SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANIZATION SUMMIT: RUSSIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 002682

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/06/2017
TAGS: PREL MARR ECON SNAR RS
SUBJECT: SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANIZATION SUMMIT: RUSSIA
EXPECTS NO SURPRISES

REF: A. STATE 77753

B. MOSCOW 2205

Classified By: Political M/C Alice G. Wells. Reasons: 1.4 (B/D).


1. (C) Summary. The GOR is planning "no surprises" at the
August Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Bishkek
summit, according to the MFA's SCO Coordinator. Russia's
goal in Bishkek is to enhance the SCO's activity in the
economic sphere. Moscow judges that the SCO is not ready for
enlargement, nor is there a need for another declaration
demanding a timeline for the withdrawal of U.S. bases. End
summary.

--------------
No Surprises on Manas
--------------


2. (C) Leonid Moiseyev, who took on the role of SCO
Coordinator in February, reiterated to us DFM Losyukov's
earlier pledge to the Ambassador of "no surprises" at the
August Bishkek summit (ref B). Moiseyev said another "ugly"
statement on the U.S. bases in Central Asia would be
pointless; once was enough. "The second time around, the SCO
will only lose face as the bases will stay anyway," he said.
Moiseyev blamed Uzbekistan for the 2005 summit statement and
emphasized that no member state should bring its grievances
to the organization. He also pointed out the "uncomfortable"
logistical arrangements at the summit, where all heads of SCO
member states will land right next to the Manas airbase. He
expected journalists to exploit these optics to embarrass the
SCO. (Note: The Chinese Embassy here recently underlined to
us that the 2005 statement was not a Chinese initiative and
that China was not working with the GOR to seek its
repetition.)

--------------
Membership: Static for Now
--------------


3. (C) Moiseyev noted that besides the two countries --
Iran and Pakistan -- which have applied for full membership,
there are now up to ten countries which have expressed
varying degrees of interest in the organization. The SCO, he
emphasized, was not ready for expansion at the present time;
any move in that direction would be counter-productive.

--------------
Focus on Economic Development
--------------


4. (C) Reviewing the SCO's role, Moiseyev said there was no
alternative organization in Central Asia that could match the
SCO's potential to preserve regional stability. Now that the
"euphoria" surrounding the birth of the new regional
organization was gone, the dynamics among member states were
developing along more realistic lines. If some viewed China
and Russia as manipulating the SCO in its earlier years, now
Kazakhstan and Tajikistan were actively voicing their
opinions and setting the agenda. Moiseyev said Russia's
priority for the organization was to foster economic
cooperation in the region.


5. (C) Vasiliy Mikheyev, a leading scholar on China and
Central Asia at the World Economy and International Relations
(IMEMO),agreed with Moiseyev about Russia's dissatisfaction
with the SCO's activities to promote regional economic
cooperation. Moscow was pushing the new SCO Business Council
as a vehicle to gin up more Russian investment in the region.
According to Mikheyev, a concept paper on how to strengthen
the Business Council -- a result of joint efforts between
Dmitriy Mezentsev, Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council,
and a group of Asia experts including Mikheyev, was making
the rounds through the inter-agency process, and would be
presented at the summit. Mikheyev lamented Russia's
under-investment in Central Asia, and said if Moscow was
worried about Beijing's economic penetration in the region,
Russian investors needed to step forward. As part of an
effort to keep the new post-Niyazov Turkmenistan away from
China's influence, he noted, Russia wanted to invite
Turkmenistan to join EurAsEc (the Eurasian Economic
Community),to which China did not belong.

--------------
Expanding Ties to Kabul?
--------------

MOSCOW 00002682 002 OF 002




6. (C) Turning to Afghanistan, Moiseyev stressed that
addressing the "painful" situation there remained a priority
for Russia. The GOR was not happy with the Beijing-based
SCO-Afghanistan Contact Group and wanted to raise its level
and effectiveness. Karzai had already accepted the
invitation to the Bishkek Summit and, Moiseyev hoped, would
focus on the SCO's counternarcotics efforts. Moiseyev
confirmed that the GOR would seek a dialog between the CSTO
(Collective Security Treaty Organization) and the SCO to
tackle the problem.


7. (C) Comment: We will continue to keep a close eye on
preparations for the summit and the June Bishkek foreign
ministers' meeting to see if Moscow adheres to its "no
surprises" pledge.
RUSSELL