RUSSIA WARNS AGAINST ISOLATING BURMESE REGIME

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 004856

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/03/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM BM RS
SUBJECT: RUSSIA WARNS AGAINST ISOLATING BURMESE REGIME

REF: A. STATE 137644


B. MOSCOW 4774

Classified By: Political M/C Alice Wells for reasons 1.4 (b/d).


1. (C) Summary: The GOR responded to U.S. calls for the
international community to increase pressure on the Burmese
regime by cautioning that further isolating the military
junta would result in a backlash that could destabilize Burma
and Southeast Asia. The MFA continued to downplay the
crisis, telling us that recent events have been "over
dramatized" and questioning the motives of demonstrators.
MFA officials reiterated that the GOR does not believe the
unrest in Burma should be addressed by the UNSC and that
Russia prefers countries work bilaterally with Burma to
encourage its political reform. End summary.

Don't Isolate Burma
--------------


2. (C) During October 2 discussions, MFA Department of ASEAN
States and Asia-Pacific Regional Affairs Deputy Director
Liudmila Vorobieva responded to U.S. concern over the
government crackdown in Burma (ref A),asserting that the
media has "over dramatized" the situation. Rejecting our
call for sanctions against the Burmese regime and for
democratic change, Vorobieva noted that the GOR is concerned
the international community will take "drastic and
counterproductive" measures to isolate the regime. Doing so
could lead the Generals to take repressive, even violent,
measures against opposition and ethnic groups. She added
that the resulting refugee crisis could destabilize Burma and
SE Asia.

Give Political Process a Chance
--------------


3. (C) Vorobieva reiterated that the UNSC is not the
appropriate forum for dealing with what is a "strictly
internal matter," and that the GOR prefers nations act
bilaterally to apply appropriate pressure on Burma to
democratize. Russia considers the Burmese Generals' plan for
political reform, the "roadmap to democracy," as the best
opportunity for achieving long-term stability in Burma.
Vorobieva noted that in September a Burmese representative
reported to the GOR on recent progress in Burma's National
Convention (ref B). She asked that the international
community "give Burma's roadmap a chance."

Questions Demonstrators' Motives
--------------


4. (C) Vorobieva continued the GOR practice of questioning
the nature of the recent demonstrations by pointing out that
what began as protests against fuel price increases was
manipulated by dissidents and "outside forces" to promote
their political agenda. She said the fact that the
demonstrations took place at the opening of UNGA was "too
coincidental," and suggested that protesters provoked clashes
with security forces. Vorobieva dismissed reports that
thousands of Buddhist monks had participated in the
demonstrations by noting the "likelihood" that many
opposition activists became monks specifically to participate
in the demonstrations.
Burns