CFE: POINTS ON RUSSIAN DELAY IN CONDUCT OF US

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 003088 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/21/2017 TAGS: ASEC PARM PREL KCFE RS BU HU NATO OSCE SUBJECT: CFE: POINTS ON RUSSIAN DELAY IN CONDUCT OF US INSPECTION DELIVERED REF: STATE 87928 Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Daniel A. Russell. Reasons 1.4 ( B/D). ¶1. (C) On June 23, DCM raised concerns about the Russian "force majeure" reply to the latest US request for a CFE inspection with MFA Office of Disarmament and Security Affairs Director Anatoliy Antonov. Drawing upon reftel points, DCM reiterated US expectations that Russia would meet its treaty obligations and that the serious dialogue begun at the CFE Extraordinary Conference would continue within the context of full treaty implementation. He asked for an explanation of Russia's invocation of "force majeure" and for more insight into Russia's intent. ¶2. (C) Antonov replied that no one should have been surprised by Russia's reply. He had made clear both privately and publicly at the CFE Extraordinary Conference that, if no progress was made at the conference, Russia would take measures consistent with its national security interests. Moreover, Russia has cited "force majeure" in response to the two most recent CFE inspection requests from Bulgaria and Hungary. When pressed about the rationale behind "force majeure" and its exact application, Antonov stated simply that he had nothing more to add. He did clarify that the intent was "something more" than a delay of the requested inspection by a few hours or days. Regarding a unilateral suspension of Russia's CFE Treaty obligations, Antonov reiterated that no decision had yet been made. ¶3. (C) COMMENT: We do not anticipate any flexibility in the Russian position on our request. Taken together, the refusal to permit the three most recent requested CFE inspections are the first concrete indication of movement toward a full suspension of Russia's CFE Treaty implementation following the Extraordinary Conference. BURNS