisions should be imposed, and opposed removing Dodik or Silajdzic from power in any way. Gorbunov told us the GOR believes there was no use engaging in state-building" if the international community was going "to behave in this way." Burns