GREAT RUSSIA PARTY: SURVIVAL UNLIKELY

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 002267

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/16/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM RS
SUBJECT: GREAT RUSSIA PARTY: SURVIVAL UNLIKELY


Classified By: Political M/C Alice G. Wells for reasons 1.4(b/d).


1. (SBU) Summary: The Great Russia (GR) party, launched with
some fanfare on May 5 by Duma Deputies Aleksey Savelyev and
Dmitriy Rogozin, may not be on the December Duma ballot.
While interlocutors concur that GR's nationalistic message
should make it relatively easy to find the requisite number
of members (50,000) to qualify as a party, they are doubtful
that the Kremlin is in the mood for potentially
uncontrollable political developments prior to the December
parliamentary elections. End summary.

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Although "Russia for Russians" is an attractive slogan...
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2. (U) The newly-created Great Russia party, which held its
inaugural congress on May 5, is designed to fit into Russia's
ever-expanding national-patriotic part of the political
spectrum. Its creators include Andrey Savelyev (deputy from
the Kremlin's second party, A Just Russia),Dmitriy Rogozin
(also A Just Russia deputy, as well as leader of the
nationalistic Congress of Russian Communities),and Aleksandr
Belov (leader of the Movement Against Illegal Immigration).
The more controversial Rogozin and Belov are not listed as
formal Great Russia leaders, however. Savelyev expressed
confidence at the press conference unveiling the party that
Great Russia would be registered, since the party's
documentation had mimicked that of A Just Russia, which had
been registered without difficulty. He also asserted to the
press that they expected GR to win 25 percent of the vote in
the December Duma elections.


3. (C) Ulyanovsk's United Civil Front/Yabloko representative
Aleksandr Bragin joined other EMBASSY contacts in believing
that, regrettably, the "fascist" messages of Rogozin and
Belov could attract enough supporters to allow GR to be
registered as a party.

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...Great Russia does not enjoy Kremlin support
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4. (C) Most contacts, however, believe that Great Russia
will be stymied in its registration quest. Ekho Moskvy
Editor Aleksey Venediktov rated Great Russia's chance of
being registered low because it lacked Kremlin support.
Indem's Yuriy Korgunyuk agreed, noting that should the
Kremlin feel the need to get the nationalistic element of the
electorate to the polls, it would be simpler to re-calibrate
United Russia's message.


5. (C) Duma deputy Aleksey Mitrofanov summarily dismissed
Great Russia as a potential political force, since his LDPR
was Russia's "patriotic" party. Other Russia's Irina
Khakamada told us that it was questionable whether the
Kremlin would even allow the party the opportunity to conduct
fundraising, since the appeal of its nationalistic rhetoric
unnerved the GOR leadership.


6. (SBU) Subsequent developments have no doubt been
discouraging for GR. Savelyev was questioned on May 7 by the
Moscow procurator, at LDPR's request, about rumors that his
party was being financed by political exile Boris
Berezovskiy. Acting Federal Registration Service head of
political party registration Galina Fokina announced publicly
that she doubted that Great Russia would be able to complete
all requirements by the end of August, in time to allow it to
compete in the December Duma elections.

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Comment
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7. (SBU) Any prospective party with Kremlin support could
easily be registered in time for the Duma elections, but
Great Russia and Rogozin are not Kremlin favorites.
Beginning with the December 2005 Moscow election, Rogozin's
Rodina party was neutralized when Rogozin's ambition and the
popularity of the party's nationalistic message caused it to
slip out of the Kremlin's control. The Kremlin appears to be
in no mood for similar spontaneity in this election cycle.
It is possible that with Great Russia Savelyev and Rogozin
wanted only to demonstrate their own appeal in order to
ensure that they will be considered as A Just Russia shapes
its party lists.
BURNS