"PEACE MISSION 2007": SHANGHAI COOPERATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 003996

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/13/2017
TAGS: PREL MOPS PTER RS CH
SUBJECT: "PEACE MISSION 2007": SHANGHAI COOPERATION
ORGANIZATION MILITARY EXERCISE IN CHELYABINSK

Classified By: A/POL Colin Cleary. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The August 9-17 Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (SCO) anti-terrorist exercise -- Peace Mission
2007 -- is the largest in the history of the SCO.
Approximately 6,500 troops are participating, the bulk from
Russia and China. SCO Heads of State, including Chinese
President Hu, are expected to observe the conclusion of the
exercise in Chelyabinsk August 17, following the SCO Summit
in Bishkek. Given China's economic dominance, some Russian
analysts see the GOR's emphasis on developing the SCO's
military dimension as a way for Russia to assert a leading
role in the organization. END SUMMARY.

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The Scenario
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2. (U) The scenario for the August 9-17 "Peace Mission 2007"
exercise in Chelyabinsk involves combating a terrorist
takeover of a village. Under the scenario, a reported 6,500
troops from all six SCO countries -- but primarily Russia and
China -- work together to defeat terrorists and free
hostages. (The first joint military exercise involving
Russia and China in decades, Peace Mission 2005, was held on
the Shandong Peninsula, China, in August 2005. It was a
combined air, land, and sea exercise that involved 8,000
Chinese troops and 2,000 Russian troops. The scenario also
involved liberating a territory besieged by terrorists or
separatists.)

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Counterbalance to the West
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3. (C) Director of the World Security Institute Ivan
Safranchuk told us August 7 that Russia seeks to use the
Peace Mission 2007 exercise to demonstrate to the U.S. and
NATO that, despite feelings of mutual suspicion, Russia and
China can cooperate on substantive security issues.
Cultivating ties with its Asian neighbors through the SCO
will increase Russia's stature and better enable it to
counter the U.S. and NATO diplomatically. Amherst Professor
Vitaly Kozyrev agreed. Russia, he told us, wants to use the
SCO, and this year's exercise, to demonstrate its ability to
act as a counterweight to the West.

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Tensions Within the SCO
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4. (C) Vice Director of the Institute of Asian and African
Studies of Moscow State University Andrei Karneev told us
August 9 that attempts by Russia and China to use the SCO to
counter the West could backfire. If the SCO is seen as
primarily an anti-U.S. organization, he said, some Central
Asian countries could desert. Kazakhstan, for example,
sought close ties with the U.S. to counterbalance the
influence of Russia and China in Central Asia. That is why,
Karneev said, organizers made sure that the exercise had an
anti-terrorist focus and took pains to emphasize that it was
not aimed at any particular country.


5. (C) The Head of the Institute for Political and Military
Analysis, Alexander Khramchikin, told us August 9 that Peace
Mission 2007 highlighted some of the tensions between Russia
and China. He noted that Russia sees the exercise as a way
to redefine the SCO as being a forum for military as well as
economic cooperation. With China as the economic powerhouse
of the SCO, the only way for Russia to take a leading role in
the organization is to emphasize the military component. He
pointed out that many Russian generals feel the Chinese
military is making progress toward becoming a formidable
fighting force, but still has a long way to go before it
catches up to the Russian military.


6. (C) Deputy Executive Director of the Council of Foreign
and Defense Policy Alexander Belkin told us Russia's belief
in its military superiority over China was misplaced. Many
units of the Chinese military, especially the air force and
navy, he argued, are better trained and equipped than their
Russian counterparts. He noted that China hopes to display
some of this military prowess during Peace Mission 2007.
RUSSELL