MESSAGE FOR BELARUSIAN OPPOSITION: UNITY, ACTION,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000968 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/2017 TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL BO SUBJECT: MESSAGE FOR BELARUSIAN OPPOSITION: UNITY, ACTION, FOCUS Ref: Minsk 875 Classified By: Ambassador Karen Stewart for reason 1.4 (d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) An opposition visit to Washington just weeks after the OFAC listing of Belarusian petrochemical giant Belneftekhim offers an ideal opportunity both to reconfirm USG support for the opposition and to express USG expectations for 2008. The opposition will no doubt take heart from a restatement of USG policy that bilateral relations with Belarus will improve only when all political prisoners are freed and basic human and democratic principles are respected. In addition, USG interlocutors can underscore the importance of unity in the opposition and of united opposition participation in 2008 parliamentary elections. Next year's parliamentary elections will be fatally flawed, but in a repressive environment such as in Belarus, the opposition must seize every opportunity to present their alternative vision of the country to the people. End summary. A Message of Support... -------------- ¶2. (C) The visit of leaders of Belarus' opposition -- including United Democratic Forces politicians, civil society leaders and former political prisoners -- presents a rare opportunity to express, at the highest levels, continued USG support to a group that faces repression daily. Long-term USG support for the opposition, and continued insistence on freedom for all of Belarus' political prisoners, is unlikely to be a novelty for our Belarusian opposition interlocutors, but will represent welcome reassurance all the same. Meetings and press opportunities may also present the possibility to restate the continued unity of USG and EU policy goals for Belarus. Encouragement... -------------- ¶3. (C) In addition to support, the visit presents an opportunity for encouragement. The opposition is by no means monolithic. Members of the opposition represent the full scope of political ideologies from the nationalist right to the communist left; moreover, they employ a variety of tactics from street protests to civil society organizing, to party politics. The European March (reftel) proved that opposition leaders can overcome ideological differences and differences on preferred tactics. Politicians and civil society activists, representing the left, right and center, marched together October 14 and the result was a successful demonstration, and a message to official Minsk, Brussels and the world that Belarusians believe in their country's European future. Unity works. and Expectations -------------- ¶4. (C) In addition to support and encouragement, this visit is a chance for the USG to share its expectations of the Belarusian opposition. The USG knows that the Lukashenko regime will frame the 2008 poll. That said, even flawed elections present the opposition its best chance to approach the citizens of Belarus with an alternative -- a Belarus beyond authoritarian dictatorship, with a European future and free-market economy. In an environment with so little space for dialogue, no opportunity can afford to be missed. An early boycott -- the idea has been mentioned by some in the opposition here -- proves nothing and only rewards the regime. Assuming that some opposition candidates succeed in being placed on the ballot, robust participation in the electoral process is key for all sectors of the opposition. ¶5. (C) Not only must the opposition actively participate in elections, but that participation must be unified as well. The United Democratic Forces are working to form a single slate of 110 opposition candidates for the 110 parliamentary districts in Belarus. This effort has the support of the USG and deserves the support and participation of all civil society leaders and Belarusians from all walks of life. The candidate selection process has been slow to date -- an initial, self-imposed deadline of November 15 has slipped to December 31 and may slip further -- and must accelerate for the opposition to best MINSK 00000968 002 OF 002 seize the full election cycle as an opportunity to engage the Belarusian people. Just as a boycott of these polls is unacceptable, civil society abstention from the election process, or the nomination of competing opposition candidates, supports the Lukashenko regime, and is a dangerous luxury the opposition cannot afford. Stewart