RUSSIA WILL PROVIDE MILITARY ASSISTANCE TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 004929

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/03/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL MASS AF RS
SUBJECT: RUSSIA WILL PROVIDE MILITARY ASSISTANCE TO
AFGHANISTAN

Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns for reasons 1.4 (b/d).


1. (C) Summary: Concern over Afghanistan's deteriorating
security has led Russia to propose a significant military
assistance program to support the Karzai government. The MFA
told us October 5 that a draft military aid package awaits
Putin's approval. The program will include the direct
transfer of armaments, vehicles, small arms and ammunition
valued at hundreds of millions of dollars. The MFA
reiterated Russia's support for the U.S.'s and NATO's role in
Afghanistan, cautioning not to read too much into its recent
UNSC abstention on the ISAF mandate renewal resolution; the
abstention was solely related to concerns about potential
broader application of the new language on OEF maritime
operations. End Summary.


2. (C) On October 5, Head of the MFA Afghanistan Desk Yuriy
Khokhlov previewed plans to restart a significant military
assistance program to help the Afghan Government. The draft
plan to provide hundreds of millions of dollars worth of
armaments, vehicles, small arms and ammunition, following
September 19 Interministerial Commission's approval, is
awaiting Putin's endorsement. According to Khokhlov, Russia
hopes to soon begin discussions with the Afghan Government on
establishing end use verification and control mechanisms to
ensure that the armaments are not stolen or sold to the
Taliban. Although there is understandable reluctance to send
Russian military advisors to Afghanistan, this has not been
definitively ruled out.


3. (C) Despite concerns about Karzai's weakness, Khokhlov
reiterated that Russia continues to support the Karzai
Government. Moscow's major preoccupation is that, amid the
deteriorating situation, the Taliban now control close to 40
percent of Afghanistan. Russian remains opposed to any
reprochement with the Taliban or attempt to include them in
the government, which could result in the Taliban's return to
power and use of Afghanistan as a base for destabilizing
Central Asia.


4. (C) Khokhlov volunteered that Russia continues to support
the U.S. and NATO role in Afghanistan. MFA International
Organizations Department Director Aleksandr Konuzin
separately clarified that the Russian abstention on the UNSC
resolution renewing ISAF's mandate was prompted by Ministry
of Defense concerns about new language on OEF's maritime
operations. Konuzin took our point that the language was
introduced to help the Japanese, but commented that his
Defense colleagues remained wary about implications for
potential future U.S. military operations in the Persian Gulf
and boarding of Russian vessels.


5. (C) Comment: If approved as described, the Russian
military assistance program would represent a major step
forward in Russia's support for the Afghan central
government. While the draft program obviously needs to be
tailored to Afghan needs, it already sounds better than
Russia's 2002-2005 Afghan military assistance program, which
ended before the entire $200 million worth of material could
be delivered.
Burns