EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - November 02, 2007

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 000918

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON ENRG BO
SUBJECT: EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - November 02, 2007


1. The following are brief items of interest compiled by Embassy
Minsk.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Civil Society
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- Activists Mark Remembrance Day (para. 2)
- Police Seize Materials Ahead of Social March (para. 3)
- Opposition Youth Examined by Psychiatrists (para. 4)
- Authorities Ban Commemoration of Afghan War Victims (para. 5)
- Political Prisoners Facing New Criminal Charges (para. 6)
- Several Activists Receive Fines (para. 7)
- Market Vendors Barred from Protesting (para. 8)

Domestic Economy
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- Ministry Reports Stable Budget Implementation (para. 9)
- Ruble Down 4.6 Percent (para. 10)

International Trade
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- Foreign Investment, Trade Deficit Rise (para. 11)
- Russia May Supply Equipment for Nuclear Plant (para. 12)

- Quote of the Week (para. 13)

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Civil Society
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2. Activists Mark Remembrance Day

Hundreds of opposition youth and civil society activists marched
October 28 to the Kurapaty Stalin-era execution site to hold a
sanctioned demonstration marking Ancestors' Remembrance Day. The
demonstrators displayed nationalist white-red-white flags, Malady
Front banners, and signs calling for the release of political
prisoners Dmitry Dashkevich and Aleksandr Kozulin. Police vehicles
and plainclothesmen escorted and filmed the crowd on the way to
Kurapaty without interfering. Over 1,500 people gathered at the
site, prayed and dedicated a restored wooden cross that was
vandalized a few days before the commemoration. In Gomel, over 50
opposition activists also marked the day by staging an unauthorized
picket at a local execution site where they unveiled a memorial
stone to the martyrs of Belarus. Police closely monitored and
filmed the event, but did not interfere. In a separate incident,
police prevented opposition activists from traveling to the Grodno
region October 27 to commemorate the memory of prominent Belarusian
independence fighters Kastus and Viktor Kalinovsky. Police twice
detained activists for over four hours for allegedly speeding,
transporting illegal immigrants, and smuggling alcohol. Running
short of time, the group returned to Minsk.


3. Police Seize Materials Ahead of Social March

Police seized 5,000 leaflets and stickers October 30 publicizing the
Social March scheduled for November 4. Officers apprehended
Belarusian Popular Front (BPF) member Vatslav Oreshko at a bus stop
in central Minsk and detained him for three hours. Oreshko said the
officers guaranteed the return of materials after a check, but he
expressed doubt the materials would be returned before November 4,
asserting that police plan to prevent dissemination of Social March
information.


4. Opposition Youth Examined by Psychiatrists

Youth activist Andrey Tenyuta, facing criminal charges for allegedly
acting on behalf of the unregistered organization Malady Front (MF),
underwent a BKGB-mandated psychiatric examination at a Gomel clinic
October 25. Tenyuta spent eight hours at the hospital, and in
addition to the examination doctors inquired about his MF
activities. Test results will be released later. The BKGB refused
to return his computer and printed materials seized during a raid on
his apartment in early October.


5. Authorities Ban Commemoration of Afghan War Victims

October 31, Minsk city authorities denied permission to stage a
commemoration ceremony at a memorial to Soviet soldiers killed in
Afghanistan. Ceremony organizers, the Belarusian Popular Front
(BPF) and National Public Association of Afghanistan War Disabled
Veterans, intended to commemorate the occasion during an
anti-Communist forum to be held on November 3 at BPF headquarters.
They also planned to protest the upcoming International Communists
Conference and memorialize those who died in "the USSR's drive for
world domination." City authorities claimed the organizers violated

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the law governing procedures for mass events.


6. Political Prisoners Facing New Criminal Charges

Opposition youth group Malady Front (MF) leader Artur Finkevich,
currently serving a two-year khimiya sentence in Mogilev now faces
new criminal charges over unspecified violations of the terms of his
sentence. Finkevich, due to be released in mid-December, may now be
sentenced to up to three more years in jail. The new charges were
brought following Finkevich's fourth warning from the
administration. In a separate case, closed door hearings against
political prisoner Dmitry Dashkevich will take place November 6 in
the prison where he is currently held. Authorities opened a new
case against Dashkevich August 14, charging him of refusing to
testify as a witness in a criminal case against MF member Ivan
Shilo. The charges carry a penalty of up to three years in jail.


7. Several Activists Receive Fines

A Brest district judge October 30 fined opposition activist Roman
Kislyak 62,000 rubles (USD 29) on petty hooliganism charges. Police
briefly detained him after stopping Kislyak's car October 13
claiming he was engaged in a hit and run. He was released October
15 and charged with using obscenities in police officers' presence.
In a separate case, "For Freedom" movement activist Igor Lyalkov
received a fine of 930,000 rubles (USD 430) for organizing "a mass
event of an opposition nature" August 11. Lyalkov received the
ruling October 29 which cited his refusal to sign a document
acknowledging charges against him and failure to appear at his
October 10 court hearing. The activist argued he did not receive a
subpoena and will appeal the fine to a higher court.


8. Market Vendors Barred from Protesting

Police detained small business leader Sergey Parsyukevich and local
opposition activist Anatoly Shapovalov October 29 for an hour on
suspicion of car theft. Police officers stopped the demonstration
organizers as they were driving to a market vendors rally in
Vitebsk. Police stopped another opposition member, Kristofor
Zhelyapov, while he was driving from Minsk to Vitebsk, but released
him shortly thereafter without charges. Shapovalov walked to the
venue and informed about 20 market vendors already gathered at the
site that they should disperse as the authorities banned the rally.
This was the second denial of market vendors' applications to stage
protests.

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Domestic Economy
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9. Ministry Reports Stable Budget Implementation

Belarus' Finance Ministry announced October 29 that the country met
national budget revenue targets for January-September, although with
some difficulties. VAT, profit and excise tax revenues were higher
than expected. Social expenditures including healthcare, sports,
culture, education, and welfare exceeded USD 4.6 billion, or 43.1
percent of all expenditures. Finance Minister Nikolai Korbut
stressed the importance of tight control of targeted spending,
saving, and repayment of state loans.


10. Ruble Down 4.6 Percent

The National Bank of Belarus announced October 30 that the
Belarusian Ruble depreciated 4.6 percent in real terms during the
January-September time period. The Belarusian ruble depreciated 5.9
percent against the Russian ruble, 1.8 percent against the euro, 3.7
percent against the Ukrainian hryvna and appreciated 1.6 percent
against the dollar.

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International Trade
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11. Foreign Investment, Trade Deficit Rise

Belarus' Vice Premier Andrey Kobyakov announced October 26 that
foreign investment in Belarus totaled USD 2.3 billion for the
January-June time period, a 100 percent year-on-year increase.
Through August 2007 imports rose 24.8 percent while exports were up
18.3 percent. He reported a commodity trade deficit of USD 2.07
billion and a services trade surplus of USD 761 million. Kobyakov
cited higher energy costs and increased imports of non-food consumer
goods as the main reason fQSD0Cf`Qed to win a contract to supply

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equipment to Belarus' future nuclear power plant. Under an
agreement with Russia's Export-Import Bank signed in May 2007,
Belarus was offered exceptionally favorable conditions to import
Russian-made equipment. [Note: The GOB continues to explore several
options, including Russian, European and American suppliers for this
project. End note.]

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13. Quote of the Week
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Leonid Kovalyov, leader of the state-sponsored BRSM Belarusian
Republican Youth Union, espousing the government line on the Malady
Front:

"I don't particularly have anything against Malady Front. I just
don't understand how people who work to destabilize the country can
say that they care about youth. Let Malady Front prove through
their actions that they are capable of doing something useful for
youth."


Stewart