GRODNO OPPOSITION UNIFIED, LOCAL GOB OFFICIALS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000687 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/09/2017 TAGS: PGOV ECON PHUM BO SUBJECT: GRODNO OPPOSITION UNIFIED, LOCAL GOB OFFICIALS OPTIMISTIC REF: A. MINSK 003 ¶B. MINSK 676 Classified By: Ambassador Karen Stewart for reason 1.4 (d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Ambassador recently traveled to two cities in Belarus' western Grodno region to survey the local political and economic landscape. The regional authorities were predictably optimistic about Belarus' economic development and foreign investment. Meanwhile, local pro-democracy forces remain skeptical about the regime's economic projections and the purpose of a new GOB-backed NGO. Coalition leaders are planning a unified parliamentary election campaign based on an alternative economic strategy. End summary. Authorities Tout Economy Despite Energy Price Hikes -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Ambassador recently traveled to Belarus' western Grodno region (Oblast) to discuss the local political-economic situation with GOB and opposition politicians. On August 2, Grodno Oblast Executive Committee Chair Vladimir Savchenko boasted to Ambassador that his region is experiencing an economic boom with a 10-percent GDP growth rate and an industrial growth rate of 15 percent. Savchenko lavished high praise on Grodno's fertilizer industry that employees 7,000 persons and has recently attracted strong interest among investors from China, which has become the region's second trading partner behind Russia. Savchenko claimed that his government's recent investments in new conservation technologies had rendered rises in energy prices (ref A and B) "insignificant" vis-a-vis overall production costs and invited U.S. businessmen to invest in his region. ¶3. (SBU) A day earlier, members of the Mosty District Executive Committee (Rayispolkom) described a similarly rosy picture of their district's economy. Rayispolkom Chair Aleksey Shafarevich touted Mosty's unemployment rate of 1.6 and with very high growth. Shafarevich attributed this growth to a recent 79-percent jump in production at the local wood factory that employs 2,774 residents and had also attracted significant Chinese investment. He predicted continued dramatic growth, owing to Iranian interest in investing in local facilities for production of automobile electrical wiring. Opposition Skeptical about the Local Economy... -------------- -- 
¶4. (C) Grodno Region's democratic opposition and civil society leadership was skeptical regarding the region's reported economic performance. Mosty democratic opposition council member and former Malady Front opposition youth leader Dmitriy Kukhley observed that the wood factory (where he is employed) could not increase production quickly even with heavy foreign investment. (Note: Kukhley revealed that the factory administration had attempted to pressure him not to leave work to meet with Ambassador during his lunch hour. End note.) Noting heavy migration from Grodno's rural to urban areas, Kukhley also expressed serious doubts whether his district's purportedly high agricultural and meat output could continue. Moreover, opposition Belarusian Party of Communists Grodno representative Anatoliy Ivanchyk speculated that the Lukashenko regime's recent diplomatic initiatives with Iran and China could suggest it is afraid of an economic crisis catalyzed by continued energy dependence on Russia. Is Wary of New GOB "NGO"... -------------- ¶5. (C) Opposition Belarusian Popular Front representative Sergey Malchyk predicted that the regime's fear of an economic crisis may cause it to begin mock political reform as part of its overtures toward the EU. Malchyk elaborated that the recent creation of the pro-GOB NGO "Belaya Rus" was likely the regime's first step in creating its own political party designed to dominate the Belarusian parliament should the regime allow opposition parties to win token seats in the 2008 elections to improve its image abroad. Grodno opposition United Civic Party Chair (UCP) and local United Democratic Forces (UDF) leader Yuriy Istomin predicted that the transformation of Belaya Rus into a political party would coincide with GOB efforts to change Belarus' electoral system MINSK 00000687 002 OF 002 to proportional representation, which would lessen incentives for cooperation among UDF members. Istomin and others pledged that the Grodno UDF members would press on with a united parliamentary election campaign. And Views Its Own Economic Plan, Satellite TV As Answer -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) The consensus of Istomin and his colleagues was that the centerpiece of UDF's parliamentary campaign must be a strategy for economic development. When Ambassador inquired about a development plan for Grodno unveiled by UCP Deputy Chair Yaroslav Romanchuk during the recent local election campaign, Malchyk and Istomin described the strategy as a good start but dated since it relied on 2005 economic figures. The opposition leaders agreed to work together on an updated strategy and encourage national UDF leaders to develop an economic strategy for all of Belarus. ¶7. (C) When Ambassador asked about how the West could support the UDF during its parliamentary campaign, the opposition leaders uniformly advocated Poland's plans for satellite television broadcasts into Belarus. Noting over thirty satellite dishes in his apartment building alone, Mosty Belarusian Popular Front leader Lev Bartysh contended that satellite television would be a particularly effective means of disseminating alternative information in regions outside Minsk and would likely reach many Belarusians who do not have internet access. All opposition leaders in Grodno and Mosty agreed that the lack of alternative news sources in regions outside Minsk remained the single greatest obstacle to Belarus' democratic transition. Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) Nothing about this trip was particularly surprising -- except, perhaps, the relative politeness of the ever-present GOB state television reporters and ideological officers (one in Grodno contritely apologized to Ambassador for having to be so insistent in requesting to attend our meetings with opposition leaders). The local GOB leaders were predictably upbeat about Belarus' economic situation and intolerant of dissent. Meanwhile, the seemingly high level of collegiality and cooperation among the region's pro-democracy forces in the wake of the somewhat acrimonious UDF congress and regional conferences was not surprising but nevertheless encouraging. Stewart