UDF FALLING BEHIND ON JOINT CANDIDATE LIST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000976 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/26/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR EAID BO SUBJECT: UDF FALLING BEHIND ON JOINT CANDIDATE LIST REF:QA. Minsk 453 ¶B. Minsk 901 ¶C. Minsk 950 ¶D. Minsk 968 ¶E. Minsk 920 Classified By: Ambassador Karen Stewart for reason 1.4 (d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Belarus' United Democratic Forces (UDF) have fallen significantly behind their self-imposed timetable for formation of a unified slate of candidates for 2008 parliamentary elections. While UDF co-chairs had hoped a candidate list would be complete by mid-November (refs B, D),USAID-funded implementers IRI and NDI admit that the work remains in its early stages, with the first regional coalitions not likely to be formed before early December. They identified a leadership challenge in the Belarusian Popular Front (BPF),shortcomings in the UDF co-chairs, and concerns about party financing as internal and external factors slowing the work of the UDF. End summary. Multiple Delays on Road to Joint List -------------- ¶2. (C) Poloff and USAID Belarus Country Program Director held consultations November 14 with Andrew Olson, the head of IRI's Vilnius Office, and with David Hamilton of NDI's Kyiv Office (via telcon),to gauge the UDF's progress in preparations for 2008 parliamentary elections. Both were critical of the work of the co-chairs, and admitted that the UDF was far from its goal of a unified list of 110 opposition candidates for Belarus' 110 electoral districts. ¶3. (C) Olson said that he was disappointed by the leadership shown by the co-chairs during the November 4 Social March (ref E). In his view, modest participation in the march was proof that party leaders had failed to turn out their base. Olson said that the co-chairs had yet to determine a selection mechanism for candidates for the unified list, and that the co-chair responsible for formation of the candidate list, Anatoliy Levkovich of the Belarusian Social-Democratic Party-Gramada (BSDP-G),might be overmatched by the task. In a subsequent conversation, NDI's Hamilton emphatically agreed with this assessment of Levkovich. [Comment: We concur that Levkovich is a weak placeholder for party chair Aleksandr Kozulin who remains a political prisoner. End comment.] ¶4. (C) Both Olson and Hamilton confirmed that the ongoing leadership contest within the nationalist BPF made the remaining co-chairs reticent to make hard choices, lest they be forced to revisit them should new BPF leadership be elected. [Note: UDF co-chair for international relations and current BPF leader Vintsuk Vyachorka can not join the planned opposition delegation's visit to Washington (ref D) because of preparations for a BPF party congress (ref C) to be held in Minsk, December 8-9. At this congress, Vyachorka faces a tough leadership challenge from former associate Viktor Ivashkevich and a representative of the youth wing of the party, Ales Mikhalevich. End note.] Left/Right, Political Party/For Freedom Friction... -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Both implementers noted that traditional rivalries within the opposition remained and were hampering both the formation of a unified list and broader election planning efforts. Olson noted that friction between Sergey Kalyakin's Belarusian Party of Communists (BPC) and the nationalist BPF continued to bubble up in the regions. Hamilton criticized Kalyakin for this, noting that he had failed, as UDF co-chair for regional development, to suppress his communist lexicon for the sake of unity at regional events. Finally, both implementers noted the continuing fears of UDF officials that Aleksandr Milinkevich's "For Freedom" Movement would nominally abstain from the campaign nationwide, but that local "For Freedom" candidates would challenge the UDF's united list in some districts. Hamilton noted that USG implementers NDI, IRI and the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) presented a united message to both the UDF parties and "For Freedom" that the opposition should unite in support of a single nationwide list. And Financial Considerations Continue to Hinder Unity -------------- -------------- MINSK 00000976 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C) In addition to ideological friction, both implementers cited potential financial disincentives to local party organizations as an important obstacle to the formation of a unified candidate list. Local UDF party branches have obtained direct support from USG and European implementers and understandably fear that if regional and national coalitions are formed, financial support will be centered there. Moreover, some local UDF parties also worry that coalition formation could eliminate some European funding sources altogether, since center-left or center-right parties are prepared to support Social- Democratic or Christian Democratic candidates but might not support a broad-based opposition coalition. Solid Support for Unified List in Just Three Regions -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) NDI's Hamilton described region-by region progress made to date in coalition formation and the candidate selection process. The city of Minsk, Minsk region and Gomel region were the closest to agreement on broad-based participation in a coalition. In these regions all UDF parties, "For Freedom" and democratic NGOs were committed to a single slate and their regional leaders would meet in Kyiv December 1-3 to agree on a candidate selection process. Of the remaining regions, Hamilton explained that a coalition in Mogilyov was most likely and that one in Vitebsk was possible, if the egos of local leaders could be overcome. He held out little hope for a broad-based coalition in Brest region and almost none for Grodno region. Grodno's local "For Freedom" branch has rejected the possibility of participating in any coalition and has already identified seven of their own candidates, whom they intend to support whether or not they are part of the UDF's unified slate. You Can't Spell UDF Without D, Right? -------------- ¶8. (C) Hamilton also expressed concern that UDF leaders preferred drafting a list of candidates based on the agreement of party leaders rather than approval of a democratic selection mechanism. Hamilton argued that democratic candidate selection methods were important for the UDF not only for reasons of principle, but also because they could generate interest and support in the population for the eventual slate. [Note: When asked about progress on the unified slate at a recent diplomatic reception, UDF co-chair and leader of the United Civic Party Anatoliy Lebedko told Poloff that candidates had been selected for 90 per cent of Minsk's districts. He did not mention a primary or caucus mechanism for their selection. End Note.] Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) If completion of the unified slate slips to December 31 or later, as our UDF sources have stated (ref D),the UDF's chances for a successful parliamentary campaign next year could be at risk. Though the regime's intention to falsify the polls is all but assured, the 2008 campaign nevertheless offers the opposition their best chance in 2008 to approach the voters with an alternative vision for Belarus. Stewart