VOLGOGRAD MAYORAL ELECTION: JUST RUSSIA BOUNCED,

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 002463 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR SOCI RS SUBJECT: VOLGOGRAD MAYORAL ELECTION: JUST RUSSIA BOUNCED, KPRF BEATS UNITED RUSSIA MOSCOW 00002463 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: In what was portrayed as an electoral upset by the national media, Communist Party (KPRF) candidate Roman Grebennikov won the May 20 Volgograd mayoral election, with United Russia State Duma Deputy Vasiliy Galushkin coming in a distant third. "For A Just Russia's" (SR) candidate was struck from the ballot days before the election in a campaign marred by dirty tricks and counterattacks. While local results generally have little predictive value for the December Duma elections, some commentators have claimed that they point to voter disillusionment with United Russia and note that SR's Kremlin support may be withering. A closer reading of the results shows that this was a victory of a well-known local candidate, whom United Russia is moving quickly to co-opt. End summary. -------------- United Russia Fumbles, KPRF Takes All -------------- ¶2. (U) On May 20, 31-year-old KPRF candidate Roman Grebennikov won 32.74 percent of the vote in the Volgograd mayoral election. Voter turnout was 38 percent. Unaffiliated acting mayor Roland Kheryanov took 23.85 percent and the candidate of the pro-Kremlin United Russia party, Duma Deputy Vasiliy Galushkin, ran an erratic campaign and garnered only 20.35 percent. SR nominated construction company general director Oleg Mikheyev less than a month before election day and he was struck from the ballot three days before the election. -------------- Litigious Campaigning -------------- ¶3. (U) The election campaign was rife with attempts to de-register candidates. Mikheyev was de-registered on April 28 for bribing voters, supposedly as a result of a deal between United Russia and KPRF Volgograd Governor Nikolay Maksyuta. Mikheyev continued campaigning until the appeal was upheld on May 17, at which point, according to Indem analyst Yuriy Korgunyuk, he called on his supporters to vote for Grebennikov. Grebennikov survived two de-registration attempts. Both Kheryanov and Galushkin withstood charges of illegal use of administrative resources. In the week before the election, a tape surfaced of Galushkin's campaign workers using threats to extract contributions from factory workers. Days before the election, Galushkin attempted to drop out of the race because of unnamed "pressure," which was rumored to have been from United Russia's national leadership. His subsequent decision to stay in the race may not have been sanctioned by United Russia's leadership. -------------- Defeat for United Russia? -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Some commentators have billed United Russia's defeat in Volgograd as the product of growing disillusionment with the Kremlin party in the Volga region. (NOTE: SR's Viktor Tarkhov won Samara's mayoral election in October 2006 and A Just Russia won the party vote in Stavropol's March 2007 regional election.) Grebennikov is a well-known and popular local politician, a lawyer who has been a regional duma deputy since 1998, and was speaker from 2001-2005. Indem's Korgunyuk told us that the result was unsurprising given Grebennikov's prominence in Volgograd. He thought Grebennikov's success had nothing to do with his party affiliation. Further, Korgunyuk noted that in the traditionally Communist "red belt," KPRF membership did not hurt. ¶5. (SBU) United Russia may not have been wholeheartedly behind its candidate either. In an apparent effort to distance the party from Galushkin's faltering campaign, Volgograd United Russia representative Yuriy Oleynikov highlighted before the election that the platforms of all the favorite candidates matched United Russia's. United Russia Duma Deputy and First Deputy Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin stated that the party had supported multiple candidates, one of whom was Grebennikov. According to United Russia's website, Duma speaker Boris Gryzlov had meetings in which Grebennikov had called himself an independent candidate who would work with all parties. And indeed, Grebennikov's ballot entry also listed him as an independent. The KPRF's Ivan Melnikov dismissed such talk as United Russia's attempt to deflect attention from the "obvious" defeat of its brand. MOSCOW 00002463 002.2 OF 002 ¶6. (SBU) Nonetheless, Grebennikov has promised to work with United Russia, which has majorities in the city, regional, and State dumas. Governor Maksyuta, who refused to ally himself with any of the mayoral candidates, attended a United Russia party meeting endorsing Galushkin ten days before the election. -------------- Just Russia Too Threatening? -------------- ¶7. (SBU) A Just Russia Duma Deputy Oksana Dmitrieva told us on May 21 that she considered the Volgograd result to be further evidence of A Just Russia's waning popularity with the Kremlin. She argued that the KPRF is now being positioned as the "opposition" party. VTsIOM analyst Leontiy Byzov concurred. Byzov noted to us that while provincial results do not predict what will happen nationally, the KPRF appears to be increasingly popular. He argued that KPRF's popularity is now in the Kremlin's interest because SR is not siphoning off KPRF votes, as was intended, instead it has become apparent that SR is taking United Russia votes. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (SBU) As closer examination usually reveals, all politics are local and the image of a United Russia dominated Russia is often challenged by local election outcomes. In this case, United Russia could not keep a good man down -- even if he is a Communist -- and has moved quickly to co-opt him. BURNS