EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - November 23, 2007

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000967 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON ENRG BO SUBJECT: EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - November 23, 2007 ¶1. The following are brief items of interest compiled by Embassy Minsk. TABLE OF CONTENTS Civil Society -------------- - Polish Priest Faces Deportation (para. 2) - Activists Authorized to Mark Slutsk Uprising (para. 3) - Activist Wins Appeal in Supreme Court (para. 4) - Pro-Regime "Belaya Rus" Holds Founding Conference (para. 5) - Prosecutor General Denies Kozulin Appeal (para. 6) - Officials Report Demographic Decline (para. 7) Domestic Economy -------------- - Industrial Output Rises 8.2 Percent (para. 8) - GOB Fails to Meet Its Own Socio-Economic Targets (para. 9) International Trade -------------- - Trade Deficit in Goods Increases Again (para. 10) Quote of the Week (para. 11) -------------- -------------- Civil Society -------------- ¶2. Polish Priest Faces Deportation Gomel authorities ordered Rechitsa-based Polish Catholic priest Grzegorz Hudek to leave Belarus by December 1. Gomel regional religious officer Mikhail Zhukevich stated November 20 that "the case does not indicate any confrontation between the authorities and the denomination," but that the priest spoke negatively about Rechitsa in an interview though his main duty was "to spiritually revive the people." The decision represents a rejection of a personal appeal on Hudek's behalf by Kazimierz Cardinal Swiatek. Local Catholics have started collecting signatures to petition the authorities to allow the priest to stay. Hudek has served in Gomel region for over 14 years. ¶3. Activists Authorized to Mark Slutsk Uprising Minsk regional authorities November 20 granted permission to historical heritage preservation activists to hold commemorative events on November 24 to mark the anniversary of the 1920 Slutsk Anti-Bolshevik uprising. Authorities limited the number of people authorized to mark the occasion to 100. Plans include a visit to a private museum in Starye Dorogi to unveil a monument featuring an insurgent protecting a cross, an old Belarusian emblem, and a flag. The Slutsk uprising began November 1, 1920, though Soviet authorities fully suppressed it by the end of that year. ¶4. Activist Wins Appeal in Supreme Court Supreme Court Chairperson Valentin Sukalo November 19 annulled the decision of a Gomel district court that had fined opposition activist Sergey Semenov BYR 930,000 (USD 435) August 30 for his refusal to fill out a Russian-language customs declaration form while traveling to Ukraine. Semenov was charged a second time for a similar incident in September, but the Constitutional Court Chairperson involved in that case dismissed those charges, urging other judges to respect the Belarusian language and thoroughly assess related cases. ¶5. Pro-Regime "Belaya Rus" Holds Founding Conference The pro-regime national organization "Belaya Rus" (BR) held its founding conference November 17. 380 regional and Minsk delegates unanimously elected Education Minister Aleksandr Radkov BR's chairman. Radkov maintained BR would soon become the most "numerous public force" supporting presidential initiatives and GOB policies, and would take part in the 2008 parliamentary elections. He also noted that BR may become a political party in the future. The delegates ratified a founding charter and elected BR's National Council, which includes track and field champion Yuliya Nesterenko, State Television Network deputy head Yuriy Azaryonok, University rector Mikhail Baturo, and other leaders of state organizations. ¶6. Prosecutor General Denies Kozulin Appeal The Prosecutor General's Office November 19 denied political prisoner Aleksandr Kozulin's appeal challenging his five and a half year jail term. Kozulin's lawyer Dmitriy Goryachko protested the MINSK 00000967 002 OF 002 sentence and urged an end to criminal proceedings against Kozulin. The prosecutor's refusal of the appeal cited the legal grounds for his imprisonment. Kozulin's lawyers plan to request once again a meeting with the Chairman of the Supreme Court, though the court denied a previous request. Kozulin's lawyers also sent a complaint to the UN Human Rights Committee in October 2007. ¶7. Officials Report Demographic Decline The Ministry of Statistics and Analysis reported November 19 that Belarus' population decreased by 18,800 to 9,695,700 from January to September 2007, though statistics suggest some positive trends. The number of births rose by 6,000 in that period, while 3,800 fewer people died compared to the previous year. Infant mortality declined from 6.1 per 1,000 newborns in 2006 to 5.7 in 2007. Circulatory diseases caused the majority of deaths, while 2,127 people committed suicide. The number of divorces grew by 14.8 percent, while marriages were up only 7.1 percent. -------------- Domestic Economy -------------- ¶8. Industrial Output Rises 8.2 Percent Belarus' Statistics Ministry reported November 20 that the country's year-on-year industrial output grew 8.2 percent through October. The chemical and petrochemical sectors increased production by 10.9 percent. Profitability of 20 percent for these industries was above the industrial sector's average of 13.2 percent. The machine-building and metalworking sectors showed the largest output rise of 13.8 percent, while power, fuel and food industries declined 0.1 to 2.6 percent during the same period. ¶9. GOB Fails to Meet Its Own Socio-Economic Targets Belarus' Ministry of Economics announced November 19 that the GOB met only 13 of 19 goals set for the country's social and economic development this year. The country missed production targets for consumer goods, food, and agricultural products, failed to achieve a foreign trade surplus, and missed profitability targets in the industrial sector. Nevertheless, the Ministry asserts that production and investment in the country's key industries are stable and are developing successfully. -------------- International Trade -------------- ¶10. Trade Deficit in Goods Increases Again Belarus' Statistics Ministry reported November 18 that the country's trade deficit for goods in the January-September time period increased to USD 2.6 billion. The government links the growing deficit to a more than twofold increase in prices for imported Russian gas and a 21.4 percent rise in oil prices. Many of Belarus' exports declined sharply on the year. The country still has a trade surplus with the EU, though its deficit with Russia reached USD 5.3 billion. -------------- ¶11. Quote of the Week -------------- Columnist Victor Martinovich writing in non-state weekly "Belgazeta" on supposed Anti-American sentiment among the people of Belarus: "To hate America, you need to have a rank not lower than Deputy Minister. Common Belarusians have nothing to hate America for. [So, America] bombed Belgrade? Come on! How many of us have ever even been to Belgrade? Besides, Milosevic is not an epic hero of ours but an ideology trick pulled off by state TV." Stewart