MOSCOW GEARS UP FOR WEEKEND OF DEMONSTRATIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 001703 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/RUS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2017 TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM SOCI RS SUBJECT: MOSCOW GEARS UP FOR WEEKEND OF DEMONSTRATIONS Classified By: Acting Pol M/C Colin Cleary. Reason: 1.4 (d). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Saturday, April 14, promises to be a banner day for Moscow, with three major groups --the anti-government Other Russia, the anti-immigrant Movement Against Illegal Immigration, and the pro-Kremlin youth group Young Guard scheduled to stage separate demonstrations around the city. Other Russia's efforts have attracted the most attention, both from the government and the media. Their efforts to stage a "March of Dissent" have been nixed by the Moscow city administration, but Other Russia leaders seem determined to persist, which could lead to a confrontation with the police. Other Russia's latest attempt to protest takes place against the background of earlier marches in Nizhniy Novgorod and St. Petersburg that were forcibly disrupted by the authorities. The April 14 Moscow event will be immediately followed by an April 15 demonstration in St. Petersburg, then an April 28 encore in Nizhniy Novgorod. Ambassador has conveyed our concerns to Deputy Foreign Minister Kislyak. End summary. -------------- March of Dissent -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The umbrella organization Other Russia (OR) April 13 remains determined to push forward with its plans to march in central Moscow April 14 in spite of increasingly strenuous efforts by city authorities to dissuade them. Other Russia's "March of Dissent" demonstration site and alternate march routes have all been rejected by the city, allegedly on the grounds that the pro-Kremlin youth group "Young Guard" had filed for a meeting permit first. Other Russia has in turn rejected an alternate meeting site (Turgenev Square) and the offer of a march on the city's outskirts (Tushino),and persisted with its plans to assemble on Pushkin Square in central Moscow, then march to Turgenev Square. ¶3. (U) In response, Moscow law enforcement has termed the March of the Dissenters a "provocation," and has promised "special security control" at metro stations near Pushkin Square. The city, reportedly, is assembling about nine thousand police and internal affairs troops including, according to Other Russia representatives, special forces troops from other Russian regions. ¶4. (SBU) Moscow law enforcement has also stepped up its pressure on OR march organizers. The Prosecutors Office has officially warned ex-Prime Minister and OR leader Mikhail Kasyanov not to participate. OR leader Garry Kasparov has also been warned. Both intend to participate, as does National Bolshevik Party and OR leader Eduard Limonov, who also received a letter from the Prosecutor. ¶5. (C) In an April 11 conversation, a fatigued Kasparov confirmed that OR intended to defy the march ban, but insisted that March of Dissent participants would go out of their way to avoid confrontation. He worried, however, about "provocations" that could lead to clashes between marchers and the police or marchers and thugs brought in for that purpose. OR had assembled a team of "15 - 20 lawyers" to cope with the detentions Kasparov expected would occur when "about five thousand demonstrators" converged on Pushkin Square. (Others predict a much smaller turnout.) He noted that attempts by "For Human Rights" NGO activist Lev Ponomarev to broker an agreement via Human Rights Ombudsman Vladimir Lukin and Presidential Council Human Rights Chairwoman Ella Panfilova had come to nothing. On the bright side, Kasparov said, was the fact that OR had been allowed to print and distribute a special edition newspaper advertising the march. ¶6. (C) Kasparov recalled with relish that at one point during OR's negotiations with the city, the convention center site had been offered as an alternative, then hastily withdrawn after city authorities realized that its relatively central location, large number of bystanders, and proximity to a natural rallying point (Ostankino television tower) made it ideal for OR's purposes. ¶7. (C) Kasparov was relatively pleased with the more relaxed attitude of St. Petersburg authorities, who had allowed an OR meeting for April 15 after banning its predecessor. He welcomed what he said was Governor Matviyenko's willingness this time to meet with OR Petersburg's march organizers, although he noted that her invitation had gone hand-in-hand with what he said was a demand by the city prosecutor that OR MOSCOW 00001703 002 OF 002 meet, but not march. Kasparov was also pleased with what he described as an imminent "schism" in Grigoriy Yavlinskiy's Yabloko party, with its St. Petersburg Yabloko branch agreeing to formally join the March of Dissent. (Note: After the April 11 conversation with Kasparov, the St. Petersburg Yabloko leadership was summoned to Moscow by Yavlinskiy, who reportedly ordered it not to participate in the march. Yabloko since has issued a statement criticizing both the city authorities and OR for their unwillingness to avoid confrontation.) -------------- Chechen Friendship Society's Dmitrievskiy and Chelnysheva Briefly Detained -------------- ¶8. (C) The Nizhniy Novgorod-based Stanislav Dmitrievskiy and Oksana Chelnysheva of the Fund for Tolerance (previously the Russian-Chechen Friendship Society) told us April 13 that they were briefly questioned when boarding a train for Moscow on April 13. Both were orally warned of "negative consequences" if they participated in the March of Dissent. The two were briefly questioned upon arrival in Moscow by "very polite" police, who told them they were acting on request of their Nizhniy Novgorod police colleagues. The Moscow police told Dmitrievskiy and Chelnysheva they saw no reason to detain them. According to Kasparov, OR march participants boarding a train from Rostov on Don were detained, in one case for two days, before being released. -------------- Movement Against Illegal Immigration March -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Also scheduled April 14 is an anti-government and anti-"Orange Revolution" demonstration, staged in central Moscow by the Movement Against Illegal Immigration. The Movement's pamphlets rail against corruption, immigration, and the political elite, but they especially take aim at the "liberals" and the "false opposition," which suggests that their demonstration is as much an effort to channel the discontent of some away from OR. The Movement is predicting that 1,500 will turn out for the protest. -------------- The Pro-Kremlin Young Guards -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Finally, the well-financed, pro-Kremlin youth group Young Guard will convene as many as 15 thousand of its own for a meeting --"Against Revolutionary Chaos and Orange Tainted Meat"-- to be held in front of Moscow University and at Pushkin Square. If the last such event is any guide, many will be bussed in from the regions, and most will have little idea of why they are there. Like the Movement Against Illegal Immigration event, Young Guard's demonstration is clearly intended as a counter to OR's. The Moscow University Young Guard event in a clear reference to OR's March of Dissent, has been designated a "March of Agreement," and its purpose is to showcase support for the status quo. Both Young Guard events will feature music and the crowd will be addressed by regional and national political personalities. -------------- Ambassador Registers Concerns -------------- ¶11. (C) Ambassador has raised our concerns about the treatment of demonstrators with Deputy Foreign Minister Kislyak. BURNS