A STIFF LUKASHENKO SENDS A MELANCHOLIC NEW YEAR'S MESSAGE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000008

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON PHUM BO
SUBJECT: A STIFF LUKASHENKO SENDS A MELANCHOLIC NEW YEAR'S MESSAGE

REF: MINSK 003

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Summary
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1. (SBU) An exhausted-looking Lukashenko on December 31 delivered
his yearly New Year's address to Belarusians before the stroke of
midnight. Standing stiffly next to a fireplace mantle and eyes
noticeably shifting to the teleprompter behind the camera,
Lukashenko slowly, without his infamous "charisma" or emotional
outbursts, gave a politically charged New Year's greetings. The
president lamented the pressures Belarus faces from the West and
countries that were supposed to be friends [i.e., Russia]. He
warned listeners that the road to prosperity would be rough, but
lauded Belarus' 2006 economic accomplishments and predicted that
the country would accomplish more in 2007. End summary.

Bread Does Not Come Easy
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2. (U) Lukashenko said that the New Year brought sadness and
happiness. Sadness because precious days of our lives are behind
us, and happiness because the future holds new hope and
expectations. However, "bread did not come easy" for Belarusians
in 2006 and the same could be expected for 2007. According to
Lukashenko, 2006 was a "tense" and "complicated" year for Belarus.
Although Belarus wanted to focus on the economy and social welfare,
outside and inside forces exerted massive internal and external
pressure during the presidential elections. However, efforts to
"rock" the country failed, because the "wise" Belarusian people
voiced their choice clearly and with resolve.

How Could Our Friends [Russia] Do This!
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3. (U) The president noted that "once again" Belarus was threatened
with economic sanctions and isolation, because other countries did
not want Belarus to become fully independent and self-sufficient.
Pressure from Western countries was no surprise, but anti-
Belarusian attitudes among friends of Belarus [i.e., Russia] raised
concern. Belarus' "friends" violated earlier agreements made with
Belarus, striking a serious blow to their "age-old" friendship with
Belarus. Lukashenko warned that Belarus' policies of a peaceful
world outlook, sovereignty, and social welfare would not be
sacrificed in the face of threats and pressure. According to the
president, it was obvious that "friendly" neighbors had forgotten
the old Russian saying "God is not in power, but in the truth."

New Years a Good Time To Discuss Five-Year Plans and GDP
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4. (U) Lukashenko reassured his listeners that 2006 was a
successful year, because Belarus met its economic, social, and
cultural goals, fulfilled the "intensive" missions of the first
year of the new five-year plan, and increased reserves for the
future. Gross domestic product growth dubled that of the world
average and Belarus expaded its geopolitical ties in all
continents, becoing a vanguard in the international wars on
trafficking in persons and drugs, and other crimes.

No One Can Protect Us But Ourselves
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5. (U) Lukashenko noted the lessons learned in 2006, primarily that
no one but Belarusians cares for the welfare of the Belarusian
government and people. The country's welfare depends on
Belarusian's hard work, cultural activeness, unity, and willingness
to love and protect the Fatherland. Belarusians must value peace
and stability and have faith in the future; things other
governments can only dream about. Bearusians must stand up for
the nation's interest just as their ancestors did during tough
times n history.

No Roses On Belarus' Path
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6. (U) The president admitted tat his speech may not be in the
holiday spirit, ut he was "used" to speaking "openly" and
"honestly" to the people. He warned that a thorny and complex
path, not one "draped in roses" lay ahead of Belarus. Belarusians
must be prepared to make extraordinary and complicated decisions in
order to stave off those who wish to receive "tasty morsels" of
Belarusian property for free using economic and political tools.
In order to make Belarus a strong and flourishing nation, citizens
must rely only on themselves, their hands, intelligence, and
persistence. "Wealth does not fall from the Heavens."


7. (U) Lukashenko explained that economic conditions must correlate

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with reality. Belarusians have to live and work with zeal and
caution and develop the new "economic knowledge" that includes
modern technology and large efficient production. New economic
conditions would strengthen Belarus' sovereignty and preserve
Belarusians' comfortable, clean and beautiful country for the
future generations.

Do Not Buck the System
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8. (U) Lukashenko warned Belarusians not to allow dissent,
disorder, and confusion to flourish in the country. "Destroyed is
that home and killed is that government which is splintered from
the inside." According to the president, Belarus' strength comes
from unity, agreement, and each citizen's desire to aid in the
country's development. Belarusians can be sure that their
government will do everything to provide them a suitable life.

Birth Rates A Sign
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9. (U) Lukashenko predicted that 2007 would be a good year because
2006 witnessed an increase in birth rates, the first such increase
in a decade. This indicated that Belarusian women were confident
in Belarus' future.

Finally, New Year's Wishes
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10. (U) Finally, Lukashenko wished Belarusians all the happiness,
good health, energy and success that life can offer. He wished for
the New Year to fill each house with children's laughter and wealth
and asked Belarusians to take care of their family and friends and
show each other happiness, kindness, and love.

Past Happy New Year's Addresses Not So Happy
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11. (U) Lukashenko's past New Year's addresses have always been
filled with strong political statements and quirky phrases. Below
are examples:

1996: "We will create a democratic, social oriented government,
perfect the economy and spiritual sphere in order to satisfy the
material and cultural needs of the citizen."

1997: "Belarusian territory did not turn into an arena of conflict
and fights. A decisive step was taken towards stability,
tranquility, and continuing democracy and away from anarchy and
chaos."

1999: ". a year of strengthening and developing the integration
processes.[and] coming together of two brotherly peoples
[Belarusians and Russians]."

2000: "This year was a difficult one for our country, especially
for agriculture. But the peasants stood their ground! We bow to
you for saving the harvest."

2001: ". social-economic stability in society is considered by our
foreign partners as a great accomplishment."

2002: "This year we built new metro stations, modernized the
Berezovskiy hydroelectric station, extended gas lines to Polyessa,
Minshin, and homes of Chernobyl victims."

2004: "We completed gas lines to Polyessa. In a few years we
fulfilled promises that the Soviet Union made 30 years ago."

Comment
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12. (SBU) Lukashenko's tired appearance is probably attributed to
the then-ongoing gas negotiations with Russia that ended two
minutes before the New Year (reftel). His indirect references to
Russia highlighted his anger and signaled what has recently been an
obvious change in GOB relations with the "brotherly" nation.
Although melancholic compared to the holiday greetings from Russian
President Putin an hour before, the content of Lukashenko's address
surprised few of his listeners.

MOORE