EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - AUGUST 31, 2007

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 000758

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON ENRG BO
SUBJECT: EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - AUGUST 31, 2007



1. The following are brief items of interest compiled by Embassy
Minsk.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Civil Society
--------------

- Several Demonstrations for Kozulin Release Banned (para. 2)
- Opposition Youth Fined for Leaflets (para. 3)
- Police Detain Youths for Pro-Opposition Graffiti (para. 4)
- Prominent Human Rights NGO Denied Registration (para. 5)
- Monastery Conversion Suspended (para. 6)
- Six Parties Face Closure by Justice Ministry (para. 7)
- Police Disrupt Meeting with Outlawed Pastor in Gomel (para. 8)
- Police in Brest Briefly Detain Youth Activists (para. 9)
- Supreme Court Dissolves Belarusian Green Party (para. 10)
- Two Polish Traffickers Arrested in Grodno (para. 11)

Domestic Economy
--------------

- Beltransgaz to Expand Gas Storage Capacity (para. 12)
- Statistics Ministry Releases Potash Export Data (para. 13)
- Economics Ministry to Raise Ag Procurement Prices (para. 14)

International Trade
--------------

- American Investors to Launch Juice Production (para. 15)
- Belarus Continues Negotiating Loan with Russia (para. 16)

- Quote of the Week (para. 17)

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Civil Society
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2. Several Demonstrations for Kozulin Release Banned

City authorities across Belarus have denied applications to
demonstrate for the release of former presidential candidate
Alexander Kozulin. Authorities have rejected 25 of nearly 50
applications so far, with the other applications still pending.


3. Opposition Youth Fined for Leaflets

On August 24, the Minsk district court fined youth opposition
activist Pavel Baranovsky 186,000 rubles (USD 90) for distributing
opposition leaflets in central Minsk. Police arrested Baranovsky on
July 24, and he was later sentenced to three days in jail on petty
hooliganism charges. Baranovsky admitted his guilt, noting he was
passing out leaflets because he wanted "Belarus to become a member
of Europe".


4. Police Detain Youths for Pro-Opposition Graffiti

On August 25, police in Nesvizh, Minsk Oblast, arrested four
opposition affiliated youths for allegedly writing "Belarus is
Sacred" on a fence. Authorities released one suspect, a minor, but
detained the other three to await charges of petty hooliganism. A
court later acquitted the three from those charges, though they are
expected to face administrative charges of damaging a structure.


5. Prominent Human Rights NGO Denied Registration

On August 24, the Ministry of Justice denied registration for human
rights NGO Vyasna. Reasons cited by the Ministry include that the
NGO has the same name as an organization liquidated in 2003, the
group's charter contained numerous errors, including "vague
statements of its activities and goals," misspelled names, wrong
birthdates, and that 20 of the 69 founders had convictions for
various felonies. Vyasna founder and lawyer Vladimir Labkovich
expressed doubt any appeals would be fruitful, saying the denial was
"politically motivated". The group submitted all the required
paperwork for registration on July 23, and provided the Ministry
with a copy of the UN Human Rights Committee's assertion that the
NGO's liquidation was illegal.


6. Monastery Conversion Suspended

Minsk authorities have suspended the conversion of a former
Bernardine monastery into a hotel and entertainment center, but made
no mention of any decision to return the monastery building to the
Catholic community. Catholic religious organizations have made
several appeals for its return. Belarusian Christian Democracy
Party coordinator Pavel Nozdrya expressed satisfaction over the
authorities' decision, and added that community's appeals yielded
successful results. Since March 2007, Catholic community members
and volunteers gathered over 20,000 signatures in support of return

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of the former monastery to the church.


7. Six Parties Face Closure by Justice Ministry

On August 24, the Ministry of Justice issued official warnings to
six registered opposition parties -- the Belarusian Popular Front,
the Belarusian Social Democratic Party "Gramada," the Belarusian
Social Sports Party, the Belarusian Environmental Party of Greens,
and the Republican Party and the Social Democratic Party of People's
Concord -- for failing to fulfill the requirement that all
registered parties have chapters in Minsk and at least four other
regional capitals. The Ministry announced that the parties will
face closure if they fail to comply with the regulations. In
response to these warnings, certain parties complained that while
they had chapters in the regional capitals, these chapters lacked
officially registered addresses due to stringent regulations that
govern the location of party chapter headquarters.


8. Police Disrupt Meeting with Outlawed Pastor in Gomel

On August 26, police broke up a meeting between civil society
activists, members of the Belarusian Language Society, and Ernest
Sabila, a pastor of the outlawed Belarusian Evangelical Church. The
police broke into a house in Gomel which served as local chapter
headquarters of the United Civic Party, claiming that a robbery
suspect was thought to be inside. Once inside, the officers
demanded identification from all present and detained several of the
meeting's participants. The Gomel chapter of the United Civic Party
has filed a complaint with the District Prosecutor's office
regarding the intrusion.


9. Police in Brest Briefly Detain Youth Activists

On August 26, police detained three youth activists in Brest for
putting up fliers that called for the release of Pavel Severinets,
an opposition leader recently sentenced to 15 days in prison.
Police released the youths after making them write explanations of
their activities and warning them that they could face minor civil
offence charges in relation to the incident.


10. Supreme Court Dissolves Belarusian Green Party

On August 29, the Supreme Court of Belarus officially dissolved the
Belarusian Environmental Party of Greens. The ruling is the result
of a lawsuit brought against the party by the Ministry of Justice
that stated that it did not fulfill regulations regarding its
charter, number of chapters, and location of chapter headquarters.
The party did not contest the lawsuit, having already decided in
March 2007 to dissolve on its own.


11. Two Polish Traffickers Arrested in Grodno

On August 29, Grodno police arrested two Polish citizens at a
Belarusian border crossing in connection with trafficking women for
sexual exploitation. The Poles rented an apartment in Grodno, and
according to police reports, organized a contest to pick out three
girls to be trafficked to their brothel in a Polish city of Sanok.
One of the traffickers was reportedly a former police officer.

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Domestic Economy
--------------


12. Beltransgaz to Expand Gas Storage Capacity

On August 27, the Belarusian gas monopoly Beltransgaz announced
plans to construct a new natural gas storage facility in Mozyr. The
facility will nearly double the monopoly's available storage
capacity for gas, currently 660 million cubic meters, and greatly
increase its daily output of natural gas, currently at 4 million
cubic meters. Construction of the facility will begin in 2008, and
will help Belarus avoid gas deficits during the winter peak as well
as ensure a continuous supply of gas to Europe.


13. Statistics Ministry Releases Potash Export Data

On August 27, the Statistics Ministry reported that the average
price for Belarusian potash fertilizer in the first half of 2007
rose 8.5 percent from the year before to 276 dollars per ton.
During the same period Belarus exported 2.157 million tons of
potash, a 53.8 percent rise from the previous year. The largest
importers of Belarusian potash in 2007 include China (529,000 tons),
Brazil (369,000 tons),and the United States. (235,200 tons).


14. Economics Ministry to Raise Ag Procurement Prices

On August 28, the Economics Ministry announced that, in response to
the rising cost of energy and fertilizer, it will increase the
procurement price for milk by 5 percent and the store price for milk
by 2 percent. Prices for bread and vdka will also be increased by

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3 percent in the near future.

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International Trade
--------------


15. American Investors to Launch Juice Production

Oscar Chemerinsky, the acting director of the International Finance
Corporation's Agribusiness Department, told reporters on August 28
that the newly-established Detroit Belarus Juice Company will launch
juice production in the city of Bobruysk before the end of the year.
IFC will issue a USD 8 million loan, while Detroit Investments
Group will provide USD 12 million to establish the facility. The
producers plan to use mostly local inputs, and hope to increase
consumption and reduce prices in Belarus' 8 million deciliter juice
market. In 2002, the group established the Detroit Belarus Brewing
Company, now Belarus' second largest brewery.


16. Belarus Continues Negotiating Loan with Russia

Belarus' Vice-Premier Andrey Kobyakov has resumed talks with his
Russian counterpart Sergey Naryshkin on securing a USD 1.5 billion
loan to mitigate higher Russian natural gas prices. An anonymous
source in the Russian government alleges that the deal has been
cleared on the political level, though certain technical issues
remain. Russia insists on 8.5 percent interest and stocks in
Belarusian companies as collateral.

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17. Quote of the Week
--------------

Belarusian writer Svetlana Aleksiyevich on Belarus and Aleksandr
Lukashenko:

"Belarus has socialism at its worst -- a veritable mixture of prison
and kindergarten."

"We'll be paying back the gas debt, and as a result, everything will
be sold, plundered and gobbled up by tycoons -- not by Belarusian,
but by Russian tycoons. Lukashenko's goal is power and he will pay
for it."

Stewart