REGIME FAILING TO DEAL WITH POPULATION DECLINE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000949

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL ELAB BO
SUBJECT: REGIME FAILING TO DEAL WITH POPULATION DECLINE

REF: MINSK 297

Classified By: Ambassador Karen Stewart for reason 1.4 (d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) A recent conference demonstrated that official Minsk
recognizes that economic migration to Belarus could help
counterbalance the country's significant natural population
decline. Weak policies and modest goals for attracting
workers from abroad suggest the GOB will continue to focus on
well-known Soviet methods -- trying to raise the birth rate
and fight high mortality rates. End summary.

Minsk Recognizes Migration as Part of Demographic Shortfall
-------------- --------------


2. (U) At a November 14-15 conference in Minsk entitled
"Migration Processes and Demographic Security" Belarusian
researchers and officials noted the important role of
migration in stabilizing Belarus' population. Tatyana
Shemetovets, Deputy Head of Employment and Population Policy
at the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection, said Belarus
was the first CIS country to pass a law on demographic
security including immigration provisions. Yelena
Maslenkova, Senior Lecturer at the International Institute of
Labor and Social Relations, predicted that by 2010 Belarus
would have a shortage of workers. Lyudmila Tikhonova of
Belarusian State University blamed emigration for existing
labor shortages in specific sectors, including construction.

Rhetoric to Retain Belarusians?
--------------


3. (U) Maslenkova cited survey research indicating most
recent young Belarusian emigres were undecided over whether
to stay abroad permanently or return to their homeland at
some point. Rita Supranovich, a researcher at the Belarusian
National Academy of Sciences, suggested policies to influence
undecided young Belarusians to return or to stay in Belarus
in the first place. Although she ran through a comprehensive
list of helpful economic policies (e.g. "just wages"),
Supranovich said that patriotism instilled through
ideological work was not less important than financial
incentives.


4. (U) Ilija Todorovic, Director of the Belarus UNHCR Office,
asked Supranovich whether Belarus might consider recognizing
dual citizenship in order to make it feasible for emigres to
return to Belarus with their foreign spouses. Supranovich
said this was worth considering, but the mid-level Interior
Ministry officials present shook their heads dismissively.

Very Modest Goals for Attracting Immigrants
--------------


5. (U) Shemetovets gave an overview of the GOB's national
program for demographic security, which sets a goal of
attracting 5,000 net migrants to Belarus a year. Natalya
Privalova of the Economics Ministry's Economics Research
Institute said that by 2020 Belarus stands to gain a net of
2,000-4,000 in population per year through migration. In
large part the net increase will result from a decrease in
emigration caused by an aging population. This increase will
be a drop in the bucket, as by 2020 Belarus' population will
have shrunk by 200,000 (ref).

Comment: Failure to Get Migrants When the Getting Was Good
-------------- --------------


6. (C) Todorovic rightly pointed out that, on the whole,
Belarusians hold a tolerant attitude toward migrants. Post
suspects this in large part corresponds to the relative
scarcity of non-Slavic migrants (95 percent of migrants to
Belarus come from Russia, Ukraine and Kazhakstan, with
one-third ethnic Russians, one-third ethnic Belarusians and
one-tenth ethnic Ukrainians). Despite the lack of racist
attacks, there is little economic incentive for most migrants
to come to Belarus.


7. (C) Belarus may have held some appeal to uprooted Slavs
looking for stability in the 1990s, but currently
opportunities for the enterprising are greater elsewhere.
With the majority of money for demographic security going to
stem natural decline, government policies to reverse
emigration trends will have little to no economic impact.
The national program on demographic security only includes
budgetary spending to dampen the brain drain among

MINSK 00000949 002 OF 002


scientists, and this line item amounts to just USD 60,000 a
year. This stands in contrast to lavish promises to provide
free housing to all families with five or more children.
With even the GOB predicting slower growth in the years to
come, post believes Belarus will find it even more difficult
to break even in the migration equation.
STEWART