OPPOSITION'S PARLIAMENTARY CAMPAIGN PLANS MOVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000797 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/17/2017 TAGS: PGOV PINR BO SUBJECT: OPPOSITION'S PARLIAMENTARY CAMPAIGN PLANS MOVE FORWARD REF: MINSK 796 Classified By: Ambassador Karen Stewart for reason 1.4 (d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) The opposition coalition made substantial progress in August in agreeing to a formula for choosing a single democratic candidate per district for the 2008 parliamentary elections. Parties signing the agreement identified nearly 300 potential nominees for the 110 electoral districts, with multiple politicians set to vie for the nomination in urban areas. While a slate of candidates across the country would demonstrate the opposition's political viability, the coalition intends to devote most of its limited campaign resources to only its strongest candidates. The democratic coalition's ability to move forward quickly demonstrates it may have learned from its past mistakes. End summary. Most UDF Constituent Parties Agree on Nomination Formula -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Although Central Election Commission Head Lidiya Yermoshina announced publicly that October 12, 2008 would make the ideal date for parliamentary elections, the United Democratic Forces (UDF) are taking seriously rumors the elections could be set for sometime in the spring. On August 30, seven political parties and organizations within the UDF coalition agreed upon procedures for nominating opposition candidates for the 2008 parliamentary elections. The Belarusian Popular Front (BNF),United Civic Party (UCP), Belarusian Party of Communists (BPC),Belarusian Social Democratic Party (BSDP),the Party of Labor, Nadzeya, and Viktor Gorbachev's NGO representing entrepreneurs all endorsed the decision. Vladimir Novosyad's Party of Prosperity and Freedom (PPF) is also expected to sign the agreement. ¶3. (C) Each party signing the agreement will submit names of its members interested in running for one of the 110 parliamentary seats to the political council. BNF Deputy Chair Ales Yanukevich told pol officer parties submitted a total of 286 names so far, with 98 from BNF. UCP Deputy Chair Yaroslav Romanchuk told Acting Pol/Econ Chief his party provided about 70 names. A BPC Deputy Head, Valeriy Ukhlyanov, said the Communists put forward 47 contenders. Individuals not belonging to a party within the UDF have until mid-October to inform the coalition of their desire to seek nomination. Local coalitions will decide by consensus which person gets the nod. If more than one of the local constituents disapproves of a nominee, the national UDF political council will pick. Romanchuk said the coalition would pick nominees in October or November, or December at the latest. Competition an Urban Phenomenon -------------- ¶4. (C) Romanchuk said Minsk and all the regional capitals would have more than one would-be candidate for most parliamentary districts. He worried that very small parties such as Novosyad's PPF and BSDP Shushkevich would insist on getting multiple nominations for their supporters. Ukhlyanov predicted Gomel would present the most potential for conflict. ¶5. (C) Many rural districts, by contrast, would not attract a single independent activist, according to Romanchuk. Ukhlyanov was more optimistic, claiming that already the UDF received names for all but two districts. He confided, however, that in some districts parties put forth only one potential candidate and the coalition might prefer running no one at all to selecting a weak nominee. Top Nominees to Receive Concentrated Support -------------- ¶6. (C) Although the coalition aims to field candidates in most districts, its activists realize limited resources mean substantial support will only go to the strongest nominees. UCP Deputy Head Vladimir Chervonenko told Acting Pol/Econ Chief that he hoped at least ten opposition candidates would be able to spend up to USD 25,000 to run competitive campaigns. "For Freedom" as a Spoiler? -------------- MINSK 00000797 002 OF 002 ¶7. (C) Former Partnership Chair Aleksandr Shalayko told Acting Pol/Econ Chief he hoped most candidates from Aleksandr Milinkevich's "For Freedom" movement (FF) seeking to run in the elections would try to receive a nomination through the UDF. FF Deputy Head Yuriy Gubarevich said at a conference (reftel) that the movement views parliamentary elections primarily as a vehicle for promoting Milinkevich's standing ahead of another run for the presidency in 2011. Former UCP Deputy Aleksandr Dobrovolskiy struck a conciliatory note, telling us that his party had delayed a deadline for its leaders to choose between giving up their position in the party or giving up positions in FF. ¶8. (C) Gubarevich's conference presentation fleshed out earlier comments to us from Milinkevich that FF would support selected UDF candidates. Gubarevich said that for a UDF candidate to receive support from FF, the candidate would have to agree to campaign appearances by Milinkevich and to having Milinkevich's image on campaign literature, ostensibly to advance his chances in the 2011 presidential elections. Comment: UDF Learning from Past Mistakes -------------- ¶9. (C) In past parliamentary elections the opposition failed to quickly organize its campaign strategy. By moving forward relatively rapidly to build consensus on candidate selection, the UDF prevents the regime from accelerating the election schedule to preempt opposition candidate registration, in and of itself a complicated and time consuming procedure. On the other hand, the GOB may use early identification of candidates to begin applying pressure tactics to the few brave contestants sooner than ever. Stewart