MERCOSUR SUMMIT: POLITICAL ATMOSPHERICS IMPROVE,

UNCLAS MONTEVIDEO 001053 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE PASS TO USTR E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECIN ECON ETRD AR BOL BR CH PY VZ XR UY SUBJECT: MERCOSUR SUMMIT: POLITICAL ATMOSPHERICS IMPROVE, ECONOMIC STANDSTILL REMAINS SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Presidents from the four Mercosur countries plus Chile, Bolivia and Venezuela met in Montevideo on December 18 at Mercosur%s 34th Common Market Council. Unlike in previous meetings, and contrary to pre-Summit expectations, the gathering was diplomatic and pleasant. Uruguayan President Vazquez was notably friendly with his Argentine counterpart in an apparent effort to tone down the harsh conflict between their two countries. Argentine President Fernandez and Venezuelan President Chavez darted the USG, Bolivian President Morales called for an international investigation into recent events at Sucre, Paraguayan President Duarte celebrated the concessions granted to his country and Chilean President Bachelet called for Mercosur to move forward in areas such as services. Vazquez highlighted Mercosur%s trade agreement with Israel and insisted on the need for open regionalism and to allow member states to negotiate trade agreements independently. From an economic standpoint, Mercosur showed no tangible progress on most relevant issues. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) On December 18, Presidents Fernandez from Argentina, Da Silva from Brazil, Duarte from Paraguay, Vazquez from Uruguay, Morales from Bolivia, Bachelet from Chile and Chavez from Venezuela attended the Presidential Summit following the 34th Mercosur Common Market Council, the bloc's principal body. Russia's President Putin was represented by his Ambassador to Uruguay and Mexico's President Calderon by his Minister of Foreign Affairs. The EU Commissioner for Monetary and Economic Affairs was a special guest to the Summit. Contrary to previous Mercosur Summits - which were loaded with tension and recrimination-, the climate in Montevideo was affable and all presidents made positive remarks about the bloc. GOOD ATMOSPHERICS,... -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Vazquez was notably genteel with Fernandez, both in speech and gesture. He told her she could feel at home in Montevideo and emphasized that "no Argentine is an alien in Uruguay". Vazquez' conciliatory speech, and his decision not to table the Botnia pulp mill, signaled his intention to tone down the conflict with Argentina and seek a positive relationship with the new Argentine president. Meanwhile, �00A;protestors displayed a sign outside the Mercosur building sarcastically read "Welcome President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, enjoy Uruguay at ease, we are well-mannered and do not attack our guests, especially if they can not reply". The sign was promptly removed by the police. ...SOME MINOR POLITICAL SUCCESSES,... -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Vazquez touted Mercosur%s achievements during Uruguay's six months pro-tempore presidency, and stated that "if in past occasions I have been critical of Mercosur, I must admit that it is making progress." He nevertheless called for "concrete actions" to solve the bloc's problems, "as we medical doctors say, diagnoses do not cure, they help the therapeutic process but you need concrete actions." Referring to the FTA with Israel Vazquez called for the bloc to actively undertake open regionalism and, in closing, urged the bloc to allow its smaller members flexibility to negotiate trade agreements independently from Mercosur to help them resolve the bloc's huge asymmetries. ¶5. (SBU) One of the most trumpeted results of the Summit was the FTA with Israel that provides for duty free trade of more than 90% of goods over an eight-year term. The agreement represents limited commercial relevance since bilateral trade is very low (less than 0.5% of Mercosur%s exports go to Israel while Mercosur absorbs about 1.0% of Israel's sales) and concentrated on few goods (Mercosur exports beef and Israel exports fertilizers). However, as the bloc's first extra-regional agreement with a developed country, the agreement is a positive sign of more open regionalism. The Summit's Communiqu highlighted Mercosur%s "political will to reach an inter-regional association with the EU" and celebrated that the EU will provide 50 million euros for non-refundable cooperation under a bi-regional 2007-2013 cooperation program. ...BUT, CONTINUED STAGNATION ON ECONOMIC ISSUES -------------- -- ¶6. (SBU) The Summit once again failed to approve a customs code or to eliminate the double imposition of the common external tariff (CET). Currently non-Mercosur goods are subject to the bloc's CET upon entering each country. Brazil's President Da Silva partially blamed the presidents% lack of leadership for the lack of progress and proposed to address both issues aggressively during the coming semester. CRISTINA LASHES OUT AT THE U.S. -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Argentina's President Fernandez delivered a spirited political speech that criticized neo-liberal policies, called for a multi-polar world, and indirectly lashed out at the US. She stated that "in this South American neighborhood there are some visitors that do not recognize that neighbors get along well and (instead) promote actions to divide us and move us apart". In a clear reference to the Antonini case she added that "...its not politics that is dirty, its politicians from inside and outside of our countries who make dirty operations". She continued "many more times we will suffer, as we are currently suffering, interference ...by those who want subordinate countries..." and warned that "they will not bend us.". On Mercosur, Fernandez stated that during its pro-tempore presidency the GOA will work actively to pass a customs code and eliminate the double imposition of the CET. The GOA also plans work to sort out asymmetries (a leitmotivs of the summit),foster the integration of productive c hains across countries and develop infrastructure projects. Fernandez called for the prompt incorporation of Venezuela into Mercosur and argued that such integration would help "the energy equation" in a region that is rich on "energy, food and knowledge". CHAVEZ BRINGS A LIGHTER TOUCH, BUT WITH FOREBODING -------------- -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Chavez urged the Brazilian and Paraguayan Congresses to approve Venezuela's integration into Mercosur. He joked that Mercosur should give Venezuela a prize "for its resilience as it has been nine years since they first applied for full Mercosur membership." Chavez argued that at that time the delay was somehow reasonable since Southern Cone countries were in the "midst of the freezing neo-liberal night." He insisted that Venezuela was not backtracking to join the Andean Community or the G3. In an improvised press conference outside the Summit, Chavez, joined by Morales, warned the USG "not to force them into violent revolution in Bolivia". Quoting Kennedy, Chavez warned the U.S. that "those revolutions that are not pacific end up violent. We both (referring to Morales) want to make a peaceful revolution. Do not force us to make it violent." MORALES CALLS FOR AN INVESTIGATION INTO SUCRE -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Morales focused his speech on Bolivia's political situation and vowed that his administration "would never thwart human rights or democracy." He called for "an international investigation on the Sucre events" and complained that three weeks have gone by without forensic results. In previous cases, he said, forensic exams only took a couple of hours. President Vazquez and In its capacity as pro-tempore president, Uruguay championed a Mercosur statement in support of "Bolivia's institutional regime, based on democratic principles." PARAGUAY UNCHARACTERISTICALLY CONTENT -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Duarte, who like Vazquez had been extremely critical of Mercosur, also made positive remarks on the bloc and was particularly pleased with the its structural fund, FOCEM. He mentioned FOCEM's recent announcement of $45 million in new funding for Paraguay, bringing total funding to $114 million. Duarte was also pleased with the exception granted to Paraguay to apply lower import tariffs on information and telecommunication goods until 2015. He explained that this special import regime was essential for Ciudad del Este that accounts for about 20%-25% of Paraguay's exports. CHILE PROVIDES A SOBER ASSESSMENT -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Bachelet was the only president to highlight the importance of multilateral negotiations. She gave a comprehensive and concise speech in which she acknowledged that Mercosur has made progress, but still needed to move forward on key areas like services, government procurement, investments and technological issues. She stated that Mercosur is "more than a trading bloc" and mentioned the creation of a political coordination forum (proposed by the GOA),an anti-corruption working group (proposed by the GOU) and the bloc's statements on whale hunting in the Antarctic (proposed by Chile) as indications of positive political coordination. COMMENT -------------- ¶12. (SBU) Comment: Unlike previous meetings, the Montevideo Summit took place in a remarkably diplomatic fashion, at least as far as criticism of the bloc was concerned. In Uruguay, many observers anticipated that recent sparks between the GOU and GOA over the pulp mill dispute would taint the summit. The lack of rhetoric on this front may offer a chance for the two governments to begin rebuilding their relationship. Where ire was expressed, it was directed squarely at the U.S., giving the impression that more anti-U.S. bombast could yield greater regional unity. However, Uruguay continued its push, albeit with a softer tone, for open regionalism and freedom to negotiate independently from Mercosur. From an economic standpoint, Mercosur continues to be at a standstill and has only kicked the "can" down the street. Harding