OPPOSITION CHRISTIAN DEMOCRAT BUILDS NEW PARTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 000894 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2017 TAGS: PGOV PHUM BO SUBJECT: OPPOSITION CHRISTIAN DEMOCRAT BUILDS NEW PARTY AFTER EUROPEAN MARCH REF: MINSK 875 Classified By: Ambassador Karen Stewart for reason 1.4 (d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) On October 19, DCM met with opposition party leader Pavel Severinets, who described an inter-generational rift within the opposition movement before, during, and following the October 14 European March. Severinets articulated his goal of transforming his newly-created Christian Democracy NGO into an opposition party but could not predict whether that party would take part in Belarus' 2008 parliamentary elections. End Summary. ¶2. (C) On October 19, DCM and Emboffs met with former political prisoner, opposition youth organization Malady Front (MF) founder, and Belarusian Christian Democracy (BCD) movement leader Pavel Severinets to discuss the October 14 European March (reftel). Though generally describing the march as a success, Severinets noted his regret that a group of opposition youth activists left the demonstration's main body. Recalling that GOB police prevented him from participating in the march (Severinets was under effective house arrest in Vitebsk),Severinets expressed disappointment at opposition "For Freedom" movement leader Aleksandr Milinkevich's decision not to hold the demonstration together because of his concern that authorities might regard him as the demonstration organizer. ¶3. (C) According to Severinets, the incident reflected widening discord between older opposition leaders and youth activists. Calling Milinkevich a "diplomat," Severinets' compared Milinkevich to Ukrainian President Yushchenko (in contrast to the more decisive Yulia Timoshenko). Severinets asserted that opposition forces needed to form a coordinating team composed of leaders who could exert more effective influence over activists during future demonstrations. Although Severinets lamented that authorities had prevented him from participating in the demonstration, he seemed reticent to assume such a coordinating role and reiterated BCD's support for Milinkevich. ¶4. (C) When DCM noted that many MF members favor street action over electoral participation and asked about BCD's participation in Belarus' 2008 parliamentary elections, Severinets indicated his organization remained divided on whether to boycott the elections. However, he noted that in Minsk, Mozyr, Novopolotsk, Baranovichi, and Brest BCD members expected to participate in the candidate selection process of the United Democratic Forces (UDF). He added that BCD was focusing on applying for legal registration and building its membership for its eventual transformation into a political party that focused on bringing Christians, particularly Protestants, into opposition politics. (Note: In September, Milinkevich told us that he fully supported BCD's transformation into a political party but stopped short of joining BCD. End note.) Comment -------------- ¶5. (C) Severinets' hesitance about coordinating BCD's parliamentary election campaign with the UDF national leadership reflects both his pragmatic loyalty to and ambivalence about Milinkevich -- as well as some degree of frustration with the major opposition parties. Whether BCD becomes a unifying element within opposition politics to a large extent will depend on Milinkevich's decision whether to coordinate his movement's electoral activities with the UDF. If BCD and Milinkevich coordinate with the UDF, BCD could play an important role in reuniting those opposition members who stayed with the European March and those who left. STEWART