SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANIZATION SUMMIT: RUSSIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 002682 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/06/2017 TAGS: PREL MARR ECON SNAR RS SUBJECT: SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANIZATION SUMMIT: RUSSIA EXPECTS NO SURPRISES REF: A. STATE 77753 ¶B. MOSCOW 2205 Classified By: Political M/C Alice G. Wells. Reasons: 1.4 (B/D). ¶1. (C) Summary. The GOR is planning "no surprises" at the August Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Bishkek summit, according to the MFA's SCO Coordinator. Russia's goal in Bishkek is to enhance the SCO's activity in the economic sphere. Moscow judges that the SCO is not ready for enlargement, nor is there a need for another declaration demanding a timeline for the withdrawal of U.S. bases. End summary. -------------- No Surprises on Manas -------------- ¶2. (C) Leonid Moiseyev, who took on the role of SCO Coordinator in February, reiterated to us DFM Losyukov's earlier pledge to the Ambassador of "no surprises" at the August Bishkek summit (ref B). Moiseyev said another "ugly" statement on the U.S. bases in Central Asia would be pointless; once was enough. "The second time around, the SCO will only lose face as the bases will stay anyway," he said. Moiseyev blamed Uzbekistan for the 2005 summit statement and emphasized that no member state should bring its grievances to the organization. He also pointed out the "uncomfortable" logistical arrangements at the summit, where all heads of SCO member states will land right next to the Manas airbase. He expected journalists to exploit these optics to embarrass the SCO. (Note: The Chinese Embassy here recently underlined to us that the 2005 statement was not a Chinese initiative and that China was not working with the GOR to seek its repetition.) -------------- Membership: Static for Now -------------- ¶3. (C) Moiseyev noted that besides the two countries -- Iran and Pakistan -- which have applied for full membership, there are now up to ten countries which have expressed varying degrees of interest in the organization. The SCO, he emphasized, was not ready for expansion at the present time; any move in that direction would be counter-productive. -------------- Focus on Economic Development -------------- ¶4. (C) Reviewing the SCO's role, Moiseyev said there was no alternative organization in Central Asia that could match the SCO's potential to preserve regional stability. Now that the "euphoria" surrounding the birth of the new regional organization was gone, the dynamics among member states were developing along more realistic lines. If some viewed China and Russia as manipulating the SCO in its earlier years, now Kazakhstan and Tajikistan were actively voicing their opinions and setting the agenda. Moiseyev said Russia's priority for the organization was to foster economic cooperation in the region. ¶5. (C) Vasiliy Mikheyev, a leading scholar on China and Central Asia at the World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO),agreed with Moiseyev about Russia's dissatisfaction with the SCO's activities to promote regional economic cooperation. Moscow was pushing the new SCO Business Council as a vehicle to gin up more Russian investment in the region. According to Mikheyev, a concept paper on how to strengthen the Business Council -- a result of joint efforts between Dmitriy Mezentsev, Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council, and a group of Asia experts including Mikheyev, was making the rounds through the inter-agency process, and would be presented at the summit. Mikheyev lamented Russia's under-investment in Central Asia, and said if Moscow was worried about Beijing's economic penetration in the region, Russian investors needed to step forward. As part of an effort to keep the new post-Niyazov Turkmenistan away from China's influence, he noted, Russia wanted to invite Turkmenistan to join EurAsEc (the Eurasian Economic Community),to which China did not belong. -------------- Expanding Ties to Kabul? -------------- MOSCOW 00002682 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C) Turning to Afghanistan, Moiseyev stressed that addressing the "painful" situation there remained a priority for Russia. The GOR was not happy with the Beijing-based SCO-Afghanistan Contact Group and wanted to raise its level and effectiveness. Karzai had already accepted the invitation to the Bishkek Summit and, Moiseyev hoped, would focus on the SCO's counternarcotics efforts. Moiseyev confirmed that the GOR would seek a dialog between the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) and the SCO to tackle the problem. ¶7. (C) Comment: We will continue to keep a close eye on preparations for the summit and the June Bishkek foreign ministers' meeting to see if Moscow adheres to its "no surprises" pledge. RUSSELL