REGIME FAILING TO DEAL WITH POPULATION DECLINE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000949 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2017 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL ELAB BO SUBJECT: REGIME FAILING TO DEAL WITH POPULATION DECLINE REF: MINSK 297 Classified By: Ambassador Karen Stewart for reason 1.4 (d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) A recent conference demonstrated that official Minsk recognizes that economic migration to Belarus could help counterbalance the country's significant natural population decline. Weak policies and modest goals for attracting workers from abroad suggest the GOB will continue to focus on well-known Soviet methods -- trying to raise the birth rate and fight high mortality rates. End summary. Minsk Recognizes Migration as Part of Demographic Shortfall -------------- -------------- ¶2. (U) At a November 14-15 conference in Minsk entitled "Migration Processes and Demographic Security" Belarusian researchers and officials noted the important role of migration in stabilizing Belarus' population. Tatyana Shemetovets, Deputy Head of Employment and Population Policy at the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection, said Belarus was the first CIS country to pass a law on demographic security including immigration provisions. Yelena Maslenkova, Senior Lecturer at the International Institute of Labor and Social Relations, predicted that by 2010 Belarus would have a shortage of workers. Lyudmila Tikhonova of Belarusian State University blamed emigration for existing labor shortages in specific sectors, including construction. Rhetoric to Retain Belarusians? -------------- ¶3. (U) Maslenkova cited survey research indicating most recent young Belarusian emigres were undecided over whether to stay abroad permanently or return to their homeland at some point. Rita Supranovich, a researcher at the Belarusian National Academy of Sciences, suggested policies to influence undecided young Belarusians to return or to stay in Belarus in the first place. Although she ran through a comprehensive list of helpful economic policies (e.g. "just wages"), Supranovich said that patriotism instilled through ideological work was not less important than financial incentives. ¶4. (U) Ilija Todorovic, Director of the Belarus UNHCR Office, asked Supranovich whether Belarus might consider recognizing dual citizenship in order to make it feasible for emigres to return to Belarus with their foreign spouses. Supranovich said this was worth considering, but the mid-level Interior Ministry officials present shook their heads dismissively. Very Modest Goals for Attracting Immigrants -------------- ¶5. (U) Shemetovets gave an overview of the GOB's national program for demographic security, which sets a goal of attracting 5,000 net migrants to Belarus a year. Natalya Privalova of the Economics Ministry's Economics Research Institute said that by 2020 Belarus stands to gain a net of 2,000-4,000 in population per year through migration. In large part the net increase will result from a decrease in emigration caused by an aging population. This increase will be a drop in the bucket, as by 2020 Belarus' population will have shrunk by 200,000 (ref). Comment: Failure to Get Migrants When the Getting Was Good -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) Todorovic rightly pointed out that, on the whole, Belarusians hold a tolerant attitude toward migrants. Post suspects this in large part corresponds to the relative scarcity of non-Slavic migrants (95 percent of migrants to Belarus come from Russia, Ukraine and Kazhakstan, with one-third ethnic Russians, one-third ethnic Belarusians and one-tenth ethnic Ukrainians). Despite the lack of racist attacks, there is little economic incentive for most migrants to come to Belarus. ¶7. (C) Belarus may have held some appeal to uprooted Slavs looking for stability in the 1990s, but currently opportunities for the enterprising are greater elsewhere. With the majority of money for demographic security going to stem natural decline, government policies to reverse emigration trends will have little to no economic impact. The national program on demographic security only includes budgetary spending to dampen the brain drain among MINSK 00000949 002 OF 002 scientists, and this line item amounts to just USD 60,000 a year. This stands in contrast to lavish promises to provide free housing to all families with five or more children. With even the GOB predicting slower growth in the years to come, post believes Belarus will find it even more difficult to break even in the migration equation. STEWART