RUSSIA-GEORGIA: CALM BEFORE THE STORM?

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 001374

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/29/2017
TAGS: PREL PHUM MARR EU GG RS
SUBJECT: RUSSIA-GEORGIA: CALM BEFORE THE STORM?

REF: A. MOSCOW 1316 B. BRINK TBILISI E-MAIL

Classified By: PolMilCouns Alice G. Wells. Reason: 1.4 (b, d)


1. (C) Russian non-official commentators have shown little
interest in reacting to the Georgian suit against Russia in
the European Court for Human Rights. Even Sergey Markov --
usually the shrillest parrot of any line the Kremlin takes --
called for handling the matter between the foreign ministries
of the two countries. "God forbid there should be any sort
of 'war,'" he told the press; his statements were typical of
the Moscow punditry.


2. (C) Officials, too, have backed away from the anger
expressed privately by DFM Karasin (Ref. A); the irritated
statement posted on the MFA website, which used harsh
language to denounce the move as propaganda designed to
attract support from anti-Russian powers; and the noxious
depiction of Georgia and its government in the MFA's overview
of foreign relations (septel). Andrey Kokoshin, chair of the
Duma CIS Committee, regretted to the press on March 28 that
this incident had occurred just as Russian-Georgian relations
had started improving; he blamed Georgian politicians for
currying favor with the EU rather than solving their problems
with Russia. Kokoshin's deputy Andrey Savelev, while
doubting the sincerity of the suit, reminded the public that
"Russia suffered a perceptible loss of its own making when it
tried to persecute immigrants from Georgia on specifically
ethnic grounds." Even FM Lavrov, usually scathing, confined
himself in answering a general question on Georgia in a
public Q and A to the more-in-sorrow-than-anger reflection
that the Georgian leadership does not reflect the attitudes
of the Georgian people, and that the MFA will react without
hysterics and not by calling names back.

Comment
--------------


3. (C) The GOR is probably holding off for two reasons.
First, the anti-Georgian campaign that is the subject of the
ECHR suit was unpopular among Russians and produced strong
public protests; eventually Putin himself stopped the
campaign, calling those carrying it out over-eager idiots.
Second, the GOR may be keeping its powder dry to deal with a
new threat: the April 5 release of findings of the
UNOMIG-led Joint Fact Finding Mission pointing to Russian
involvement in the March 11 attack in the Upper Kodori Gorge
(Ref. B).


RUSSELL