EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - November 16, 2007

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 000950 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON ENRG BO SUBJECT: EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - November 16, 2007 REF: MINSK 865 ¶1. The following are brief items of interest compiled by Embassy Minsk. TABLE OF CONTENTS Civil Society -------------- - BPF Convention to Be Held in Minsk (para. 2) - Apparent Neo-Nazis Disrupt Polish Embassy Reception (para. 3) - GOB Bans Subscription to Major Russian Periodicals (para. 4) - Prominent NGO Threatened with Eviction (para. 5) - Activists Detained, Leaflets Confiscated (para. 6) - Union of Leftist Parties Denied Registration Appeal (para. 7) - Exit Stamps to Be Replaced by Database (para. 8) International Relations -------------- - Swedish NGO Representative Banned Entry to Belarus (para. 9) Domestic Economy -------------- - Business Climate Index Down (para. 10) - Regime Waffles on Export of Foodstuffs (para. 11) International Trade -------------- - Russian Bank Completes Purchase of Belarus Shares (para. 12) Quote of the Week (para. 13) -------------- -------------- Civil Society -------------- ¶2. BPF Convention to Be Held In Minsk Belarusian Popular Front (BPF) Leader Vintsuk Vyachorka informed the media November 13 that Minsk city authorities granted permission for the BPF to hold a convention there December 8-9. Viktor Ivashkevich, Deputy Chairman of the BPF had previously announced that the group intended to hold the meeting on Minsk's October Square should indoor facilities be denied. The party was compelled to hold a meeting on Belarusian soil during 2007, or be in violation of current laws governing political parties. ¶3. Apparent Neo-Nazis Disrupt Polish Embassy Reception About ten youth attempted November 11 to disrupt a reception organized by the Polish embassy in Minsk marking the country's Independence Day. The young people chanted slogans and spat in the direction of a Polish diplomat and a Polish-language magazine editor in attendance. They dispersed after raising their arms in a Nazi-style salute. ¶4. GOB Bans Subscription to Major Russian Periodicals Belarus postal services provider and printed media distribution monopoly Belpochta removed three popular Russian periodicals from its 2008 subscription list. Belpochta official Irina Ostrovskaya explained that the company has the right to choose periodicals based on "economic expediency" and noted the number of Russian periodicals available for subscription dropped from 8,328 in 2007 to 4,449 in ¶2008. The Information Ministry representative denied allegations of censorship, though analysts believe the three papers -- "Kommersant," "Moskovskiy Komsomolets," and "Nezavisimaya Gazeta" -- were banned due to their critical reporting of President Lukashenko's policies. ¶5. Prominent NGO Threatened with Eviction Belarusian Society for the Preservation of Historical and Cultural Heritage Chairman Anton Ostapovich informed the media November 9 that authorities threatened his NGO with eviction from its premises in central Minsk. The state-run owner of the office building cited rent arrears as the reason. The NGO signed a one-year lease on June 1, 2007 but the lessor unexpectedly raised the rent by 50 percent one month later. Ostapovich maintained the NGO would pay off the debt shortly and linked the eviction warrant to the NGO's efforts to preserve historic architecture in Minsk's old town. ¶6. Activists Detained, Leaflets Confiscated Police officers briefly detained two opposition activists, Vasiliy MINSK 00000950 002 OF 003 Polyakov and Igor Sluchek, in Gomel November 10. Police released the activists after an hour of questioning, but confiscated 1,500 leaflets urging members of parliament to meet with constituents to discuss social benefits cuts. Polyakov stated "authorities react painfully to any manifestation of discontent with their policies" and expressed doubt that the police would return the leaflets. ¶7. Union of Leftist Parties Denied Registration Appeal The Supreme Court November 14 dismissed an appeal filed by the Belarusian Party of Communists (BPC),Belarusian Women's Party Nadzeya [Hope], and the Belarusian Social-Democratic Party Gramada (BSDP-G) challenging a previous registration denial. The Supreme Court judge maintained that registration paperwork was invalid since Nadzeya was deregistered on October 1 (reftel). BPC Leader Sergey Kalyakin countered that Nadzeya was liquidated after the Union held its founding convention. ¶8. Exit Stamps to Be Replaced By Database Dmitry Levchenko, Head of the Belarusian Interior Ministry's Citizenship and Migration Department announced November 9 that Belarus will abolish its exit stamp system. The system will be replaced by an electronic database of individuals who are temporarily denied travel abroad. Reasons for denial include having access to state secrets, facing criminal prosecution, having outstanding financial commitments and "a number of other categories." The plan calls for all 59 border checkpoints to have access to the database by year's end. -------------- International Relations -------------- ¶9. Swedish NGO Representative Banned Entry to Belarus Minsk airport border guards November 12 refused entry to Olof Palme International Center representative Nataliya Alekseyeva. Alekseyeva, who holds Russian and Swedish citizenship, was the only person in the delegation denied entry and was given no explanation for the decision. The delegation came to discuss a project on assistance to drug and alcohol abusers in Gomel and Svetlogorsk. Alekseyeva had visited Belarus many times previously without incident. -------------- Domestic Economy -------------- ¶10. Business Climate Index Down Belarus' National Bank announced November 9 that the country's business climate index (BCI) decreased from 28.8 percent in August to 18.7 percent in September. The BCI measures the percentage of business leaders who view the current and expected business climate as positive, and is compiled by surveying CEOs of the country's two thousand largest business entities. Domestic demand and net profits slowed down over the month. Through November, CEOs surveyed indicated they expect declines in production, demand and employment. ¶11. Regime Waffles on Export of Foodstuffs Belarus' Agriculture Ministry announced November 9 that the government has suspended all exports of pork in order to meet domestic demand. In November, President Lukashenko called on Belarusian agricultural concerns to increase milk and meat exports in order to take advantage of a worldwide increase in the price of foodstuffs and reduce the rising trade deficit. The export ban reportedly will be lifted some time next year once domestic demand is fully supplied. -------------- International Trade -------------- ¶12. Russian Bank completes purchase of Belarus Shares Russia's Vneshekonombank has completed the purchase of 100 percent of the shares in Belarus' Belvneshekonombank (BelVEB). The Russian company's share had previously been 54 percent. President Aleksandr Lukashenko and Vneshekonombank CEO Vladimir Dmitriyev reached the agreement to transfer 100 percent ownership of Belarus' sixth largest bank in December 2006. -------------- ¶13. Quote of the Week -------------- President Lukashenko during a motivational speech to his cabinet MINSK 00000950 003 OF 003 members: "Unfortunately, I have the distinct impression that this current government is getting bogged down. I would not like to have to resort to rotating my staff, but you need to understand that your job is not simply to draw up schedules and to write reports, but to seriously exert effort so that society actually can see indications of your activity." Stewart