EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - November 09, 2007

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 000929

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON ENRG BO
SUBJECT: EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - November 09, 2007



1. The following are brief items of interest compiled by Embassy
Minsk.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Civil Society
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- Opposition to Hold 1,500 Rallies in Mid-December (para. 2)
- Gomel District Court Upholds University Expulsion (para. 3)
- Christian Democracy Conference Held in Minsk (para. 4)
- Administration Violates Prisoner's Rights (para. 5)
- Activist's Son Assaulted in Vitebsk (para. 6)
- Registered HIV Cases on the Rise (para. 7)

International Relations
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- Belarus Expands Ties with South Korea (para. 8)
- Chinese Premier in Minsk (para. 9)

Domestic Economy
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- Official Unemployment Rate Declines (para. 10)
- Construction Sector Expands (para. 11)

International Trade
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- Credit Agreement with Deere Credit (para. 12)

- Quote of the Week (para. 13)

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Civil Society
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2. Opposition to Hold 1,500 Rallies in Mid-December

Opposition forces plan to hold 1,500 rallies nationwide on December
17, the day when a government-sponsored law cutting state benefits
comes into force. Sergey Kalyakin, leader of the Belarusian Party
of Communists, said that the opposition will continue its campaign
to compel lawmakers to meet with constituents to discuss the issue.
At least 300 eligible voters are required to sign a petition in
order to force a meeting between lawmakers and constituents, a goal
already reached in 12 electoral districts.


3. Gomel District Court Upholds University Expulsion

A judge in Gomel November 5 refused to hear an appeal filed by a
leader of the Belarusian Popular Front's youth wing regarding his
expulsion from Gomel State University. Dmitry Zhaleznichenka, a
third-year student of the university's mathematics department, was
expelled September 12 for "regular violations of the university's
internal rules," though supporters assert the expulsion was
politically motivated. Zhaleznichenka plans to appeal the ruling to
higher courts, prosecutor's offices and the State Control
Committee.


4. Christian Democracy Conference Held in Minsk

The Belarusian Popular Front held a conference November 6 in Minsk
marking 80 years since the founding of the Belarusian Christian
Democracy Party (BCD). Pavel Severinets, a co-chairman of the
founding committee for the reestablishment of the BCD, recalled the
history of the party, citing Nazi and Communist persecution as well
as the past executions of several prominent members of the party.


5. Administration Violates Prisoner's Rights

Political prisoner Andrey Klimov's mother received a letter from her
son on November 2 stating that prison administrators seized food
from a parcel she mailed him in early October. Human rights lawyer
Igor Rynkevich noted that it was "alarming news" since Klimov has
diabetes and a serious heart condition. Klimov's mother stated that
the lack of necessary food could "lead to grave consequences."
Klimov is serving a two-year prison sentence at a high security
facility in Mozyr on charges of advocating the overthrow of the
government.


6. Activist's Son Assaulted in Vitebsk

Vitebsk opposition activist Yan Derzhintsev informed the media
November 2 that his son Aleksandr was attacked and beaten up on his

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way home October 29. Derzhintsev maintained Aleksandr was likely
assaulted by members of the ultra-nationalist group Russian National
Unity (RNE). A number of opposition activists in Vitebsk have
received letters from RNE threatening punishment for their political
activities. Derzhintsev earlier complained about the letters to
authorities, but police claimed to be unable to find the authors
since RNE is an unregistered organization.


7. Registered HIV Cases on the Rise

The National Center of Hygiene, Epidemiology, and Public Health
informed the media November 5 that 8,557 residents of Belarus have
been diagnosed with HIV, with 810 new cases registered so far this
year. The majority of the infected are young people between 15 and
30 years of age. Over 65 percent of new cases this year were caused
by sexual contact. As of November 1, 2007, 127 children have tested
HIV-positive.

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International Relations
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8. Belarus Expands Ties with South Korea

Belarusian Prime Minister Sergey Sidorsky met with his counterpart,
Han Duk Soo, in South Korea on a two-day visit November 5 and 6.
The discussions resulted in several agreements including accords on
air service, cooperation in culture, visa-free travel for the
holders of diplomatic passports, and memoranda of understanding
between the customs departments of the two countries. The two
parties also discussed possibilities for the assembly of Hyundai
trucks in Belarus, joint production of medical equipment at the
Vitebsk-based Vityaz plant, and a USD 126 million project for the
production of the chemical paraxylene. Trade between Belarus and
South Korea increased by 95.2 percent year-on-year to USD 90.6
million in the first eight months of 2006. Belarusian exports rose
by 140 percent to USD 13.4 million and imports by 88.5 percent to
USD 77.2 million.


9. Chinese Premier in Minsk

President Lukashenko met November 5 with Wen Jiabao, the Premier of
the People's Republic of China. During the visit, China agreed to
extend a USD 530 million loan to Belarus to purchase three cement
production lines, as well as a USD 27 million soft loan. In
addition, the two sides signed an agreement on USD 2.7 million in
non-repayable aid to Belarus and letters of exchange for the Chinese
government to provide about USD 4 million for reconstruction of the
in-patient clinic of the Gomel regional cardiology hospital. China
is currently taking part in infrastructure development of Belarus'
third GSM operator BeST, financing the upgrade of Minsk-based power
cogeneration plant TETs-2, and will soon set up a joint venture in
Belarus to produce household appliances.

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Domestic Economy
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10. Official Unemployment Rate Declines

The Ministry of Statistics released a report November 2 citing a
decrease in the number of persons officially registered as
unemployed in Belarus. The official figure stands at 46,500 as of
October 1, 2007, or 1 percent of the economically active population,
down from 1.2 percent a year earlier. In January-August, 2007,
companies and organizations created 41,400 new jobs. According to
the Ministry, the average monthly unemployment benefit payout was
USD 21 in September.


11. Construction Sector Expands

Construction Minister Aleksandr Seleznev told the Presidium of the
Belarusian Council of Ministers November 6 that Belarus exported USD
71.2 million worth of construction services in the first nine months
of 2007, representing an export surplus of USD 41 million in the
sector. The export of building materials in the period totaled USD
326 million, 34 percent more than in the first nine months of 2006,
and exceeded imports by USD 150 million.

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International Trade
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12. Credit Agreement with Deere Credit

Belarusbank signed a credit agreement with Deere Credit providing

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financing for the purchase of over 70 John Deere tractors worth more
than USD 11 million. The deal makes Belarusbank the first bank in
Belarus to take a long-term loan from a U.S. financial institution.

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13. Quote of the Week
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Sergey Kalyakin, leader of the opposition Belarusian Party of
Communists (BPC),comparing the current situation of Belarusian
citizens with conditions before the October Revolution:

"The October Revolution is a great event for Belarus. People in
Belarus [now] are similarly deprived of many rights and are
similarly dissatisfied, but they don't know what to do while one man
is reigning supreme. However, people are awakening as was the case
in 1917."

Stewart