CIS SUMMIT IN DUSHANBE: GOR EXPECTATIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 004849 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/01/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR TI RS SUBJECT: CIS SUMMIT IN DUSHANBE: GOR EXPECTATIONS Classified By: Political M/C Alice G. Wells. Reasons 1.4 (B/D) ¶1. (U) On October 2, the Kremlin announced that President Putin will visit Dushanbe October 4-7 to participate in the CIS Summit and two regional organizations' meetings -- Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) council meeting and a EurAsEC Interstate council meeting. GOR officials expected that this year's CIS Summit would unveil the roadmap of CIS future development and essential steps for its realization. The Summit also promises a declaration on migration principles which will govern the CIS space. ¶2. (C) Director MFA CIS First Department Vladimir Kudryavtsev confirmed for us October 3 that all presidents will be there although he did not exclude the possibility of last-minute drop-outs. Particular attention will be given to whether Ukraine's Yushchenko and Georgia's Saakashvili will participate and will have one-on-one meetings with President Putin, although Russian experts discount the possibility that President Yushchenko would leave Kyiv this week. ¶3. (C) According to Kudryavtsev, October 5 discussions will be focused on how to strengthen the CIS effectiveness as an organization. The reform project initiated by Kazakhstan in 2004 has triggered a 30 percent reduction of the administrative structure and continues to be one of the main themes of all CIS meetings. With the CSTO meeting following the next day, anti-narcotics efforts along the Afghan border will be one of the topics on the agenda as well. Kudryavtsev noted that the many CIS documents accumulated over the years, not legally or politically binding, led to little results and the disproportionally large CIS bureaucracy, even after the reduction, is another weakness of the organization. ¶4. (C) Comment. The CIS Summit continues to serve above all as an opportunity for regional leaders to meet one-on-one on the margins to discuss bilateral issues. We have not seen any indication that Russia is taking this year's gathering more seriously than previous meetings. Burns