RUSSIAN AMBASSADOR IN MINSK SPECULATES ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 000739 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/28/2017 TAGS: PREL PINR MNUC BO RS SUBJECT: RUSSIAN AMBASSADOR IN MINSK SPECULATES ON PLACEMENT OF NUCLEAR ASSETS IN BELARUS REF: 06 MINSK 1231 Classified By: Charge Jonathan Moore for reason 1.4 (d). ¶1. (U) In an Interfax interview that has circulated widely through the international media beginning on August 27, Russian Ambassador to Belarus Aleksandr Surikov was asked whether Russia might station new military assets on Belarusian territory in response to USG moves to enhance European anti-missile defenses. Surikov allegedly stated, in part: "This depends on the level of our (Russian-Belarusian) political integration. And (it also) depends on the points of views of experts, diplomats, the military: (is it) necessary, possible, when, how. I have in mind assets, related to nuclear weapons." ¶2. (C) By referring to "the level of our political integration," Surikov seems to us to be underscoring the fact that integration between Russia and Belarus is going absolutely nowhere. Earlier in the interview, Surikov was dismissive of the GOB stance regarding bilateral anti-missile defense plans. ¶3. (U) Belarusian MFA spokesperson Mariya Vanshina noted August 28 that Belarus and Russia have not had any discussions regarding deployment of nuclear weapons; the Belarusian MOD also chimed in, saying that the topic of any such deployment would be confined to the realm of "higher policy." Comment -------------- ¶4. (C) We would tend to agree that Surikov's remarks have incited far more controversy than they merit; he has now refuted the interview in subsequent remarks to the media. Surikov himself is known to us as insightful and prescient, with a stronmg sense of disdain for the vast majority of his Belarusian interlocutors; his comments on last year's energy crisis with Russia, predicting Gazprom's strategy (reftel), were particularly accurate. Lukashenko -- whose opinions and statements vary widely -- previously rejected the deployment of nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory as recently as June 24. We defer of course to Embassy Moscow to evaluate whether Surikov's comments represent deeper Russian sentiment. Moore