REGIONAL ELECTIONS: UNITED RUSSIA WINS THIRTEEN;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 001023 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/12/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM RS SUBJECT: REGIONAL ELECTIONS: UNITED RUSSIA WINS THIRTEEN; JUST RUSSIA GETS ON THE SCOREBOARD REF: 06 MOSCOW 11413 Classified By: DCM Daniel A. Russell for reasons 1.4(b) and (d) ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Preliminary, unconfirmed results from regional elections held March 11 in fourteen Russian regions show the Kremlin-backed United Russia party in first place in thirteen of the fourteen contests. United Russia did not win more than forty percent of the votes in all contests, as hoped, and it may have lost the Stavropol race to the "second," Kremlin-approved party, "For A Just Russia." "For A Just Russia" appears to have finished a strong second in a number of key regions, and seems well-positioned for the December State Duma elections. Preliminary results suggest that the Communist Party (KPRF) and Vladimir Zhirinovskiy's LDPR crossed the seven-percent threshold in most other legislatures, with results in the 12 - 19 percent range. To the surprise of many observers, the Union of Right Forces (SPS) crossed the seven-percent threshold in at least four of the eight regions in which it was registered. Election monitors have reported violations, but a final report card on the election will have to await a complete tally of the votes and the reactions of observers at polls around the country. Final results are expected by March 15. End summary. -------------- United Russia Wins -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The ruling party had a very good day at the March 11 polls, with United Russia receiving 69 percent of the vote in Dagestan (septel to follow),almost 50 percent in the Moscow region, and 48 percent in Tomsk and Pskov. (As of this writing, preliminary results are available for Stavropol, Tomsk, Samara, Leningrad region, St. Petersburg, and Dagestan only.) United Russia appears not to have achieved its widely-announced target of garnering over forty percent of the vote in all regions, although it came close, winning 34 - 39 percent of the votes in regions where preliminary results are available, including 38 percent in St. Petersburg. -------------- Just Russia: Takes Stavropol -------------- ¶3. (SBU) For A Just Russia (SR),the Kremlin's "left-wing" party, claimed in the wake of the election to have achieved its goal of breaking United Russia's monopoly on political power. SR's Mikhail Demurin told us March 12 that his party had never doubted it would pass the seven-percent threshold in these elections. (Preliminary reports indicate that SR may not have received seven percent in the Omsk election.) Demurin underscored that SR's success boded well for the upcoming State Duma election, and averred that now United Russia would need to take Just Russia's position into account in writing legislation. -------------- KPRF and LDPR: Representation Achieved -------------- ¶4. (SBU) KPRF and LDPR appear to have polled in the 12 - 19 percent range, with KPRF at the higher end in most reported contests. KPRF's Gennadiy Zyuganov professed himself pleased with the results, noting that KPRF had doubled its share of the vote in a number of big cities, including St. Petersburg. He dismissed the possibility, floated by Just Russia's Sergey Mironov, that KPRF would be willing to form coalitions with SR and LDPR in regional legislatures. -------------- SPS: Getting a Voice -------------- ¶5. (SBU) To the surprise of many observers, the liberal Union of Right Forces (SPS) appears to have crossed the seven-percent threshold in four of the eight regions where it was registered. The lone exception, for regions where results are available, was Omsk. SPS received approximately eight percent of the vote in Samara, Tomsk, and Stavropol and is reportedly hovering at about seven percent in Leningrad region. SPS Deputy Chairman Leonid Gozman told us March 12 that he was disappointed with the Omsk results and pegged SPS's poor showing in St. Petersburg to Yabloko, which had urged its voters to boycott the elections following Yabloko's failure to be registered. Yabloko voters, Gozman thought, would have otherwise cast their votes for his party. The results showed, Gozman said, that SPS was the only liberal party capable of competing nationally. MOSCOW 00001023 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C) The better-than-expected performance of SPS, including in regions where its party machine was negligible (Tomsk, Samara, and Stavropol),intensified speculation of behind-the-scenes support from the Kremlin -- a charge SPS rejects. (Golos told us that SPS representatives in Samara boasted of being "promised" ten percent.) -------------- Yabloko Out -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Yabloko appears not to have crossed the threshold in any region. Party representatives contacted by the Embassy refused to comment on the elections until all results are in. -------------- Preliminary Reports Show Minor Violations -------------- ¶8. (SBU) There have been scattered reports of election day violations, especially in St. Petersburg, Samara, and Omsk. Central Election Commission (CEC) Chairman Veshnyakov said March 12 that neither the CEC nor the St. Petersburg regional election commission had received reports of serious violation on election day. In Dagestan, criminal proceedings will be brought for the theft of 1916 ballots. In Tuva's run-off election, one candidate's name was allegedly omitted from a ballot. According to SPS Deputy Gozman, elections in Samara and Komi met basic standards. Embassy will provide a fuller analysis of the elections once complete results are available. -------------- Voter Turnout -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Prior to the election, commentators suggested that changes to the election law, especially the removal of the "against all" box on the ballot and the elimination of a minimal voter turnout requirement would induce voters to sit out the election. Veshnyakov, citing an average turnout of 33 percent, reported March 12 that there had been no significant decline in voter participation on March 11 and, in fact, turnout in the fourteen regions was higher than it had been four years ago. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶10. (C) Given United Russia's easy access to administrative resources, its near-sweep was not unexpected, but the strong showing made by the other three parties: Just Russia, KPRF, and LDPR indicate that the upcoming Duma and Presidential elections may be closer than expected. SPS's somewhat surprising results in several regions indicate that it is learning how to translate a negligible political presence into votes. BURNS