EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - November 16, 2007

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 000950

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON ENRG BO
SUBJECT: EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - November 16, 2007

REF: MINSK 865


1. The following are brief items of interest compiled by Embassy
Minsk.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Civil Society
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- BPF Convention to Be Held in Minsk (para. 2)
- Apparent Neo-Nazis Disrupt Polish Embassy Reception (para. 3)
- GOB Bans Subscription to Major Russian Periodicals (para. 4)
- Prominent NGO Threatened with Eviction (para. 5)
- Activists Detained, Leaflets Confiscated (para. 6)
- Union of Leftist Parties Denied Registration Appeal (para. 7)
- Exit Stamps to Be Replaced by Database (para. 8)

International Relations
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- Swedish NGO Representative Banned Entry to Belarus (para. 9)

Domestic Economy
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- Business Climate Index Down (para. 10)
- Regime Waffles on Export of Foodstuffs (para. 11)

International Trade
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- Russian Bank Completes Purchase of Belarus Shares (para. 12)

Quote of the Week (para. 13)
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Civil Society
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2. BPF Convention to Be Held In Minsk

Belarusian Popular Front (BPF) Leader Vintsuk Vyachorka informed the
media November 13 that Minsk city authorities granted permission for
the BPF to hold a convention there December 8-9. Viktor
Ivashkevich, Deputy Chairman of the BPF had previously announced
that the group intended to hold the meeting on Minsk's October
Square should indoor facilities be denied. The party was compelled
to hold a meeting on Belarusian soil during 2007, or be in violation
of current laws governing political parties.


3. Apparent Neo-Nazis Disrupt Polish Embassy Reception

About ten youth attempted November 11 to disrupt a reception
organized by the Polish embassy in Minsk marking the country's
Independence Day. The young people chanted slogans and spat in the
direction of a Polish diplomat and a Polish-language magazine editor
in attendance. They dispersed after raising their arms in a
Nazi-style salute.


4. GOB Bans Subscription to Major Russian Periodicals

Belarus postal services provider and printed media distribution
monopoly Belpochta removed three popular Russian periodicals from
its 2008 subscription list. Belpochta official Irina Ostrovskaya
explained that the company has the right to choose periodicals based
on "economic expediency" and noted the number of Russian periodicals
available for subscription dropped from 8,328 in 2007 to 4,449 in

2008. The Information Ministry representative denied allegations of
censorship, though analysts believe the three papers --
"Kommersant," "Moskovskiy Komsomolets," and "Nezavisimaya Gazeta" --
were banned due to their critical reporting of President
Lukashenko's policies.


5. Prominent NGO Threatened with Eviction

Belarusian Society for the Preservation of Historical and Cultural
Heritage Chairman Anton Ostapovich informed the media November 9
that authorities threatened his NGO with eviction from its premises
in central Minsk. The state-run owner of the office building cited
rent arrears as the reason. The NGO signed a one-year lease on June
1, 2007 but the lessor unexpectedly raised the rent by 50 percent
one month later. Ostapovich maintained the NGO would pay off the
debt shortly and linked the eviction warrant to the NGO's efforts to
preserve historic architecture in Minsk's old town.


6. Activists Detained, Leaflets Confiscated

Police officers briefly detained two opposition activists, Vasiliy

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Polyakov and Igor Sluchek, in Gomel November 10. Police released
the activists after an hour of questioning, but confiscated 1,500
leaflets urging members of parliament to meet with constituents to
discuss social benefits cuts. Polyakov stated "authorities react
painfully to any manifestation of discontent with their policies"
and expressed doubt that the police would return the leaflets.


7. Union of Leftist Parties Denied Registration Appeal

The Supreme Court November 14 dismissed an appeal filed by the
Belarusian Party of Communists (BPC),Belarusian Women's Party
Nadzeya [Hope], and the Belarusian Social-Democratic Party Gramada
(BSDP-G) challenging a previous registration denial. The Supreme
Court judge maintained that registration paperwork was invalid since
Nadzeya was deregistered on October 1 (reftel). BPC Leader Sergey
Kalyakin countered that Nadzeya was liquidated after the Union held
its founding convention.


8. Exit Stamps to Be Replaced By Database

Dmitry Levchenko, Head of the Belarusian Interior Ministry's
Citizenship and Migration Department announced November 9 that
Belarus will abolish its exit stamp system. The system will be
replaced by an electronic database of individuals who are
temporarily denied travel abroad. Reasons for denial include having
access to state secrets, facing criminal prosecution, having
outstanding financial commitments and "a number of other
categories." The plan calls for all 59 border checkpoints to have
access to the database by year's end.

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International Relations
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9. Swedish NGO Representative Banned Entry to Belarus

Minsk airport border guards November 12 refused entry to Olof Palme
International Center representative Nataliya Alekseyeva.
Alekseyeva, who holds Russian and Swedish citizenship, was the only
person in the delegation denied entry and was given no explanation
for the decision. The delegation came to discuss a project on
assistance to drug and alcohol abusers in Gomel and Svetlogorsk.
Alekseyeva had visited Belarus many times previously without
incident.

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Domestic Economy
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10. Business Climate Index Down

Belarus' National Bank announced November 9 that the country's
business climate index (BCI) decreased from 28.8 percent in August
to 18.7 percent in September. The BCI measures the percentage of
business leaders who view the current and expected business climate
as positive, and is compiled by surveying CEOs of the country's two
thousand largest business entities. Domestic demand and net profits
slowed down over the month. Through November, CEOs surveyed
indicated they expect declines in production, demand and employment.



11. Regime Waffles on Export of Foodstuffs

Belarus' Agriculture Ministry announced November 9 that the
government has suspended all exports of pork in order to meet
domestic demand. In November, President Lukashenko called on
Belarusian agricultural concerns to increase milk and meat exports
in order to take advantage of a worldwide increase in the price of
foodstuffs and reduce the rising trade deficit. The export ban
reportedly will be lifted some time next year once domestic demand
is fully supplied.

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International Trade
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12. Russian Bank completes purchase of Belarus Shares

Russia's Vneshekonombank has completed the purchase of 100 percent
of the shares in Belarus' Belvneshekonombank (BelVEB). The Russian
company's share had previously been 54 percent. President Aleksandr
Lukashenko and Vneshekonombank CEO Vladimir Dmitriyev reached the
agreement to transfer 100 percent ownership of Belarus' sixth
largest bank in December 2006.

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13. Quote of the Week
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President Lukashenko during a motivational speech to his cabinet

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members:

"Unfortunately, I have the distinct impression that this current
government is getting bogged down. I would not like to have to
resort to rotating my staff, but you need to understand that your
job is not simply to draw up schedules and to write reports, but to
seriously exert effort so that society actually can see indications
of your activity."

Stewart