RUSSIA'S SILENT CONCERN OVER CHINESE ASAT TEST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 000522 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2017 TAGS: PARM MCAP PREL RS CH SUBJECT: RUSSIA'S SILENT CONCERN OVER CHINESE ASAT TEST REF: A. STATE 7445 ¶B. MOSCOW 402 Classified By: Minister-Counselor for Political Affairs Alice G. Wells. Reasons 1.4 (B/D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Moscow's relatively muted reaction to Beijing's test of an anti-satellite missile last month belies its deep concern about a pending arms race in space. Caught offguard by Beijing's action and unprepared to meet the challenge, Russian officials have publicly downplayed the significance of the test and, in some cases, implicitly blamed US policy for initiating the drive to militarize space. Russia will be pressed to respond in kind, but it remains unclear whether the country currently has the technological prowess to keep pace with the US. In the short- to medium-term, Moscow will likely continue to call for a formal ban on weaponization of space. END SUMMARY. . -------------- NO OUTWARD OFFICIAL CONCERN ... -------------- ¶2. (C) Moscow's reaction to Beijing's January 11 test of an anti-satellite missile (ASAT) has been relatively muted, partly because it occurred more or less at the same time as the media trumpeted the proposed deployment of US missile defense components in Poland and the Czech Republic (reftels),which Russian officials regard with greater concern. Defense Minister Sergey Ivanov initially dismissed reports of the successful destruction of a satellite by a Chinese missile but later said simply that Russia opposed deployment of military strike systems in space. President Vladimir Putin, echoing the views of many in the country's defense establishment, implied that US space policy extending back to the 1980s sparked the Chinese drive to counter US capabilities, which could lead to a new arms race. The US, said Putin, had "let the genie out of the bottle." ¶3. (C) At a January 29 session of the US-Russia Strategic Security Dialogue, Deputy FM Sergey Kislyak also tried to downplay the test, telling U/S for Arms Control and International Security Joseph that Moscow viewed the Chinese test as a signal of Beijing's concern about space weapons, which did not necessarily suggest an intent to develop such weapons. Kislyak proposed consideration of a ban on weaponization of space, as well as other confidence building measures, to mitigate the potential for an arms race. ¶4. (C) Oleg Burmistrov, Chief of the Political-Military Section in the Foreign Ministry's North America Department, echoed Kislyak's views and suggested to us that the Chinese test was not militarily significant or a threat to Russian interests. Burmistrov encouraged the US strongly to renounce militarization of space in order to head off a possible new arms race. . -------------- ... BUT DEEP DOWN WE'RE WORRIED -------------- ¶5. (C) Independent defense analyst Pavel Felgengauer told us that Moscow was worried about the implications of the Chinese test. Russia did not currently have the technological capability to match the US in space, which would force Moscow to continue to press for a formal ban on weaponization in the short- to medium-term, at least until Russia had reviewed its options. Felgengauer added that Russian officials had been dismayed by China's neglect in informing them in advance of the test, as well as by the Russian defense establishment's failure to detect it immediately or to recognize its significance. ¶6. (C) Ivan Safranchuk of the World Security Institute also said Moscow was not happy about China's ASAT test. Russia had engaged in considerable diplomatic efforts to prevent an arms race in space and wanted to preserve space as weapons-free. China and Russia, as strategic partners, had previously taken the ethical high ground with their criticism of US efforts to design space-based weapons platforms and support systems. Safranchuk continued that China's ASAT test could be interpreted as an escalation of an arms race in space which, until now, Russia had deliberately refrained from joining. The Chinese test had undermined both Beijing's and Moscow's diplomatic positions. He also asserted that MOSCOW 00000522 002 OF 002 Beijing had previously denied that it was pursuing any type of ASAT program. In the wake of the January 11 test, Russian trust in China will likely suffer. ¶7. (C) Safranchuk said he expected the US to respond to the Chinese challenge, leading to a further escalation. In spite of Russian officials' attempts to downplay the significance of the test, Safranchuk thought Moscow would also be forced to respond, potentially leading to a costly arms race involving the US, China, Russia, and possibly other nations. In the meantime, Russia will not openly criticize China since the two countries remain strategic partners, but Moscow is "silently unhappy" with these latest developments. . -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) Faced with missile-related challenges on opposite sides of its borders, it remains to be seen how Russia will respond to the Chinese ASAT test. Official GOR statements suggest that Russia currently lacks the technological prowess to keep pace with the US in space, and many of its space-based reconnaissance systems are of dubious reliability as a result of deterioration during the 1990s. Until Russia determines how it will respond to this latest challenge, Moscow will likely continue to press for a formal ban on weaponization of space as an interim measure at least. BURNS