EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - October 12, 2007

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000863

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON ENRG BO
SUBJECT: EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - October 12, 2007



1. The following are brief items of interest compiled by Embassy
Minsk.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Civil Society
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- Authorities Permit March with Route Modification (para. 2)
- UCP Office Raided after OSCE Speech (para. 3)
- European March Organizer Sentenced to Jail (para. 4)
- Demonstrations Planned on Hunger Strike Anniversary (para. 5)
- Opposition Activist Sentenced to Jail (para. 6)
- Priest Warned against Services at Residence (para. 7)

Domestic Economy
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- Belarus' Gold and Currency Reserves Up (para. 8)
- Tax Authorities Promise to Cut Raids on Businesses (para. 9)

International Trade
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- Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan Plan Customs Union (para. 10)

- Quote of the Week (para. 11)

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Civil Society
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2. Authorities Permit March with Route Modification

The Minsk City Executive Committee granted permission for the
European March for Freedom to be held in Minsk on October 14, but
insisted on modifying the route. Authorities rejected the proposed
march along Minsk's main thoroughfare, instead insisting
participants take a secondary street, ending up in an isolated
public square.


3. UCP Office Raided after OSCE Speech

On October 5, KGB officers raided the Gomel office of the United
Civic Party (UCP),removing six computers and three copiers. The
raid came days after party member Leonid Sudalenko delivered a
speech at an OSCE-sponsored conference in Warsaw. The KGB officers
who raided the office explained that the search was part of an
investigation against suspects charged with acting on behalf of the
unregistered organization Malady Front.


4. European March Organizer Sentenced to Jail

After an October 9 closed-door hearing with no defense lawyers, a
Minsk District Court sentenced Yawhen Afnahel to 10 days in jail on
obscenities charges. Police arrested Afnahel after he and other
European March organizers left a meeting with representatives of the
Minsk City Executive Committee on October 8.


5. Demonstrations Planned on Hunger Strike Anniversary

Social Democrats have filed applications with the Minsk government
for permission to conduct pickets on October 24 to demand the
release of jailed leader Aleksandr Kozulin. Members of the
Belarusian Social Democratic Party Gramada (BSDP) and the
unregistered group Young Social Democrats/Young Gramada plan the
demonstration to coincide with the first anniversary of the
beginning of Kozulin's 53-day hunger strike.


6. Opposition Activist Sentenced to Jail

A district judge in Gomel on October 9 sentenced Vladimir Katsora,
deputy chairman of the United Civic Party (UCP) regional branch, to
seven days in jail for using obscene language in a public place.
Traffic police stopped the car that Katsora and another UCP
activist, Andrey Tolchyn were driving on the pretext that there was
a problem with the vehicle's plates. Police claimed he used abusive
language towards them during the stop. Mr. Katsora linked his
arrest to the forthcoming visit of EU diplomats to Gomel and the
upcoming European March.


7. Priest Warned against Services at Residence

On October 10, local police warned Dmitry Padlobka, priest of the
Living Faith Protestant community based in Gomel, against conducting
prayer services at his residence. The warning was based on a
complaint by the deputy head ideological officer of the city
executive committee, who said that the 100-strong community
regularly held religious worship in the private residence, violating
the local housing code. Earlier, officials tried to break up a

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service at the house, but left after the priest refused to halt the
service.

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Domestic Economy
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8. Belarus' Gold and Currency Reserves Up

According to the National Bank of Belarus, the country's hard
currency and gold reserves rose 55.8 percent in January-September to
USD 2.1 billion. This follows a 6.7 percent rise in 2006.
President Lukashenko's stated plan is to increase currency and gold
reserves to USD 6 billion by 2010.


9. Tax Authorities Promise to Cut Raids on Businesses

Deputy Tax Minister Vasil Kamenka stated on October 10 that his
ministry plans to cut the number of its raids on businesses. Tax
authorities conducted over 54,000 raids on companies and sole
entrepreneurs from January through September, resulting in USD 65
million in back tax payments and penalties. In what he described as
the most effective method to detect illegal business activity, tax
officers often pose as customers and buy goods from suspected
vendors, allowing authorities to seize USD 3.7 million worth of
goods from businesses in the first nine months of this year.

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International Trade
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10. Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan Plan Customs Union

Leaders of Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan met on October 6 in
Dushanbe at a regular summit of the Eurasian Economic Community and
signed agreements to begin work towards the establishment of a
customs union. Discussions are still in the planning stage, and no
deadline has been set for the conclusion of talks. Kyrgyzstan,
Tajikistan and Uzbekistan may eventually join the union.

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11. Quote of the Week
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Belarusian Education Minister Aleksandr Radkov, on why he refused to
grant permission for a program offering Belarusian high school
students an opportunity to study in the United States for a whole
academic year:

"We do not recommend academic exchange programs for our students.
Students should receive basic education in their own countries. If
I give my permission, I'm responsible for the quality of their
training, but I cannot ensure this in another country."

Stewart