NIZHNIY NOVGOROD: GOVERNMENT STRUCTURES SENSITIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 003240

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/03/2017
TAGS: PGOV SOCI PINR RS
SUBJECT: NIZHNIY NOVGOROD: GOVERNMENT STRUCTURES SENSITIVE
TO CIVIC ACTIVISM


Classified By: Political M/C Alice G. Wells. For reason 1.4(d).


1. (SBU) Summary: The planned construction of a shopping
center on the site of an unkempt park in Nizhniy Novgorod's
industrial district and the political and civic response
illustrates the difficulties opposition politicians and civic
activists have in mounting effective protests against
government power structures that perceive all activist
attempts as political criticism. All agree that the shopping
center will likely be built, with the timing of the
construction dependent on the December Duma election.
Dissatisfaction with local government behavior and a growing
desire for a more responsive government, however, show an
electorate beginning to tire of the status quo. But, the
combination of a defensive government, an unresponsive
public, and underdeveloped organizational skills has left
civic activism in the Nizhniy Novgorod Region weak. End
summary.

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Local Government: Reclaiming or Destroying?
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2. (SBU) In 2006, the Nizhniy Novgorod Region's Investment
Council approved a USD 130 million project to build a
shopping mall in "Dubki" Park, which is located in Nizhniy
Novgorod's industrial district, where almost a third of the
city's 1.5 million residents live. The reconstruction
project was billed as a way of re-juvenating an area that had
become dilapidated and unsafe for residents, especially at
night when crime and drug dealing were more prevalent.
Construction was scheduled to start at the beginning of 2007.



3. (SBU) Dubki, which features century old oak trees, is the
district's only "green" area. The district houses
blue-collar workers, many of whom are now under- or
unemployed as Nizhniy's factories become obsolete, and is a
strong Communist Party (KPRF) base. Nonetheless, the
proposed mall is not viewed as a possible source of jobs for
the district's residents. The KPRF immediately protested the
decision, arguing that federally-mandated green space would
be further, and dramatically, decreased and that cancer rates
would increase.


4. (U) The Nizhniy Novgorod City Council (controlled by the
United Russia party) responded by re-zoning the park in June
2007 so that it would no longer be subject to the federal
requirements. In the face of continued opposition, Mayor
Vadim Bulavinov promised that no construction would begin
unless an expert study, due to take three to six months,
endorsed the project. Bulavinov also claimed in the press
that all the protest activity was being financed by
"commercial interests" in the district who feared the
competition that the mall would bring.

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Weak Opposition and Activists
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5. (C) In a June 28 meeting, KPRF Regional Duma Deputy
Vladislav Yegorov told us of his frustration that, having let
Dubki fall into disrepair, the city was now arguing that it
was unfit for public use and the best solution would be to
"reconstruct" it, even though this was not popularly
supported. He doubted that construction could be stopped,
but promised that the KPRF would not give up. A visibly
distressed Yegorov told us that he had introduced amendments
that would in future prevent such re-zoning.


6. (C) Just Russia (the second Kremlin party) representative
Svetlana Chermina stated that Just Russia was also strongly
against the construction, but conceded that since the party
had only just held its first official meeting in May and was
still registering members, it had not done anything to oppose
the decision.


7. (C) Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of Sociology
Aleksandr Prudnik assured us that since United Russia
Governor Valeriy Shantsev had already "spent" the money he
had received for greenlighting the project, the mall would be
built. Prudnik noted, however, that Shantsev intended to
deliver over 50 percent of the region's vote to United Russia
in the December Duma elections and would not want to risk a
reaction at the polls which meant, Prudnik thought, that no
construction would begin before 2008.


8. (C) Askhat Kayumov of Dront ecological group was the most
upbeat about the chances of halting the construction. Dront
is assisting in bringing legal action against the government
and while Kayumov predicted a long process, he optimistically

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pointed out that there was a brownfield site nearby.
Although not covered by the press, Kayumov told us that a
handful of protesters had set up tents in the park a couple
of weeks ago with the intent of physically blocking any
construction efforts.

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Uninterested Public
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9. (SBU) The citizens of Nizhniy are complacent. Only about
200, mostly elderly, people showed up for a rally against the
shopping center organized by the KPRF and held on World
Environment Day in early June. Unscientific questioning of a
few locals garnered the response that it was a "terrible"
thing, but that the bureaucrats would do what they wanted
anyway.


10. (C) According to Mikhail Yevdokimov of Yabloko and
Sergey Vinogradov, an activist for orphans' rights, the
"Dubki" story is typical. Civic activism entailed enforcing
laws that government structures were ignoring, which
Yevdokimov said, government officials perceived as an attack.
Therefore, attracting funds for civic activism from the
wealthy strata of Russian society remained very difficult,
since the upper class did not want to antagonize those in
power.


11. (C) United Civic Front's (Garry Kasparov's party)
Nizhniy Novgorod and Ulyanovsk representatives Vladislav
Lukin and Aleksandr Bragin agreed, noting that bureaucrats'
personal interests had pervaded every sphere of life.
Separately, the Nizhniy Novgorod permanent representative to
the Russian Federation, Sergey Bukin, cited "a guy sitting in
Siberia" (imprisoned oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovskiy) as a
reason for the lack of reinvestment and philanthropic
interest by the Nizhniy local business community. Lukin was
inclined to give less weight to Khodorkovskiy's fate as a
cautionary tale, saying most feared local, not Kremlin,
retaliation.


12. (C) The People's Democratic Union (Mikhail Kasyanov's
party) youth representative Svetlana Sumina commented that
the middle class harbors a deep distrust about how their
donations might be used and, as a result, does not support
such causes. Konstantin Baranovskiy, Chief Editor for
Nizhniy's regional edition of the magazine Argument of the
Week, believed that the middle class was simply not
interested. It was more concerned with issues that directly
affected its economic well-being. Baranovskiy predicted that
when a politician who identifies and addresses those
interests comes along, Russian political apathy will
disappear. He criticized the current rush by most political
parties to the left, telling us that pensions and affordable
housing were of limited interest to Russia's working
electorate.

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Comment
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13. (C) Civic activists and even opposition parties in
Nizhniy Novgorod suffer the same difficulties as many Russian
civil society organizations: they seem unable to transform
themselves into sustainable organizations that appear
relevant to the general public. Their ability to be
effective is further hampered by a ruling party and a
bureaucracy that often have their own personal agenda. The
encouraging observation is that Nizhniy government structures
are not oblivious to public opinion being felt at the polls
in December and will consequently likely delay implementation
of a major investment project for over a year. Nonetheless,
as in much of Russia, civic activism is too weak at this
point to demand accountability.
RUSSELL