HEALTHY TURNOUT FOR MINSK'S EUROPEAN MARCH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000875

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR BO
SUBJECT: HEALTHY TURNOUT FOR MINSK'S EUROPEAN MARCH

REF: A. Minsk 863


B. Minsk 857

C. Minsk 853

Classified By: DCM Jonathan Moore for reason 1.4 (d).

Summary
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1. (C) The Belarusian opposition gathered a diverse crowd
of up to 6,000 for the October 14 European March, the
largest mass demonstration since March 2006. While there
were arrests before the march (refs B, C) the large
security presence policing the protest demonstrated
restraint. In a statement to the independent news agency
Belapan, the Ambassador said she was pleased the
authorities had not taken any aggressive action with
demonstrators. In addition to the Ambassador, DCM, emboffs
and several EU Chiefs of Mission observed the
demonstration. End summary.

Large, Diverse Crowd Marches for European Belarus
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2. (C) In spite of the detention of numerous organizers
during the run-up to the protest, the Belarusian
opposition's European March on October 14 was its largest
mass demonstration since March 2006 protests of fraudulent
presidential elections. According to estimates by emboffs,
up to 6,000 protesters took part. (Note: State media and
the Ministry of Internal Affairs estimated the crowd at
1,500, while opposition groups like Charter97 offered
figures as high as 10,000. End note.)


3. (C) While young people continued to comprise the
majority of the demonstrators, the European March included
significantly higher numbers of older participants too,
including some families and pensioners. The crowd was
politically diverse as well, with elements from both the
center-right and the center-left. The largest visible
contingents at the march were Aleksandr Milinkevich's
movement "For Freedom," the youth organization "Malady
Front," political prisoner Aleksandr Kozulin's Belarusian
Social Democratic Party-Gramada and the Belarusian
Christian Democracy movement.

Demonstrators Show Persistence; Police Show Restraint
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4. (C) Demonstrators' tactics during the European March
were both persistent and non-violent. Marchers,
particularly those from "Malady Front," did not adhere to
the authorities' restrictive march plans (ref A); in
addition to the approved sites at the Belarusian Academy of
Sciences and Bangalore Square, protesters rallied near
October Square and partially blocked traffic, marching on
Minsk's main thoroughfare, Independence Prospect. Some of
those marching on Independence Prospect attempted to block
the route of police cruisers with their bodies. While the
police did clear their path, they also allowed these
demonstrators to return to the march.


5. (C) The police adopted a lower profile than at past
demonstrations. Uniformed traffic police were in the fore,
paramilitary OMON riot police stayed out of sight, and
Belarusian KGB remained on the sidelines in civilian
clothing. Police also displayed a level of restraint not
seen in previous demonstrations. Unsanctioned activities,
like the rally near October Square and marching in city
streets, did not lead to arrests or violence by police.
Poloff contacted the Belarusian human rights NGO Vyasna
October 15, and NGO representatives noted that they had no
reports of arrests following the demonstration.

State Media Dismissive of March
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6. (C) In addition to the police presence, there was also a
large amount of state media at the European March. These
media frequently requested statements from U.S. and EU
observers, attempting both to minimize the event and to
portray foreign observers as march participants. In a
statement to the independent press, the Ambassador greeted
the support for a free and democratic Belarus that the
European March displayed, adding that she was pleased that
the authorities had not used force against the
demonstrators.

Comment

MINSK 00000875 002 OF 002


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7. (C) In spite of the arrest of more than twenty activists
and organizers in the days leading up to the event and the
issuance of a restrictive permit for the demonstration, the
opposition's European March was still a qualified success.
Participation was higher than for any opposition protest
since March 2006, and the fact that opposition groups from
across the political spectrum participated showed the
opposition's capacity for concerted action. That said, the
demonstration, while sizeable, was segmented; "Malady
Front" chose an autonomous path and did not join the larger
group at the Academy of Sciences. The upcoming weeks --
and the November 4 Social March, which "For Freedom" plans
to forego (ref C) -- will indicate whether the paths of the
various opposition forces will diverge further.

Stewart