MOGILYOV OFFICIALS PLAY NICE, REQUEST ASSISTANCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000799

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/19/2017
TAGS: PGOV ECON PHUM BO
SUBJECT: MOGILYOV OFFICIALS PLAY NICE, REQUEST ASSISTANCE

REF: A. MINSK 733

B. MINSK 754

C. MINSK 724

D. MINSK 780

Classified By: Charge Jonathan Moore for reason 1.4 (d).

Summary
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1. (SBU) Poloffs recently traveled to two cities in Belarus'
Mogilyov region to survey the local political and economic
landscape. The regional authorities emphasized stability and
were generally optimistic about the region's development, at
the same time taking every opportunity to solicit monetary
support for various local institutions. End summary.

Officials Paint Picture of Prosperity and Stability...
-------------- --------------


2. (SBU) Poloffs recently traveled to Belarus' Mogilyov
region to discuss the local political-economic situation with
GOB and opposition politicians. On September 5, members of
the Krasnopolye District Executive Committee (Rayispolkom)
described a fairly optimistic outlook for their regions,
highlighting the area's stability and medical care.
Rayispolkom Chair Aleksandr Vetoshkin touted the region's
unemployment rate of two percent and lack of anti-social
elements. According to Vetoshkin, the recent conflicts
between the GOB and Gazprom over energy prices had no
significant effect on his district's mainly agrarian economy,
since it relies little on mechanization. When asked about
Krasnopolye being one of the possible sites for a future
nuclear power plant, Vetoshkin replied that the community
would welcome the influx of new jobs, despite the serious
effect the Chernobyl accident had on the area.

... While Others More Candid...
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3. (SBU) Later in the day, Poloffs visited the
fully-Swiss-owned KrasDev wood processing plant, which
processes raw timber into wooden beams for residential
construction. According to the manager, the Swiss concern
decided to locate the factory in Krasnopolye because 70
percent of the region is covered with forest.


4. (C) The manager described very candidly a situation
somewhat divergent from the official story promulgated
earlier by the Rayispolkom representatives, describing an
onerous 20 percent tax rate, the recent Gazprom-induced 46
percent increase in energy costs, and the fact that local
support for the plant was based on the "exceptionally high
unemployment" there. Poloffs noted an overabundance of
manual laborers -- only about ten of the 25 or so workers
gathered there appeared to be fulfilling a function -- and,
except for the saw cutting through the timber, there was an
almost total lack of mechanization.

...And Request USG Monetary Assistance
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5. (SBU) Poloffs visited several local institutions in the
city of Mogilyov, including two libraries, the local history
museum, and an elementary school for musical arts. At every
visit, directors made appeals for funding assistance from the
U.S. Government. The director of one library requested
assistance in obtaining American literature, either in
Russian or English. The director of the museum requested
additional funding to expand the exhibit there that was
established with an earlier U.S. grant. After an extremely
lavish and impressive set of performances by students, the
director of the performing arts school requested funds for
the procurement of new musical instruments. The deputy head
of the Mogilyov City Rayispolkom, Fyodor Karpovich, requested
help encouraging American investment and for establishing
sister city ties.

Dissidents Complain about the Opposition "Oligarch"
-------------- --------------


6. (C) The following day, Poloffs conducted a breakfast
meeting with three members of local United Democratic Front
(UDF) parties: Galina Lisitsina, local head of the Nadzeya
Women's Party, Vladimir Shantsev from the United Civic Party,
and local Labor Party representative Aleksandr Korolev. In
addition to the expected reports of harassment by local
authorities, participants in the meeting expressed misgivings
about "For Freedom" leader Aleksandr Milinkevich. Mr.
Shantsev, who formerly worked closely with Milinkevich,
described him as "acting like an oligarch" in relation to the

MINSK 00000799 002 OF 002


opposition movement. The UDF members contend that they are
sorely lacking funding, and that Milinkevich should dole out
some his resources to the very parties that supported him in
the past.

Security Presence on the Light Side
--------------


7. (C) Throughout the trip, the local government
representatives painted a rosy picture of their districts,
while at the same time soliciting financial assistance from
the United States. Similar to a recent visit to Vitebsk,
there was minimal presence of state media, local ideological
officers, and BKGB. Unusually, poloffs' meeting with
opposition leaders took place without hindrance. (Comment:
The treatment in Mogilyov oblast and Vitebsk oblast (ref A)
contrasts with aggressive questioning from ideology officers
during recent trial coverage in Soligirsk and Nesvizh (refs B
and C). End comment.)

Comment
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8. (C) Despite official pronouncements to the contrary, the
economy in the Mogilyov region shows signs of weakness. In
Krasnopolye, only make-work schemes prevent unemployment, and
there is negligible foreign investment. The local wood
processing factory, although hailed by the authorities as a
breakthrough, appears inefficient, has little capacity, and
is hindered by onerous taxes and increased energy expenses.
Considering the area is President Lukashenko's home
territory, it shows significant need for revitalization; a
marked contrast to the assistance lavished on Lukashenko's
home town (ref D). Although authorities do not openly
acknowledge the troubling economic situation, their numerous
appeals for USG assistance suggest that the lack of
development is a significant concern.
Moore