BELAYA RUS-IFICATION OF PARTY POLITICS?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000805 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/19/2017 TAGS: PGOV PINR BO SUBJECT: BELAYA RUS-IFICATION OF PARTY POLITICS? REF: MINSK 796 Classified By: Charge Jonathan Moore for reason 1.4 (d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Belaya Rus, a group created two years ago to support Aleksandr Lukashenko, may soon formalize its status as a national social organization. Most likely, Belaya Rus will provide pro-presidential local election commission members and monitors for the 2008 parliamentary vote. Members of Belaya Rus will also likely run for office whether or not Belaya Rus morphs into a political party. Some commentators suggest the organization fits into a larger presidential plan to introduce proportional representation in Belarus. Post suspects Viktor Lukashenko will push for a more active role for Belaya Rus, while his father may proceed cautiously. End summary. A New Organization Picks Up Momentum -------------- ¶2. (C) Belaya Rus was founded as a regional NGO -- in fact a governmental-NGO -- in Grodno oblast in 2005. After years of dormancy, this summer witnessed the registration of regional branches throughout Belarus. MP Viktor Guminskiy, head of Belaya Rus' newly formed Minsk oblast organization, claimed to Acting Pol/Econ Chief and Poloff that Belaya Rus would now begin to set up branches at large factories. MPs and members of the initiative group to found Belaya Rus Aleksandr Shatko and Aleksandr Yushkevich told Acting Pol/Econ Chief and Poloff the founding convention to create a nationwide Belaya Rus organization would occur by the end of October. Is It an NGO? -------------- ¶3. (C) Guminskiy said Belaya Rus would work from the ground up to promote the goals set forth at the Third All-Belarusian Assembly in 2006. (Note: The Presidential Administration organizes attendance at the assemblies, which then "vote" nearly unanimously for a pro-Lukashenko agenda. End note.) Yushkevich more bluntly described Belaya Rus's primary goal as "support for the president and a strong government." Guminskiy explained funding for Belaya Rus would come from membership dues and commercial activities. Will It Participate in Organizing Elections? -------------- ¶4. (C) Central Election Commission Chair Lidiya Yermoshina told reporters on July 6 that "visible" people already belonged to Belaya Rus and "any authoritative person who already had a position in government and society would influence political processes, including elections." Guminskiy said Belaya Rus would not focus exclusively on elections, but the organization would become so influential it could not sit by idly during campaigns. Its charter allows for participation in elections through providing members for local electoral commissions and as observers. Shatko characterized participants in Belaya Rus as pillars of the community who would naturally take part in politics. Strategy think tank analyst Valeriy Karbalevich told Acting Pol/Econ Chief that if Belaya Rus became a mass organization, authorities could select monitors on the basis of organization size, thus further reducing the ability of independent NGOs to monitor elections. Will It Become a Party? -------------- ¶5. (C) All three MPs stressed that for the time being Belaya Rus was not a political party. However, Guminskiy said one day Belaya Rus could help improve relations between Minsk and Moscow by talking to its closest Russian counterpart, United Russia. Shatko said the type of people targeted for membership in Belaya Rus would make good parliamentarians. Yushkevich added that Belaya Rus members would likely attract support from constituents should they run for office. However, Aleksandr Potupa, Head of the Belarusian Entrepreneurs Union, told Acting Pol/Econ Chief Lukashenko remained skeptical of turning Belaya Rus into a party because the dictator dislikes parties in general. Would a Proportional Representation System Follow? -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) Karbalevich suggested Lukashenko plans to change the MINSK 00000805 002 OF 002 electoral system from the present winner take all system to a proportional representation system. Regional party activists in both Grodno and Mogilev oblast mentioned this possibility as well. Former Presidential Administration official Aleksandr Feduta argued persuasively at the recent Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies conference (reftel) that Lukashenko would consider making Belaya Rus the party of power, although he said proportional representation was not strictly necessary. He offered that Lukashenko might forgo the complicated process of introducing a proportional representation system in order to call early elections. Whose Baby Is Belaya Rus? -------------- ¶7. (C) Each of the founding members tried to keep up the facade that Belaya Rus represents grassroots supporters, but we found them unconvincing. Independent observers agree the Presidential Administration supports Belaya Rus. Shatko and Yushkevich admitted that the issue of who would head Belaya Rus remains an outstanding issue to resolve before the national founding conference. Comment: Viktor on the Move, but will Batka Listen? -------------- -------------- ¶8. (C) Viktor Lukashenko is widely credited -- or despised -- for establishing the Belarusian Republican Youth Union (BRSM),a pro-Lukashenko re-creation of the Komsomol. Whatever its shortcomings from the regime's perspective, the BRSM brand easily outstrips that of any other social organization in Belarus for name recognition. Viktor's experience with BRSM makes him the most likely person lobbying Lukashenko to push forward with Belaya Rus. ¶9. (C) Even given the high level of esteem in which Lukashenko holds his oldest son, it is interesting that the ruler is considering creating a new political party given his iron grip on elections already. Guminsky mentioned the energy conflict with Russia demanded a social response. The youth-oriented BRSM sees its main task as convincing students how good they have it. Most likely Belaya Rus, whether or not it becomes a party, will also focus on mobilizing public opinion in favor of the regime regardless of economic challenges and across broader swaths of Belarusian society. Moore