LATVIAN BORDER TREATY: DUMA RATIFICATION SLOW BUT

UNCLAS MOSCOW 002434 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PBTS PGOV LG RS SUBJECT: LATVIAN BORDER TREATY: DUMA RATIFICATION SLOW BUT COMING REF: MOSCOW 1314 ¶1. (SBU) The GOR has begun the process of ratifying the border treaty with Latvia, which was signed March 27 by the two countries' prime ministers and ratified May 17 by the Latvian Parliament. We understand from the MFA that although there are a number of required bureaucratic steps that will slow ratification, the GOR is committed to moving forward, with likely completion somewhere between late June and early fall. ¶2. (SBU) Andrey Skachkov, Head of the MFA's Latvia Desk, underlined that the complexity of the GOR ratification process is the only culprit behind the delay. While the treaty was reviewed in the interagency before signature, the treaty needs to be reviewed again by involved agencies, including the Finance Ministry, before transmittal by President Putin to the State Duma with a presidential directive. After Duma approval, the treaty will move to the Federation Council, which, after its approval, will send the treaty back to the President, who will issue a final implementing decree. According to Skachkov, the procedure is purely bureaucratic and he expects no political problems. Beyond a few grumbles among Duma members, neither a long-standing bilateral irritant -- Latvia's treatment of the Russian minority -- nor the recent Estonian turmoil is expected to affect the ratification process. ¶3. (SBU) Skachkov offered late June as an optimistic assessment and early fall as a more realistic prediction for ratification. He assured us that the Russian leadership appreciated the prompt Latvian ratification and that the GOR was poised to move the process forward. ¶4. (SBU) Janis Zlamets of the Latvian Embassy told us that President Vike-Freiberga will promulgate the ratified treaty on Monday May 28. With the already-agreed border currently functioning well, Zlamets did not expect any major problem with Russian ratification. One "minor" wrinkle: the issue of the Russian minority in Latvia will surely appear in Duma discussions while many Duma members, not making distinctions among the three Baltic countries, will apply their displeasure with Estonia to Latvia. Zlamets noted that the GOR's rhetoric vis-a-vis Latvia has softened over time and the earlier tough line had faded. BURNS