Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07MOSCOW1106
2007-03-14 15:33:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Moscow
Cable title:
RUSSIAN STOCKS DOWN AFTER U.S., ASIAN MARKETS SLIP
how-toVZCZCXYZ0011 PP RUEHWEB DE RUEHMO #1106 0731533 ZNR UUUUU ZZH P 141533Z MAR 07 FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8260 INFO RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC PRIORITY RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC PRIORITY RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
UNCLAS MOSCOW 001106
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
STATE FOR EUR/RUS
TREASURY FOR BAKER/GAERTNER
NSC FOR TRACY MCKIBBEN
USDOC FOR 4231/IEP/EUR/JBROUGHER
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EFIN ECON RS
SUBJECT: RUSSIAN STOCKS DOWN AFTER U.S., ASIAN MARKETS SLIP
REF: MOSCOW 841
UNCLAS MOSCOW 001106
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
STATE FOR EUR/RUS
TREASURY FOR BAKER/GAERTNER
NSC FOR TRACY MCKIBBEN
USDOC FOR 4231/IEP/EUR/JBROUGHER
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EFIN ECON RS
SUBJECT: RUSSIAN STOCKS DOWN AFTER U.S., ASIAN MARKETS SLIP
REF: MOSCOW 841
1. (U) This message is sensitive but unclassified and not
for Internet distribution.
2. (SBU) U.S. economic reports that sent the NYSE and NASDAQ
tumbling on March 13 had a similar effect on the March 14
trading session in Russia. The opening of the March 14
trading session saw the benchmark, dollar-denominated RTS
Index 2.5 percent lower, and the broader, ruble-denominated
MICEX Index was 4.4 percent lower; as of 6:20pm Moscow time,
the indices were down 2.29 percent and 2.92 percent,
respectively. Alfa Bank Chief Economist Natalia Orlova
suggested that the lackluster figures have made relatively
nervous investors more jittery about the short-term prospects
that the U.S. "economic engine" can continue to support other
economies.
3. (SBU) Troika Dialog Chief Economist Evgeny Gavrilenkov
observed that lower crude oil prices have also added to
short-term worries. He said the drop in the indices reflects
concern about the percentage of market capitalization that is
dependent on oil. Gavrilenkov noted that losses during March
14 trading would probably still be in line with his and other
analysts' expectations for the post-Shanghai correction. He
observed that both RTS and MICEX had been tredning gradually
upward in the last week.
Comment
--------------
4. (SBU) The main Russian indices remain within the
consensus estimates for this correction. Most analysts
forecast that losses could extend until mid-April and that
RTS and MICEX could lose 20 percent off their February 27
"peaks." If our contacts have characterized the current
Russian investor sentiment accurately, we would expect stock
prices to track closely with upcoming key economic data
releases in the U.S., Europe and Asia.
BURNS
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
STATE FOR EUR/RUS
TREASURY FOR BAKER/GAERTNER
NSC FOR TRACY MCKIBBEN
USDOC FOR 4231/IEP/EUR/JBROUGHER
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EFIN ECON RS
SUBJECT: RUSSIAN STOCKS DOWN AFTER U.S., ASIAN MARKETS SLIP
REF: MOSCOW 841
1. (U) This message is sensitive but unclassified and not
for Internet distribution.
2. (SBU) U.S. economic reports that sent the NYSE and NASDAQ
tumbling on March 13 had a similar effect on the March 14
trading session in Russia. The opening of the March 14
trading session saw the benchmark, dollar-denominated RTS
Index 2.5 percent lower, and the broader, ruble-denominated
MICEX Index was 4.4 percent lower; as of 6:20pm Moscow time,
the indices were down 2.29 percent and 2.92 percent,
respectively. Alfa Bank Chief Economist Natalia Orlova
suggested that the lackluster figures have made relatively
nervous investors more jittery about the short-term prospects
that the U.S. "economic engine" can continue to support other
economies.
3. (SBU) Troika Dialog Chief Economist Evgeny Gavrilenkov
observed that lower crude oil prices have also added to
short-term worries. He said the drop in the indices reflects
concern about the percentage of market capitalization that is
dependent on oil. Gavrilenkov noted that losses during March
14 trading would probably still be in line with his and other
analysts' expectations for the post-Shanghai correction. He
observed that both RTS and MICEX had been tredning gradually
upward in the last week.
Comment
--------------
4. (SBU) The main Russian indices remain within the
consensus estimates for this correction. Most analysts
forecast that losses could extend until mid-April and that
RTS and MICEX could lose 20 percent off their February 27
"peaks." If our contacts have characterized the current
Russian investor sentiment accurately, we would expect stock
prices to track closely with upcoming key economic data
releases in the U.S., Europe and Asia.
BURNS