GRODNO OPPOSITION UNIFIED, LOCAL GOB OFFICIALS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000687

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/09/2017
TAGS: PGOV ECON PHUM BO
SUBJECT: GRODNO OPPOSITION UNIFIED, LOCAL GOB OFFICIALS
OPTIMISTIC

REF: A. MINSK 003


B. MINSK 676

Classified By: Ambassador Karen Stewart for reason 1.4 (d).

Summary
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1. (SBU) Ambassador recently traveled to two cities in
Belarus' western Grodno region to survey the local political
and economic landscape. The regional authorities were
predictably optimistic about Belarus' economic development
and foreign investment. Meanwhile, local pro-democracy
forces remain skeptical about the regime's economic
projections and the purpose of a new GOB-backed NGO.
Coalition leaders are planning a unified parliamentary
election campaign based on an alternative economic strategy.
End summary.

Authorities Tout Economy Despite Energy Price Hikes
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2. (SBU) Ambassador recently traveled to Belarus' western
Grodno region (Oblast) to discuss the local
political-economic situation with GOB and opposition
politicians. On August 2, Grodno Oblast Executive Committee
Chair Vladimir Savchenko boasted to Ambassador that his
region is experiencing an economic boom with a 10-percent GDP
growth rate and an industrial growth rate of 15 percent.
Savchenko lavished high praise on Grodno's fertilizer
industry that employees 7,000 persons and has recently
attracted strong interest among investors from China, which
has become the region's second trading partner behind Russia.
Savchenko claimed that his government's recent investments
in new conservation technologies had rendered rises in energy
prices (ref A and B) "insignificant" vis-a-vis overall
production costs and invited U.S. businessmen to invest in
his region.


3. (SBU) A day earlier, members of the Mosty District
Executive Committee (Rayispolkom) described a similarly rosy
picture of their district's economy. Rayispolkom Chair
Aleksey Shafarevich touted Mosty's unemployment rate of 1.6
and with very high growth. Shafarevich attributed this
growth to a recent 79-percent jump in production at the local
wood factory that employs 2,774 residents and had also
attracted significant Chinese investment. He predicted
continued dramatic growth, owing to Iranian interest in
investing in local facilities for production of automobile
electrical wiring.

Opposition Skeptical about the Local Economy...
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4. (C) Grodno Region's democratic opposition and civil
society leadership was skeptical regarding the region's
reported economic performance. Mosty democratic opposition
council member and former Malady Front opposition youth
leader Dmitriy Kukhley observed that the wood factory (where
he is employed) could not increase production quickly even
with heavy foreign investment. (Note: Kukhley revealed that
the factory administration had attempted to pressure him not
to leave work to meet with Ambassador during his lunch hour.
End note.) Noting heavy migration from Grodno's rural to
urban areas, Kukhley also expressed serious doubts whether
his district's purportedly high agricultural and meat output
could continue. Moreover, opposition Belarusian Party of
Communists Grodno representative Anatoliy Ivanchyk speculated
that the Lukashenko regime's recent diplomatic initiatives
with Iran and China could suggest it is afraid of an economic
crisis catalyzed by continued energy dependence on Russia.


Is Wary of New GOB "NGO"...
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5. (C) Opposition Belarusian Popular Front representative
Sergey Malchyk predicted that the regime's fear of an
economic crisis may cause it to begin mock political reform
as part of its overtures toward the EU. Malchyk elaborated
that the recent creation of the pro-GOB NGO "Belaya Rus" was
likely the regime's first step in creating its own political
party designed to dominate the Belarusian parliament should
the regime allow opposition parties to win token seats in the
2008 elections to improve its image abroad. Grodno
opposition United Civic Party Chair (UCP) and local United
Democratic Forces (UDF) leader Yuriy Istomin predicted that
the transformation of Belaya Rus into a political party would
coincide with GOB efforts to change Belarus' electoral system

MINSK 00000687 002 OF 002


to proportional representation, which would lessen incentives
for cooperation among UDF members. Istomin and others
pledged that the Grodno UDF members would press on with a
united parliamentary election campaign.

And Views Its Own Economic Plan, Satellite TV As Answer
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6. (C) The consensus of Istomin and his colleagues was that
the centerpiece of UDF's parliamentary campaign must be a
strategy for economic development. When Ambassador inquired
about a development plan for Grodno unveiled by UCP Deputy
Chair Yaroslav Romanchuk during the recent local election
campaign, Malchyk and Istomin described the strategy as a
good start but dated since it relied on 2005 economic
figures. The opposition leaders agreed to work together on
an updated strategy and encourage national UDF leaders to
develop an economic strategy for all of Belarus.


7. (C) When Ambassador asked about how the West could
support the UDF during its parliamentary campaign, the
opposition leaders uniformly advocated Poland's plans for
satellite television broadcasts into Belarus. Noting over
thirty satellite dishes in his apartment building alone,
Mosty Belarusian Popular Front leader Lev Bartysh contended
that satellite television would be a particularly effective
means of disseminating alternative information in regions
outside Minsk and would likely reach many Belarusians who do
not have internet access. All opposition leaders in Grodno
and Mosty agreed that the lack of alternative news sources in
regions outside Minsk remained the single greatest obstacle
to Belarus' democratic transition.

Comment
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8. (C) Nothing about this trip was particularly surprising
-- except, perhaps, the relative politeness of the
ever-present GOB state television reporters and ideological
officers (one in Grodno contritely apologized to Ambassador
for having to be so insistent in requesting to attend our
meetings with opposition leaders). The local GOB leaders
were predictably upbeat about Belarus' economic situation and
intolerant of dissent. Meanwhile, the seemingly high level
of collegiality and cooperation among the region's
pro-democracy forces in the wake of the somewhat acrimonious
UDF congress and regional conferences was not surprising but
nevertheless encouraging.
Stewart