BELARUSIAN OPPOSITION: SEVERAL PATHS, ONE GOAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000853 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/09/2017 TAGS: PGOV PINR PHUM BO SUBJECT: BELARUSIAN OPPOSITION: SEVERAL PATHS, ONE GOAL REF: A. MINSK 262 ¶B. MINSK 347 ¶C. MINSK 846 Classified By: ADCM Jonathan Moore for reason 1.4 (d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Belarusian opposition leaders expressed confidence for a large turnout at the October 14 demonstration in favor of European values and asked for international support. Differences of opinion over a second demonstration planned for November suggest it may not fare as well. The four main constituent parties in the democratic coalition said plans for the 2008 parliamentary elections would move forward, but former presidential candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich could not wholeheartedly support their efforts. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) This cable draws from two October 5 meetings, which were held at the request of opposition leadership in advance of the European March planned for October 14. The first included United Democratic Forces (UDF) Co-Chairs Vintsuk Vyachorka, Anatoliy Lebedko and Anatoliy Levkovich, Yelena Skrigan filling in for Co-Chair Sergey Kalyakin, Charge and Emboffs. In the second meeting Charge and Emboffs met with "For Freedom" (FF) movement Chair Aleksandr Milinkevich. ¶3. (C) In both meetings, Charge noted that the USG was maintaining firm pressure on the Belarusian regime, with the release of all political prisoners being the highest priority. The Charge also noted that the expanded travel restrictions were already having a concrete effect, notably on the directors and deputy directors of state enterprises, and noted that future economic sanctions directed towards large state-owned enterprises were being prepared in Washington. In both meetings, the Belarusians praised the USG's consistent approach. European March Requires Strong International Signal -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Vyachorka gave an overview of preparations for the European March, planned for October 14. He said authorities had still failed to respond to the organizers' request for permission to gather on October Square. Meanwhile, security services were trying to keep the turnout low through such methods as detaining organizers and forcing university administrators to collect signatures from students promising not to participate in the action. Milinkevich stated that the event would attract a strong turnout, although he declined to make a prediction as to how many Belarusians would take part. He called for demonstrators to meet on October Square even if authorities did not grant permission. ¶5. (C) Vyachorka believed the arrest and release of organizers Viktor Ivashkevich and Valeriy Ukhlyanov showed divisions in the regime on how to handle the protest. Europeans and the USG should warn authorities against human rights violations during the march, Vyachorka said. ¶6. (C) All opposition leaders thanked the USG for its steadfast support. Milinkevich worried that the recent decision of the Council of Europe's Special Rapporteur for Belarus to engage Belarusian authorities with no preconditions would send the wrong signal to Minsk. Milinkevich Defends Decision to Skip Social March -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) Lebedko stressed that the European March represented just one part of an overall action plan. Through the European March the opposition hopes to mobilize those who already oppose the regime. With the Social March in November the coalition seeks to broaden its appeal and activate another segment of society. Authorities had already taken action against the Social March as well, confiscating copies of the independent newspaper "Tovarishch" in which information about the campaign appeared, and trying to intimidate organizers throughout the country, according to Skrigan. ¶8. (C) Milinkevich explained that he could not join in an event criticizing Lukashenko for removing social benefits from a majority of the population. Such an action implied the opposition would restore benefits, when that was not a good course of action economically, he said. Milinkevich added that people did not yet feel the loss of benefits. When pressed by Charge, Milinkevich acknowledged that some MINSK 00000853 002 OF 002 Social March participants would be complaining about overall economic hardships rather than just about benefit cuts, but he remained uninterested in taking part. Election Preparations Moving Forward -------------- ¶9. (C) Levkovich admitted that the procedures for selecting a single opposition candidate in the regions were still under development. He said several "VIPs," including Malady Front activist Boris Goretskiy and Vitebsk activist Olga Karach, signed on to the UDF's single candidate selection procedures even though they did not belong to a party that accepted the agreement. However, some politicians within the UDF, including Stanislav Shushkevich, still threatened to run outside of the coalition's process. Milinkevich Neither In nor Out of the Coalition -------------- -- ¶10. (C) Vyachorka commented that all segments of the coalition were working well together on the European March. The key, he said, was to reach the same unity in work on the elections. Lebedko regretted that Aleksandr Milinkevich had to decline the invitation to meet Charge together with the UDF co-chairs. (Note: Charge explained that Milinkevich had business out of town earlier in the day, but would come to a later meeting. End note.) Lebedko expressed frustration that Milinkevich remained with the coalition formally while at the same time FF discounted the wisdom of participating in the 2008 parliamentary elections. ¶11. (C) Lebedko repeated longstanding claims from the political parties that the Belarusian Association of Resource Centers served as de facto independent funding for Milinkevich. This and other funding not directed to the coalition undermined attempts to forge unity, Lebedko said. For his part, Milinkevich only requested that the USG work to convince European partners to begin funding unregistered civil society groups in Belarus directly. ¶12. (C) Milinkevich offered that many FF members would compete in parliamentary elections, but in their capacity as political party members. FF itself would work to try to get its supporters on local electoral commissions. He suggested that if authorities ignored FF's calls for fairer elections, he would support opposition candidates dropping out of the campaign two to three days before polling took place. Such a move would require the opposition to explain its move to the public, Milinkevich added. Comment: Can the Leaders Cooperate to Broaden Their Appeal? -------------- -------------- ¶13. (C) The European March promises to rival protests in the spring (refs A and B) for the largest pro-democracy protest of the year. In contrast, Lebedko's mention of limited resources for the Social March -- combined with his usual complaints about the resource centers -- gave post a preview of a possible future effort to blame low turnout for the November event on lack of support from the relatively flush Milinkevich camp. ¶14. (C) We cannot pretend that the UDF is a monolithic bloc. It remains true that while the leaders of the opposition differ in resources, methods, and personality, they are still committed to a democratic future. In particular, Milinkevich, who had somewhat petulantly refused an earlier invitation to travel to Washington with his opposition colleagues -- stated somewhat sheepishly that if he is invited again he would try to take part. In general, he seemed somewhat more subdued and less confident than in previous meetings. That level of acquiescence may help rebuild some of the burnt bridges between him and others. ¶15. (C) Sounding a broad and positive note, Milinkevich said he sensed increased public disillusionment with the regime, something public opinion surveys also suggest (ref C). He forthrightly noted the public still did not trust the opposition, but he felt optimistic. If the European March indeed helps energize the pro-democratic base of supporters it would be a shame if the parties and FF do not find a way to cooperate on elections to reach out to bread-and-butter voters. STEWART