HEALTHY TURNOUT FOR MINSK'S EUROPEAN MARCH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000875 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2017 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR BO SUBJECT: HEALTHY TURNOUT FOR MINSK'S EUROPEAN MARCH REF: A. Minsk 863 ¶B. Minsk 857 ¶C. Minsk 853 Classified By: DCM Jonathan Moore for reason 1.4 (d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) The Belarusian opposition gathered a diverse crowd of up to 6,000 for the October 14 European March, the largest mass demonstration since March 2006. While there were arrests before the march (refs B, C) the large security presence policing the protest demonstrated restraint. In a statement to the independent news agency Belapan, the Ambassador said she was pleased the authorities had not taken any aggressive action with demonstrators. In addition to the Ambassador, DCM, emboffs and several EU Chiefs of Mission observed the demonstration. End summary. Large, Diverse Crowd Marches for European Belarus -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) In spite of the detention of numerous organizers during the run-up to the protest, the Belarusian opposition's European March on October 14 was its largest mass demonstration since March 2006 protests of fraudulent presidential elections. According to estimates by emboffs, up to 6,000 protesters took part. (Note: State media and the Ministry of Internal Affairs estimated the crowd at 1,500, while opposition groups like Charter97 offered figures as high as 10,000. End note.) ¶3. (C) While young people continued to comprise the majority of the demonstrators, the European March included significantly higher numbers of older participants too, including some families and pensioners. The crowd was politically diverse as well, with elements from both the center-right and the center-left. The largest visible contingents at the march were Aleksandr Milinkevich's movement "For Freedom," the youth organization "Malady Front," political prisoner Aleksandr Kozulin's Belarusian Social Democratic Party-Gramada and the Belarusian Christian Democracy movement. Demonstrators Show Persistence; Police Show Restraint -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Demonstrators' tactics during the European March were both persistent and non-violent. Marchers, particularly those from "Malady Front," did not adhere to the authorities' restrictive march plans (ref A); in addition to the approved sites at the Belarusian Academy of Sciences and Bangalore Square, protesters rallied near October Square and partially blocked traffic, marching on Minsk's main thoroughfare, Independence Prospect. Some of those marching on Independence Prospect attempted to block the route of police cruisers with their bodies. While the police did clear their path, they also allowed these demonstrators to return to the march. ¶5. (C) The police adopted a lower profile than at past demonstrations. Uniformed traffic police were in the fore, paramilitary OMON riot police stayed out of sight, and Belarusian KGB remained on the sidelines in civilian clothing. Police also displayed a level of restraint not seen in previous demonstrations. Unsanctioned activities, like the rally near October Square and marching in city streets, did not lead to arrests or violence by police. Poloff contacted the Belarusian human rights NGO Vyasna October 15, and NGO representatives noted that they had no reports of arrests following the demonstration. State Media Dismissive of March -------------- ¶6. (C) In addition to the police presence, there was also a large amount of state media at the European March. These media frequently requested statements from U.S. and EU observers, attempting both to minimize the event and to portray foreign observers as march participants. In a statement to the independent press, the Ambassador greeted the support for a free and democratic Belarus that the European March displayed, adding that she was pleased that the authorities had not used force against the demonstrators. Comment MINSK 00000875 002 OF 002 -------------- ¶7. (C) In spite of the arrest of more than twenty activists and organizers in the days leading up to the event and the issuance of a restrictive permit for the demonstration, the opposition's European March was still a qualified success. Participation was higher than for any opposition protest since March 2006, and the fact that opposition groups from across the political spectrum participated showed the opposition's capacity for concerted action. That said, the demonstration, while sizeable, was segmented; "Malady Front" chose an autonomous path and did not join the larger group at the Academy of Sciences. The upcoming weeks -- and the November 4 Social March, which "For Freedom" plans to forego (ref C) -- will indicate whether the paths of the various opposition forces will diverge further. Stewart