EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - August 24, 2007

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000728 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON ENRG BO SUBJECT: EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - August 24, 2007 ¶1. The following are brief items of interest compiled by Embassy Minsk. TABLE OF CONTENTS Civil Society -------------- - Neo-Nazis Threaten Vitebsk Activist (para. 2) - Police Prevent Solidarity Demonstration (para. 3) - Vendors Hold Spontaneous Protest at Minsk Market (para. 4) - Opposition and NGOs Hold Forum on Benefit Cuts (para. 5) - Police Disrupt Camping Trip, Detain Youths (para. 6) Domestic Economy -------------- - Cyprus Company Buys Full Control of GSM Provider (para. 7) - Fewer Companies in the Red (para. 8) - Minister: Belarus Cannot Do Without Nuclear Energy (para. 9) - S&P Rates Belarus B+ Long-Term, B Short-Term (para. 10) International Trade -------------- - Belarus Eyeing Increased Ties With Vietnam (para. 11) - Quote of the Week (para. 12) -------------- Civil Society -------------- ¶2. Neo-Nazis Threaten Vitebsk Activist On August 17, four opposition activists in Vitebsk received threatening letters signed by members of the neo-Nazi Russian National Unity organization. The letters are a response to the red and white opposition flags that are placed monthly throughout Vitebsk, and threaten Miron, the anonymous figure who takes responsibility for the flags, with "punishment" if he flies the white-red-white nationalist symbol again. ¶3. Police Prevent Solidarity Demonstration On August 16, police in riot gear dispersed a demonstration in Minsk held in solidarity with Belarusian political prisoners. When participants approached Freedom square to demonstrate with candles and pictures of the prisoners, they were surrounded by police and forced onto a trolley, which took them to a market in another area of the city. A similar demonstration was held unhindered elsewhere in Minsk, though opposition leaders were followed closely by plainclothes policemen and youth activist Nikita Sasim was arrested later that night. Friends with Sasim at the time tried to resist the police, but were beaten. One, Tatyana Tishkevich, was kicked in the head and suffered swollen kidneys, which kept her hospitalized for over a week. The day after Sasim's arrest, a Minsk Court convicted him of petty hooliganism for allegedly using obscene language and sentenced him to ten days in prison. The demonstrations were part of a "Day of Solidarity" remembrance, held on the sixteenth of every month since September 2005 in memory of two opposition figures who went missing on the sixteenth of September 1999. ¶4. Vendors Hold Spontaneous Protest at Minsk Market On August 19, over one hundred vendors at the Zhdanovichi shopping complex held a protest against government tax agents. The agents were threatening to confiscate the entire stock of a coat-seller's stall after a salesperson there failed to produce paperwork in compliance with new regulations. Police broke up the demonstration shortly afterwards and the tax agents left to obtain a confiscation warrant from a court. The spokesperson for a local small business association later released an open letter to the tax ministry criticizing the new regulations and described the protest as a "nervous breakdown" following recent government pressure on small businesses. ¶5. Opposition and NGOs Hold Forum on Benefit Cuts On August 19, about 40 representatives of opposition parties and NGOs held a forum in Minsk to discuss the extensive social benefits cut that the GOB has scheduled for December. The meeting resulted in plans to hold two street protests against the cut and a resolution criticizing the cut and the legislators who approved it. ¶6. Police Disrupt Camping Trip, Detain Youths On August 18, police apprehended seventeen youth members of the MINSK 00000728 002 OF 002 Belarusian Popular Front while they were on a camping trip in the Brest region. The officers then brought them to a local police station to await charges of petty hooliganism for allegedly using obscene language. Later, however, the police escorted the opposition members onto a Minsk-bound train and released them without charges. -------------- Domestic Economy -------------- ¶7. Cyprus Company Buys Full Control of GSM Provider Interfax news service reported on August 22 that SB-Telecom of Cyprus to take over Velcom, Belarus' second largest GSM phone services provider. SB-Telecom, which already olds a 49-percent stake in Velcom, will purchase the remaining 51-percent stake from the state. This will make Velcom, which has a client base of 2.7 million people and is on the top-twenty list of Belarus' biggest taxpayers, a fully foreign-owned business. The price and other details of the deal have not been disclosed. ¶8. Fewer Companies in the Red On August 21, the Statistics Ministry announced that 12.4 percent of all Belarusian companies are operating at a loss, down 14.2 percent in 2006. The rate has decreased in the industrial sector from 23.2 to 20.3 percent, and the transport sector from 13.8 to 12.4 percent, while it has increased in the agriculture sector from 1.7 to 2 percent, construction from 11.4 to 13.4 percent, and communications from 5.7 to 7.1 percent. ¶9. Minister: Belarus Cannot Do Without Nuclear Energy Economics Minister Nikolay Zaychenko stated on August 21 that Belarus cannot do without atomic energy. "In view of that situation which is developing with Russia and the increasing cost of gas, power production has become very expensive", he declared, pointing out that the majority of power stations in the country use gas. The question of constructing an atomic power station in Belarus, according to minister, "is essentially decided. In order to provide the country energy based on locally-produced fuels, we must turn to non-conventional energy sources." ¶10. S&P Rates Belarus B+ Long-Term, B Short-Term On August 21, The Finance Ministry announced that the Standard and Poor's Ratings Service had bestowed on Belarus a B+ long-term sovereign credit rating and a B short-term sovereign credit rating. According to the Ministry, the ratings result from relatively high wealth and development levels, low general government debt, a relatively strong external balance sheet, significant economic potential, and a highly educated workforce. The Ministry said that this confirms Belarus' economic stability and attractiveness to foreign investors. -------------- International Trade -------------- ¶11. Belarus Eyeing Increased Ties with Vietnam During an August 20 meeting with Vietnam's Public Security Minister, President Lukashenko said he hopes to meet the Vietnamese president to address political and economic cooperation and to possibly sign further bilateral agreements. At present, annual trade between the countries amounts to less than USD 50 million, but has experienced 25 percent growth in recent years. Lukashenko said Belarus would like to become Vietnam's strongest partner in Europe and is committed to dramatically expanding trade. In a separate meeting at the headquarters of the Belarusian Almaz anti-terror unit, Interior Minister Victor Naumov met with Le Hong An, Vietnam's Minister of Public Security. The two discussed cooperation in law enforcement, particularly regarding training and anti-terrorism police units. -------------- ¶12. Quote of the Week -------------- Is that your final answer? -- Eighteen year-old Tatyana Tishkevich, whom militia members beat while forcibly dispersing a Solidarity Day demonstration on August 16: "I have already submitted the application [to press charges] to the militia. In the morning the militiaman came to the hospital, but he didn't want me to write anything. He would ask 'Is it your final decision to press charges?' I unambiguously answered 'Yes, it is.'" Moore